Best Performances of the first set of prep races so far...your thoughts

My good friend, the VET,  from the Cheddar Curtin (that's what we FIB's--F'N Illinois Bastards) call our friends from Wisconsin, prompted me to put up this post.

What horses do you think have been the most impressive so far in the TC races? Also, where will they land next?

For me, No. 1, it's RULE in the Sam Davis. I know it wasn't the most stellar of fields, but that burst in the final 2F was out of site, and very Quality Road-like. I think he goes to the Wood.

Next was Eskendereya....WOW. Another move that blew them away....and this will translate in the FLA Derby, which I guess is where he will go next.

For me, the next two most impressive performances came from horses in two underling preps....it;s a toss up betiween El Camino winner CONNOMARA, who overcame a horrible start to come back and win Zenyatta-style... and Dublin in the SW.

Like the others who have won the the el Camino before him, and have gone on to upper 6 figures/lower 7 figures career earnings, I think he will end up in a CA prep race or two, just like Chocolate Candy, Bwana Charlie and others of this ilk. Very nice horse, biut he will need to beat Lucky and others to make it to the first Saturday in May..

Then there is Dublin, who had bad early racing luck and closed like an absoulte monster in the Southwest finishing second. For old times sake, you'd love to see D. Wayne have one more shot at the glory. I don't think he'll go to the FLA Derby, but I do believe he will end up in the Arkansas Derby and will compete to win.

I also somewhat liked Jackson Bend's performance in the FOY, but I have to say that maybe, just mabye, he is not one for the distance. I m not sure he got a real good ride here, and  I will guess he will end up in the FLA Derby.However, if Esky is there, maybe no shot, unless there is trouble. YOU KNOW Buddy's Saint wil be in the FLA Derby and will get a trip with less trouble.

Lastly, Discreetly Mine was outstanding in the Rebel, but I think that that the FG speed bias helped him to win. My guess is that he goes to the ILL Derby, which is Todd's style with his "B" Players (He's won it with Cowboy Cal, Pollard's Vision and  Distilled, all of whom had gerat careers in G-3 and related stakes.)

Your thoughts?

Think you already know my feelings.
Rule, on to the Wood.

I got down on four horses in the first futures pool, with Eskendereya and Rule being two of them.  Rule's opening odds in the first pool were 12-1 on Friday.  On Saturday, he wins the Sam Davis impressively.  On Sunday, he closes at 24-1.  I thought that the odds would go the other way, but I was wrong.  I was at the track Sunday a little before the pool was closing, so I decided that I should get a little action at that price, because I was similarly impressed, Mike. 

I thought D'Funnybone performance was great......This horse looks for real.....Before Saturday he has been great with the exception being the poly around 2 turns for the first time......

I have been leaning Dublin before Saturday and still like him. Rule and Eskendereya are hard to ignore also.

It cant be understated what TAP is doing on the track these days, we have seen this movie before haven't we? Last year Milkshake Mullins went ballistic when informed of the new drug testing measures that were to be in effect , thus leading him to scratch his horse. As that story played out its no wonder he was scratched as they were hiding injury w/ every drug in his bag. TAP never was able to duplicate his numbers on the first Saturday in May as well as breeders cup events, so will he be able to this year? Unfortunately that appears to be the storyline for me as my gut tells me TAP has the new moveup meds workin and he must be seriously considered whenever he shows up.

As for the best performence its tough not to like Eskey ,but you cant get an easier trip than that.

I thought Stay Put's run, my key in the Risen Star, was pretty decent as  the race shape and trip made it impossible for him to get to the top. I look for him to run big next out but has too much work to do to be fast enough by May...i think.

I certainly agree w/ my man Mikey as Dublin certainly showed enough in the SW to get back on the radar. Still, his decline in the fall last year has me skeptical but will be watching closely.

Would you believe Rule could have been had at 80-1 and Conveyance at 150-1. YES I know ...who knew, but if you get one of these very early and  lucky enough to get him to Churchill ...  ohhhhhh.....Ma-Ma- Mia

Also something tells me Dublin is a horse I may want to get a future on just for the hell of it.

Cant argue with any mentioned above.
Think there may be another  Giacomo waiting in the wings

When I watch prep races for the kentucky derby I look for a horse that is willing to rate off the lead, show composure, and finish strong. The only horse that showed me these traits is Eskendereya. He was on 12 second splits all the way from the 6 furlong pole home. He was caught 4 wide around the first turn(due to gulfstream's configuration) and still ran a monster 106. Peak to early??? I don't buy into that nonsense because most derby winners have a 100+ beyer going into the derby, then run around a 106-108 in the derby and 8-10 duplicate that in the Preakness. So am i worried, no. He may regress a little off that race in Fla derby but I wouldn't mind seeing him not fully cranked up. He then will have 6 weeks to recover and get ready for the derby.

The second most impressive was Rule but I am not overly impressed with this horse. He faced a suspect field with limited speed with a total of 7 horses. He didn't show the ability to rate as every time a horse got eye to eye with him he accelerated. With only one/2 races left before the derby I have no interest in a horse that has not shown an ability to rate. Although some may think he finished strong I personally didn't see that. The time from the half mile to the 6furlong pole was approx 25 secs, from 6 furlong to the mile clip another 25 secs, finally his last 1/16 of a mile was pushing 7 seconds. That is not derby finishing speed. I will give him a slight break considering he ran a 98 beyer off a 2 month layoff. He had a dream trip on the rail in a small/overmatched field.

As long as Pletcher doesn't mess this one up Eskendereya will be tough to beat come May 1st. 106 beyer second race of the year is IMPRESSIVE.

Hey boys......great comments, thanks!

While a 106 BSF may well indeed be impressive in a horses second race of the year, it does not bode well for his triple crown chances and saying that peeking too early is nonsense is not supported by the facts. While these figures are not BSF's they do line up on scale and a 106 would be a serious figure. There have been  19 spring 3yo's who have run elite fig's like this and only 7 have made it to the gate in the derby. Two of the seven have won the derby, Smarty Jones who didnt approach his top in the derby win and Big Brown who amazingly ran a new top in the derby.Last year the 2 enormous fig horses both failed to make the gate as IWR was a cripple and druged to his eyeballs to keep him in training and Quality Road who was knocked off the trail.

Im the first to decry conclusions based on small sample sizes but this form of analysis has held up for me over decades and is the backbone of my form of handicapping.Take it for whats it worth as i wont eliminate Esky on this angle alone, but running a fig like this in February cant be good for his overall development. SJ and BB both ran their figs in late March not Feb and they were both freaks and Esky could very well be  a freak also.Time will tell.

Just read on drf.com that Lucky might be going to the Rebel....a bold move for Baffert, but he'll find out if he has a dirt animal or not rather than having to wait for the Wood when it might be too late.

Uh Oh Bango to the Rebel, as Dublin, Noble's Promise (one I like) and EZ Dreamer might be there too.

Cannamera to the Santa Anita Derby, as I figured.

I am keeping an eye on Conveyence, among others. For all the talk about Dublin in that race, watch the replay. It reminds me of last year's Preakness when people said another 100 feet and MTB catches my girl. The replays don't support that. Conveyence finished with his head up and pointed. Something tells me he had a but more if needed. Yes, he still needs to prove the distance and dirt as well, and it would be nice to see if he can win off the pace, but just maybe he can do it from the front. That was a wicked quarter in the SW.

I agree w/ you DJ that he was a much improved horse .I hated the way he raced over the synthetic and thought he moved way forward his first time on dirt. Connections contemplating goin to Dubai which i think is a huge mistake , especially when he showed such improvement over the dirt. I look for a strong performence if he remains on the trail hopefully in the Wood.

"only 7 have made it to the gate in the derby. Two of the seven have won the derby," approx 29% winners

So you are saying this is bad odds? What about Street sense he ran a 102 his first race of his 3 year old campaign. Funny cide ran a 110 the race before the derby... second race of his 3 yo campaign. Empire maker ran 108,111 second and third race of 3yo campaign and if he didn't have an awful trip he would have won the derby.

A clearer way of interepting this small sample is to to compare the 19 who have run those figs to only 2 making the gate. These are not BSF's im refering to as i said, but they are often  close enough for comparison sakes, but many times they are not close and the horses you mentioned didnt record elite figures .SS did as a 2yo but the figures i use didnt give him elite figs till he paird it in the derby.

Loose if the horse doesnt make the derby then I won't bet him. If you are talking about betting futures well.... they are for suckers

Dont take this as gospel as it comes from a friend of mine , but he says that Barbaro is the only 3yo colt in the last 9 years  who won a graded stakes before mid March to go on and win a classic race.And we know what happened to him.

May not have been the best performance but being a Gulfstream guy Eskendereya's style and win is looking like last years Quality Road wins prior to the Derby both with Johnny V. aboard and Pletcher.  Florida Derby sets up perfectly for him and he'll make it to the BIg Show in Kentucky if healthy.

I loved Quality Road last year, and bet him heavy in the Breeders Cup. Think he was by far the best  3 year old colt last year when healthy.

I like Eskendereya performance as well, and like that he is out Giant's Causeway. But as always, its awful early to be handing out roses just yet.

I agree with fatroll07 Eskendereya looked the best so far he has really taken to gulfstream going wide that first turn didn’t hurt (cut to the rail before hitting backstretch) so he didn’t lose that much ground and he is the only horse with two turn 100+ Beyer this year looked ultra impressive

RULE was very impressive at Tampa and will show back up on 3/12 down there.  May face an up and comer named Soaring Empire.

@SpotPlays

Picking Winners One Play at a Time

Wish I had something more insightful to add but Eskendereya simply looked most impressive of the preps i've seen so far. Like the stalker style as well for the Derby... as it will not be a gate to wire. Will continue to watch...

eskendereya wins. good night. game over

Liked the way the 5 Setsuko closed for 2nd in the S A Derby.
Looked like he would relish 11/4.

Lot can happen in a 20 horse field as we all know

2010 Santa Anita Derby - Santa Anita - Sidney's