2024 Kentucky Derby

As one can see, some jockeys are listed multiple times (only because they were the last known jockey from the last race) and they'll have to make a decision as to which mount they'll ride.

Statistical data came from this years Media Guide.  I presume it to be accurate.

Saturday, April 27th 2024, post positions for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby will be drawn live between the third and fourth races at Churchill Downs.

Here is the official field for the 150th Run For The Roses, better known as the Kentucky Derby, with their morning-line odds.

1. Dornoch, 20/1

2. Sierra Leon, 3/1

3. Mystik Dan, 20/1

4. Catching Freedom, 8/1

5. Catalytic, 30/1

6. Just Steel, 20/1

7. Honor Marie, 20/1

8. Just a Touch, 10/1

9. Encino, 20/1

10. TO Password, 30/1

11. Forever Young, 10/1

12. Track Phantom, 20/1

13. West Saratoga, 50/1

14. Endlessly, 30/1

15. Domestic Product, 30/1

16. Grand Mo the First, 50/1

17. Fierceness, 5/2*

18. Stronghold, 20/1

19. Resilience, 20/1

20. Society Man, 50/1

AE 21, Epic Ride, 50/1

AE 22, Mugato, 50/1

* after 5/2, Fierceness, represents the morning-line favorite

The scratch deadline for Epic Ride and Mugato to draw into the field is Friday, May 3rd at 9:00am. If any of the 1-20 field scratches after that, 04.04.24 at 9:00:01am or later, they will not be entered. Epic Ride draws in on the first scratch, Mugato on the second. Mugato could draw in first but only if Epic Ride scratches before the deadline and another did as well.

The 150th Derby is scheduled for race 12 (of 14) at 6:57pm Saturday, May 4, 2024.

Churchill is taking these new safety measures. Got this from the Paulick newsletter. The last one blew me away.

• Horses participating in the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby must be on the grounds no later than 11 a.m. on Saturday, April 27, and must remain on the grounds until after the running of their race, pending an unforeseeable emergency.
• Horses participating in the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby will have 24-hour barn security as well as 24-hour video surveillance starting at 11 a.m. on Saturday, April 27, through post time for their respective races.
• Horses that have been beaten by 12 lengths or more in 5 consecutive starts will be ineligible to race until approved by the CDI Equine Medical Director to return.
• Horses shall be limited to 4 starts in a rolling 8-week period.
• All first-time starters 4-years-old and older or 3-year-olds and older with no race within 365 days are required to have an official veterinary exam. In addition, horses that have not raced within 150 days, but less than 365 days, may be required to have an evaluation by the CDI Equine Medical Director prior to entry.
• Waiver Claiming Rule allows a trainer to enter a horse in a claiming race but be ineligible to be claimed providing the horse has been laid off and has not started for a minimum of 120 days since its last race, and the horse is entered for a claiming price equal to or greater than the price at which it last started.
• HIWU will conduct out-of-competition blood and hair samples of horses competing in the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks as well as undercard races before entries are taken and will be sent to an HIWU certified laboratory for immediate testing. Other jurisdictions will also obtain out-of-competition samples on behalf of HISA/HIWU from horses that are not stabled in Kentucky.
• All veterinary treatment records must be submitted to HISA and are available to regulatory veterinarians for review.
• Veterinarians shall not have contact with an entered horse within 24 hours of post time unless approved by the regulatory veterinarian.
• No medications are permitted within 48 hours of the race. In the event of a medical emergency, the Stewards will authorize treatment and the horse will be scratched.
• Any owner or trainer previously stabled at a CDI track who sells or transports a horse for purposes of slaughter will have stalls permanently revoked at all CDI properties.
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Encino is scratched.  

And Epic Ride draws in.

Did not hear what the problem was with Encino. Too bad. Undefeated this year and ran a bullet on the 27th .

@vetdrm

 Doc, the DRF says it was a "soft tissue" strain in his right front leg.

Top two look tough and records are made to be broken. Looking at PP for the top 2 horses

17: 0 wins in 44 starts

2: Last win in 1978 (Affirmed)

Willing to let them beat me but not throwing them on top of any keys

Didn't see Encino scratched

Ugh!

Weather may factor into your handicapping style.

Here is a site that's pretty accurate/good:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/derby/42404/hourly-weather-forecast/2177887

Currently, it's set for hourly readings on Saturday, adjust as you need/want.

Great information, thanks for sharing.

One thing to remember to is be able to adjust your handicapping/selections incumbent on how the track is playing and, of course, the weather.

Just my opinion and I could be 100% on this according to some, but anyone trying to tell you 'today' who the winner will be is a very foolish person.  At this point, there are still so many factors that should be taken into account.  One can have an idea or two on who they might like/think will win (which is fine) but again, there's still so much time before race day that could change ones thought process.

For those who use bloodlines in their handicapping style, here is a list (by post position order) who should be given extra consideration (non weather, ie: sloppy, muddy, etc.,):

Dornoch, Sierra Leon, Catalytic, Just Steel, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Forever Young, Track Phantom, West Saratoga, Endlessly, Resilience, Society Man and Epic Ride.

Here is an alphabetical order list of horses from 'My Key Prep Races':

Catalytic, Domestic Product, Dornoch, Epic Ride, Fierceness, Grand Mo the First, Just a Touch, Just Steel, Mystik Dan, Resilience, Sierra Leon, Society Man and Stronghold.

My research had shown, at least to me, that horses who hit the board in them have done/faired better than those who haven't.

Here is a list of horses, in highest to lowest, order in the event the track is 'Wet' for Saturday's Derby:

462, Sierra Leone

441, Stronghold

424, Resilience

422, Track Phantom

404, Just a Touch

403, Grand Mo the First

402, Just Steep

395, T O Password

391, Fierceness

383, Epic Ride

379, Catching Freedom

379, West Saratoga

377, Forever Young

377, Domestic Product

376, Catalytic

350, Mystik Dan

337, Society Man

334, Endlessly

328, Dornoch

301, Honor Marie

Kentucky Derby Day

Lot of changes on the card.

Race 1

... Going to focus on the 2, 5 and 7 for the win and use as key in exotics and multiple races.

It's a long day of wagering, pace yourself and "better" (quality) races are later in the card.

With the 9 horse scratched, all horses will move inwards one spot in the starting gate, the 17 horse will depart from the 16 hole in the starting gate.. (So in theory the 17 horse is actually the 16 horse, it will just wear the #17 saddle cloth) ...  So the #17 post with no wins in 44 starts does not affect the 17 this time, he will leave the starting gate from post 16.

Race 2

... Have the 6, 8 and 11 on the back end of the Daily Double.

Race 3

This race focus is on the 1, 3 and 9.

Multiple races include the above and the 11.

Race 5

Focus attention on 4, 8, 10 and 12.

@TheBlackKnight

Thank you and you as well.

Race 6

Using 1, 4 and 5 as exotic keys, also on their nose (weighted dutch if needed to profit if standard odds won't pay $6.00+ if one of these three win).

Race 7

One of the wagers for this race is a trifecta box of 3, 5, 6, 11 and 12.

Each fifty cent box costs $30.00

There are other tickets in play as well.