2024 Kentucky Derby

With the Kentucky Derby less than a month away, I thought it might be a good idea to get things started as every Tom, Dick and Harry even if they don't bet/wager on horses will put a few dollars into the pools.

There are three one hundred point Kentucky Derby prep races Saturday. They are The Wood Memorial, 4:05pm ET, from Aqueduct, The Blue Grass Stakes, 5:52pm ET, from Keenland and The Santa Anita Derby, 7:30pm ET, from Santa Anita. The NEW point scale for these races is: 100 points go to the winner, 50 points to the runner up, 25 points for third, 15 points for fourth AND 10 points for fifth.

I have the last horse to make the field of twenty, with 30 points. Whoever finishes first or second will have enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. It's going to matter who finishes third, fourth and fifth for seven horses to see if they'll be in the field with only one additional Kentucky Derby prep race, The Lexington Stakes (20 points for the winner, 10 points for the runner up, 6 points for third, 4 points for fourth and 2 points for fifth) is scheduled to be run April 13, 2024 (the following Saturday).

Here are the horses that I have who probably need more points to make the first Saturday in May (Kentucky Derby Day). From the Wood Memorial, I have El Grande O and Uncle Heavy. From the Blue Grass Stakes, I have Seize the Grey, Just a Touch and Encino. From the Santa Anita Derby, I have Stronghold, and Mc Vay. Those seven if they finish fourth or better most likely will qualify for the Kentucky Derby depending upon the Lexington's results.

The three 100 point races Saturday have others with enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby without concern of where they finish in the race.

In case you were wondering, didn't know or forgot any horse trained by Bob Baffert (trainer of record) would not receive any points. So for another year, the Sport of Kings
will go without it's most recognized trainer, who leads all trainers in number of KY Derby wins, again.

Comments, betting systems, etc are all welcome.  

Only the Lexington Stakes remaining for the Kentucky Derby. The winner will receive 20 points, the runner up 10 points, the show finisher 6 points, the fourth place runner gets 4 points while the fifth place finisher grabs 2 points. I do not know the official field for that race at this time.

Here are the horses who have and could qualify for the Run for the Roses:
155 points, Sierra Leon
136 points, Fierceness
125 points, Catching Freedom
125 points, Stronghold
100 points, Endlessly
100 points, Forever Young
75 points, Dornoch
75 points, Just a Touch
70 points, Track Phantom
67 points, West Saratoga
65 points, Honor Marie
65 points, Just Steel
60 points, Domestic Product
50 points, Deterministic
50 points, Catalytic
46 points, Mystik Dan
45 points, No More Time
45 points, Grand Mo the First
40 points, TO Password
37 points, Common Defense
----------------------------------------------------
30 points, El Grande O
30 points, Hades
30 points, Ram Set
30 points, Uncle Heavy
25 points, Seize the Grey
25 points, Pandagate
25 points, Tuscan Gold
25 points, Le Dom Brea
20 points, Encino
19 points, Locked
19 points, Mc Vay
19 points, Liberal Arts

Notes
Horses above the line, between 37 and 30 points, are the top 20 (known), those below are on the outside looking in.

Timberlake has 76 points but is skipping the KY Derby.

Any horses trained by Bob Baffert are not allowed to earn points as he is suspended by/from Churchill Downs.

Here is my updated points list:

Here are the horses who have and could qualify for the Run for the Roses:
155 points, Sierra Leon
136 points, Fierceness
125 points, Catching Freedom
125 points, Stronghold
100 points, Endlessly
100 points, Forever Young
75 points, Dornoch
75 points, Just a Touch
70 points, Track Phantom
67 points, West Saratoga
65 points, Honor Marie
65 points, Just Steel
60 points, Domestic Product
50 points, Deterministic
50 points, Catalytic
46 points, Mystik Dan
45 points, No More Time
45 points, Grand Mo the First
40 points, TO Password
37 points, Common Defense
-----------------------------------------------
30 points, El Grande O
30 points, Hades
30 points, Ram Set
30 points, Uncle Heavy
25 points, Seize the Grey
25 points, Pandagate
25 points, Tuscan Gold
25 points, Le Dom Brea
20 points, Encino
19 points, Mc Vay
19 points, Liberal Arts

Lexington Stakes Kentucky Derby Hopefuls

PP 5, Hades 7:2

PP 8, Encino, 5:1

PP 9, Liberal Arts, 4:1

The winner will receive 20 points towards the KY Derby.  If any of those three win, unless I missed something (which could happen), they make the field.  If Hades places, then with 40 points, he makes the field.  If he finishes between third and fifth he'd be on the Also Eligible list (waiting for those above him to draw into the race).   Encino and Liberal Arts, if they don't win, would go to the AE list - provided they placed (finished second).  A third to fifth place for either of them keeps them out of the Run For The Roses.

Here is an interesting tidbit about the Kentucky Derby:

Between 2013 and 2023, only two KY Points leaders won the Derby (2013: Orb and 2014: California Chrome).  How does this now make you feel about Sierra Leon, who by all rights should be the morning line favorite?

Here's another bit of information most don't realize about the Kentucky Derby:

Since 2013, when the 100 point races began, seven went on to win the Derby, BUT, four of the last five winners did not win a 100 point prep race.

Provides pro's and con's as to why to take or pass on a/any horse for the win.

How about this nugget:

Last year, 2023, the combination of trainer Gustavo Delgado and jockey Javier Castellino won the Kentucky Derby.  My research, going back to 1976, does not have/show any trainer and jockey winning consecutive back-to-back Kentucky Derby races.  Think about that, 47 times in a row and not once (or more) gone back-to-back.

Did you know:

The last time a trainer won the Kentucky Derby in back-to-back years was Bob Baffert (1997 with Silver Charm and 1998 with Real Quiet).  Prior to that D Wayne Lukas accomplished the feat in 1995 with Thunder Fully and 1996 with Grindstone.  Other than those two, from 1976 forward, no other trainer has done it.  That doesn't fair/set well for last year's winning trainer.

More later, time to get headed to the barn, check on the horses, catch up with the trainer and see how things are progressing.

With all the Kentucky Derby point prep races completed, here is the field as I know it, along with some additional information:

155 points, Sierra Leon
... Trainer: Chad Brown
... Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

136 points, Fierceness
... Trainer: Todd Pletcher
... Jockey: John Velazquez

125 points, Catching Freedom
... Trainer: Brad Cox
... Jockey: Flavien Prat

125 points, Stronghold
... Trainer: Philip D'Amato
... Jockey: Antonio Fresu

110 points, Resilience
... Trainer: William Mott
... Jockey: John Velazquez

100 points, Forever Young (JPN)
... Trainer: Yahagi Yoshito
... Jockey: Sakai Ryusel

100 points, Endlessly
... Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy
... Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

75 points, Dornoch
... Trainer: Danny Gargan
... Jockey: Luis Saez

75 points, Just a Touch
... Trainer: Brad Cox
... Jockey: Florent Geroux

70 points, Track Phantom
... Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
... Jockey: Joel Rosario

67 points, West Saratoga
... Trainer: Larry W. Demeritte
... Jockey: Jesus Castellino

65 points, Just Steel
... Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
... Jockey: Keith Asmussen

65 points, Honor Marie
... Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
... Jockey: Ben Curtis

60 points, Domestic Product
... Trainer: Chad Brown
... Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

50 points, Catalytic
... Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
... Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux

50 points, Deterministic
... Trainer: Christophe Cleme
... Jockey: Joel Rosario

50 points, Society Man
... Trainer: Danny Gargan
... Jockey: Luis R. Rivera, Jr

46 points, Mystik Dan
... Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
... Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

40 points, Encino
... Trainer: Brad Cox
... Jockey: Florent Geroux

40 points, TO Password
... Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
... Jockey: Katsuma Sameshima

=============================

40 points, Grand Mo the First
... Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
... Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo

37 points, Common Defense
... Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
... Jockey: Brain Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

35 points, Epic Ride
... Trainer: John Ennis
... Jockey: Adam Beschizza

30 points, Hades
... Trainer: Joseph F. Orseno
... Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz

30 points, Uncle Heavy
... Trainer: Robert E. Reid, Jr
... Jockey: Mychel J. Sanchez

30 points, El Grande O
... Trainer: Linda Rice
... Jockey: Dylan Davis

Above the line are the top twenty that I know of, hopefully I didn't omit anyone.  Below the line would be those on the AE list.

By the end of this week, we should know whether a lawsuit filed by owner Amr Zedan will be successful in allowing Muth, trained by Bob Baffert, to run in this year's Kentucky Derby. He has the necessary points.

Last time out on March 30th, he won the Arkansas Derby @ Oaklawn. 

I can not see how it would be fair to all the other connections, who followed/played by the rules, to allow Baffert's horses enter this year's Kentucky Derby.  The owner knew BB was banned/suspended from Churchill Downs but did not switch trainers back when the information was made available.

DRF has an informative article on their website.  Based upon the facts listed in the article, it looks like the owner(s) realize they made a poor decision.  Then again, could another trainer gotten the horse in question to perform as well in the OP Derby?  By Wednesday evening, a decision should be made.  Hopefully they do the right thing.

I have not paid much attention… again this year… but I did see Sierra Leon ..?   Run his last race…. And it was a perfect way to run derby in my opinion….  I will be keying him in most my plays.    

Muth is a "no go" in the Derby.

@Midnight1

Yeah, they sure tried hard enough even going to another level to try and get him in.Wish he would’ve made it only because he would’ve brought the odds down somewhat with the other legit contenders. I hope Encino makes it in.

@vetdrm

 Baffert has Muth headed to the Preakness.

I think Baffert may win either the Preakness or the Belmont (it'at Saratoga this year because of construction @ Big Sandy) & thumb his nose @ Churchill.

Saratoga will be open June 6th to the 9th. Should be a hell of weekend!

Take a look at post #4, it has information you might find helpful/useful about him.  

I'm glad that part of the discussion/issue has been resolved.

Muth having the extra time off would benefit him for the Preakness (fresh shooter angle) but it's no guarantee he'd win it or the Belmont.  The fear I have for whomever wins the Kentucky Derby and, for the sake of discussion, the Preakness, let's say that horse wins the Belmont.  How will history and people react/treat the horse and connections since it wasn't the "normal acceptable" race (distance and track).  A three day meet, gotta love it ... beats Tampa Bay Downs two day summer event.

April 22, 2024

With all the Kentucky Derby point prep races completed, here is the field as I know it, along with some additional information:

155 points, Sierra Leon
... Trainer: Chad Brown
... Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

136 points, Fierceness
... Trainer: Todd Pletcher
... Jockey: John Velazquez

125 points, Catching Freedom
... Trainer: Brad Cox
... Jockey: Flavien Prat

125 points, Stronghold
... Trainer: Philip D'Amato
... Jockey: Antonio Fresu

110 points, Resilience
... Trainer: William Mott
... Jockey: John Velazquez

100 points, Forever Young (JPN)
... Trainer: Yahagi Yoshito
... Jockey: Sakai Ryusel

100 points, Endlessly
... Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy
... Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

75 points, Dornoch
... Trainer: Danny Gargan
... Jockey: Luis Saez

75 points, Just a Touch
... Trainer: Brad Cox
... Jockey: Florent Geroux

70 points, Track Phantom
... Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
... Jockey: Joel Rosario

67 points, West Saratoga
... Trainer: Larry W. Demeritte
... Jockey: Jesus Castellino

65 points, Just Steel
... Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
... Jockey: Keith Asmussen

65 points, Honor Marie
... Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
... Jockey: Ben Curtis

60 points, Domestic Product
... Trainer: Chad Brown
... Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

50 points, Catalytic
... Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
... Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux

50 points, Society Man
... Trainer: Danny Gargan
... Jockey: Luis R. Rivera, Jr

46 points, Mystik Dan
... Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
... Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

40 points, Encino
... Trainer: Brad Cox
... Jockey: Florent Geroux

40 points, TO Password
... Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
... Jockey: Katsuma Sameshim

40 points, Grand Mo the First
... Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
... Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo

==============================

37 points, Common Defense
... Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
... Jockey: Brain Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

35 points, Epic Ride
... Trainer: John Ennis
... Jockey: Adam Beschizza

30 points, Hades
... Trainer: Joseph F. Orseno
... Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz

30 points, Uncle Heavy
... Trainer: Robert E. Reid, Jr
... Jockey: Mychel J. Sanchez

30 points, El Grande O
... Trainer: Linda Rice
... Jockey: Dylan Davis

There is some debate over if TO Password (JPN) is in or out. Respected sources are on both sides of this.

Above the line are the top twenty that I know of, hopefully I didn't omit anyone. Below the line would be those on the AE list.

To me, it clearly look like Encino has enough points to be in the race and if he doesn't get ill or injured would give Brad Cox three in the race (as of today/right now).  

Here's something I've found helpful/useful when trying to identify the winner.  Give extra credence to those who hit the board in My Key Prep races.  My Key Prep races are defined as those Kentucky Derby Point Prep races that have produced multiple Kentucky Derby winners.  For example, the Florida Derby has provided 7 of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners - it's just one additional piece of information that I find useful when building my tickets.

Keep adding your comments/ideas/thoughts/questions, I read them all, and while I'm no "expert" despite my young age I have a decent/good amount of knowledge about this sport but there are certain things I don't know or haven't/can't do.  For example, while I can shoe a horse and understand how to make quality shoes, I've yet to make a full set, let alone a pair or one, that I'd be comfortable putting on any racehorse - "pleasure horse", not an issue but I know I still need to put in more time to become successful at that task.

Time for a light breakfast and off to the barn.

10-4 on post #4….   As I have said… I have not watched much… just saw him run once… and his style is perfect in my opinion…. But mile and quarter is a beast… maybe play him 2-3 and 4 then.    Been trying to hit derby super for years… I put about 3-500$ into it one way or another…. Never hit it… been very close… but never hit.    It gets drastically expensive once you make the wager as I try to put an ‘all’ in somewhere…. As I am hoping for that 45-1 in somewhere.   

Leparoux got bumped off Catalytic for Jose Ortiz by Saffie Joseph.

April 24, 2024

With all the Kentucky Derby point prep races completed, here is the field as I know it, along with some additional information:

155 points, Sierra Leon
... Trainer: Chad Brown, 7-0-1-1
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 2018 with Good Magic
... Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione, 6-0-0-0,
..... Best Finish: 7th in 2019 on War of Will

136 points, Fierceness
... Trainer: Todd Pletcher, 64-2-2-4
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2017 with Always Dreaming
... Jockey: John Velazquez, 25-3-2-0
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2020 on Authentic

125 points, Catching Freedom
... Trainer: Brad Cox, 9-1-0-2
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2021 with Mandaloun
... Jockey: Flavien Prat, 6-1-1-3
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2019 on Chester House via DQ

125 points, Stronghold
... Trainer: Philip D'Amato, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Antonio Fresu, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A

110 points, Resilience
... Trainer: William Mott, 12-1-0-1
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2019 with Chester House via DQ
... Jockey: John Velazquez, 25-3-2
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2020 on Authentic

100 points, Forever Young (JPN)
... Trainer: Yahagi Yoshito, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Sakai Ryusel, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A

100 points, Endlessly
... Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Umberto Rispoli, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 14th in 2021 on Brooklyn Strong

75 points, Dornoch
... Trainer: Danny Gargan, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 14th in 2019 with Tax (Gelding)
... Jockey: Luis Saez, 10-0-0-1
..... Best Finish: 3rd in 2021 on Essential Quality

75 points, Just a Touch
... Trainer: Brad Cox, 9-1-0-2
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2021 with Mandaloun
... Jockey: Florent Geroux, 7-1-0-1
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2021 on Mandaloun

70 points, Track Phantom
... Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen, 25-0-3-2
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 2022 with Epicenter
... Jockey: Joel Rosario, 12-1-1-0
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2013 on Orb

67 points, West Saratoga
... Trainer: Larry W. Demeritte, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Javier Castellino, 16-1-0-1
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2023 on Mage

65 points, Just Steel
... Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas, 49-4-1-5
..... Best Finish: 1st in 1999 with Charismatic
... Jockey: Keith Asmussen, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A

65 points, Honor Marie
... Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Ben Curtis, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
60 points, Domestic Product
... Trainer: Chad Brown, 7-0-1-1
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 2018 with Good Magic
... Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione, 6-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 7th in 2019 on War of Will

50 points, Catalytic
... Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., 2-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 8th in 2020 with NY Traffic
... Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux replaced by Jose Ortiz, 8-0-0-1
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 2018 on Good Magic

50 points, Society Man
... Trainer: Danny Gargan, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 14th in 2019 with Tax (G)
... Jockey: Luis R. Rivera, Jr replaced by Frankie Dettori, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 6th in 2000 on China Visit

46 points, Mystik Dan
... Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek, 9-0-1-0
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 1995 with Tejano Run
... Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr., 4-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 8th in 2017 on McCraken

40 points, Encino
... Trainer: Brad Cox, 9-1-0-2
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2021 with Mandaloun
... Jockey: Florent Geroux, 7-1-0-1
..... Best Finish: 1st in 2021 on Mandaloun

40 points, TO Password
... Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Katsuma Sameshim, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A

40 points, Grand Mo the First
... Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr., First JY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 18th in 2016 on Majesto

==============================

37 points, Common Defense
... Trainer: Kenneth McPeek, 9-0-1-0
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 1995 with Tejano Run
... Jockey: Brain Joseph Hernandez, Jr., 4-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 8th in 2017 on McCraken

35 points, Epic Ride
... Trainer: John Ennis, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Adam Beschizza, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 7th in 2020 on Enforceable

30 points Hades

. Trainer: Joseph F. Orseno, 1-0-0-0
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 2001 with Thunder Blitz
... Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz, 8-0-1-1
..... Best Finish: 2nd in 2018 on Good Magic

30 points, Uncle Heavy
... Trainer: Robert E. Reid, Jr., First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Mychel J. Sanchez, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A

30 points, El Grande O
... Trainer: Linda Rice, Forst KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A
... Jockey: Dylan Davis, First KY Derby
..... Best Finish: N/A

There is some debate over if TO Password (JPN) is in or out. Respected sources are on both sides of this.

Above the line are the top twenty that I know of, hopefully I didn't omit anyone. Below the line would be those on the AE list.