The end of online gambling is near

Despite the takeout you can still find value if you know what your are doing.  And I'm not insinuating that I'm one of the ones that knows what he's doing.     

 At the big tracks on the weekends for the better races,  the pools are pretty big so a decent size wager isn't going to kill the odds that much.   I'm talking about Churchill, Belmont, Santa Anita, Del Mar,  etc   that type of track.    Those are the races that are least likely to be fixed also.

It's a tough game to beat though not doubt about that.    If you're an action freak and you gotta bet every race every day at 5 or 6 tracks then you're going to get killed.     

My book overseas, the Greek said the worst that can happen is they can't operate on line but their money is good because it's not tied to US Banks in any way,shape or form. They can return all accounts one way or another if need be.

Thoughts?

Yeah right.

Let me give you another "worst that can happen".

The Jamaican govt cooperates with the US Govt and allows a raid and confiscation of all Greek bank accts. 

Hows that?  Is that worse than they told you?

Please.....

 

Im not saying that IS going to happen, but I am saying that to think that what they told you is the worst case scenario is fairy tale land.

Im NOT commenting on the likelihood, but anyone who says it is not possible - well - you havent had your eyes open for the last several years.

The asset freeze of the poker companies reportedly involved bank accounts in 14 countries.

 

Will this money be confiscated for good? Who knows? Saying it can't happen... is a lie...

https://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/156655-rep-barney-frank-blasts-obama-admin-for-online-poker-crackdown

Vanzak-what would you do? Take withdrawals frequently from your sports book, keep a low balance?

Anyone need a friend in Vegas?

 

Totally agree. Excellent points throughout.

As others have stated. Time to consider Canada, and preferably warmer climates to live that actually are free countries that allow you to actually have the freedom to do what you want to do with your own money. The USA is no longer that place, and it certainly isn't a free country any more. Living here becomes more and more disturbing every day with less and less freedom all of the time.

Republicans have fucked this country up, and or steady trying to stop democrats from cleaning up their shit...fuck the republicans party and fuck Obama to because he is just a puppet.

 

my favorite comment about that piece------   

" Franks using the phrase "inside straight" made me cringe…"

God help me,  I still snicker at some Bevis and Butthead humor, sad I know,

Heres the thing - and I guess I should articluate it maybe a little bit better:

There will always be places to bet if you want to bet.

But, if you are like me - you make money by having the following conditions - and these are required:

1. Free market with competitve available lines amongs dozens of options of SB's.
2. Free movement of funds between books and home banks
3. Risk of forfeiture of money low due to books going under or confiscation.

You cannot accomplish those three things as an American bettor (unless you set up an offshore presence). In fact, you cant accomplish ANY ONE of those. Up until 2006 we had ALL of those.

So this post is not telling anyone that there wont be a sportsbook somewhere that is always willing to take a deposit and allow you to bet, or find a track to bet at, or a local. This post is saying that if you relied on the 3 things listed above in your method - you are screwed.

If you choose to keep money at Greek or BM, or any other SB that accepts Americans, you are PAYING A FEE FOR RISK. Risk is higher than ever, and if you are willing to accept that risk, there is a cost to it. Im not telling you not to do it (as I have been asked several times in this thread "should I take my money out") - I am simply telling you that you have to evaluate your risk tolerance - because pretending that there is no risk is silly.

You cant compete across sportsbooks for lines, you cant assure getting the lowest line available because you only have a couple of options, you cant move money freely and there is a cost and a risk cost to doing so that has never been higher - throw those things together and you have a recipe for non-profitabliity. I cant see how you can beat that longterm.

Can you go set yourself up in a foreign country with banking, address, and have sportsbooks like Pinnacle, Betfair, Matchbook etc and insulate yoursel? Yes. Does the average person want or have the means to do that? No.

From my point of view (opinion) - I dont know how anyone can make money doing this betting in to -110 lines, with very little competitiion for diversity of spreads, no exchange marketplace, no way to move money freely, and added risk cost. It seems impossible to me. The threshold is just way too high, out of the range of mortal handicappers to win longterm.

So make your own decisions. Keep your eyes and ears open. I wouldnt be surprised if these SB's were shut down tomorrow, and I wouldnt be surprised if they were open in 10 years. The US govt might not be too interested in them because sportsbetting is not going to be legalized anytime soon - and this was just a Hiroshima move to clear the way for the rebuilding contract to be issued to the corporate casinos - who now have a clean slate. But none of this matters to the guy who is trying to be profitable, and finds that the landscape is like trying to play ice hockey on a frozen waterfall.

I dont know much about the inner workings of SB's. I do know that they are not run by rocket scientists and beacons of legitimate business. I also know that poker sites and SB's share processors, and processor techniques.

I think the biggest protection SB's have is that the DOJ might deem them just too small to even matter right now, and that they dont fit the profile of what their objective is - which I feel is to clear the way for corporate legalization.

But dont you think the DOJ has experimented with sending the same WU's you do? Dont you think they know that Michael Jackson Gonzalez is not a real person living in the Philippines and that the SB's have set up a network of WU processors who give out dummy names? Dont you think they could and would squash this if they wanted to and felt the time was right?

Once again, you the sender are in no danger - but the risk here is simply knowing that there are lots of Jamie Moyer fastballs sitting belt high waiting for the DOJ to hit out of the park when they want to. This is my opinion, I have nothing concrete to back this up other than my own observations - but I think you have to be in serious denial to assume that if the DOJ wanted to that they couldnt unravel this ball of yarn anytime they wanted to.

I haven't posted in Covers in a while because I decided to give up sports betting and focus on playing poker.  I haven't had a chance to read the whole thread so some of my points may have already been mentioned.

The DOJ shutting down the big three poker sites is more about money than anything else.  At some point in the near future online Poker in the US will be legalized and regulated by the government.  The events of Friday April 15 just clears the American poker market for the Vegas casinos who will soon launch their own online poker rooms that will be licensed and taxed by the government.  The American government will try to squeeze out what they can from the Big 3 in this lawsuit and will then banish them from the American market.

Will the DOJ look to take down the Sportsbooks next?  Maybe, but I don't think so.  The online poker market is way bigger than the sports betting market.  If you don't believe me go to pokerscout and look at how many people played on the big sites before Black Friday, and how many people worldwide are playing even after what happened.  I could be wrong but I don't think there's enough money in it for the government to try to take down these sports sites.  The DOJ did not even go after some of the smaller poker sites (like Merge, Bodog, etc.), because they just aren't worth their time.

While online poker will one day be legal again in the US, the same cannot be said of online sports betting.  It is generally accepted that poker is a game of skill while sports betting is not.  I'm sure many on the forum would disagree with that but that is the view of most people and that will not change. 

Some of the sports betting sites may stop accepting US customers for fear that they will end up being prosecuted  but I think the underground online sports betting market will continue to exist and not change too much.

Party at the DOJ

 

These exact thoughts have been rattling around my head since Matchbook walked away in February

Thanks for all the input fellas-excellent stuff-I'm a college educated  self-employed businessmen but I don't drink, smoke, play golf or other crap-just like out thinking the public and playing against the grain like in th stock market.

I guess I could live without betting on line and there are still bookies out here in Cali but I got caught in a sting 20 years ago for that and those memories are hard.

I assume my $ could dry up anytime and I don't like limited options but I believe Sports Betting is small on line and these overseas books don't use US Banks so how can they be taxed and how much money can the gov't gain here?

I will take it carefully and withdrawal as needed-it's not my kids college fund....I do believe Wynn and others are ready to roll in,,,

 

I have another thought.....  And this just came to me.

I do think that there will be "services" opening up now to make it easy for poker players to become virtual citizens of their choice of locales.  This would easily lend itself to sports bettors too, but since we are much smaller - I think this event will lead to the formation of such services in which a sports gambler could piggyback.

Something like:

For XXX per month, get a foreign physical address, a foreign bank acct, and a VPN in that locale.......

Wait and see.  I thought of this while reading at 2+2, and the number of poker refugees looking for a home is astounding.

Doyle's room is still operating and advertising to pick up PS and FT's players.  I wonder what the difference is?  Maybe to small, but to still be advertising seems to be asking for problems.  Maybe Doyle made a big donation to Obama's 2012 campaign??  Anyway, I would be scared to deposit.  Any thoughts?

Doyle's room is tiny, no one plays there.  The DOJ is only going after the giants for now.

Vanzack,

Thank you for this thread and having an intelligent dialogue about an important issue to people on this site

I wonder why you have so many "haters" on this site... but when you consider that some people get mad when ever a logical/intelligent exchange of ideas occurs, you probably piss them off alot...

BetUS - square central for US players - says goodbye to US players.

Just the beginning boys.

Keep your eyes and ears open.

are we talking about  nfl  nba baseball  getting  shut down to.

are we talking about  nfl  nba baseball  getting  shut down to.