Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:
I was wondering when you'd get to this. Maybe it's time to dust off that long thread you wrote.
This guy doesn't have the tools to be able to do this for a living. One book and a chunk of money. I doubt he has any more than a cursory knowledge of statistics (I'm not talking rebounds per game), buying and selling, etc., etc.
Trust me, I am a recreational player with a pretty good knowledge in some areas such as statistics, probability, etc.
Everyone I've actually believed who does this for a living has unbelievable drive, dedication, and patience in addition to knowing all sorts of ways to make money.
I know that's not even close to me...it's not even close to him, either.
Im getting old and closed minded... But I really have a hard time believing that anyone in the USA can really make a living sports betting.
Before everyone jumps on me for that statement - read on. This is from my perspective - how I think this can be done - and based on who I know and what I have seen - I have yet to see otherwise. So while I don't think I am always right, someone needs to prove me wrong on this.
1. The online book industry for the US is toast. Done and dusted for anyone looking to be profitable. Sure - you can have an account and get a bet placed - rec gamblers will always have a place to do this. That's not what I am talking about. I am talking about people who need a book(s) for the sole purpose of being profitable. Read on.....
2. Risk. Once you figure in the cost of risk in to your model, it kills your profit. Lets be honest here - margins in sports betting are small. You need to repeat small margin wagers over and over in order to be profitable. Your margins get killed when you figure in the risk of a book going under - which could happen to any US facing book at any time - there is not a single US facing book that is immune to this.
3. Cost. The cost of moving money kills your profit margins. Self explanatory - but the costs of moving money from book to book and back and forth is exorbitant.
4. Number of options in books is minimal. Books no longer really need to compete for your business. If you are American, you have a handful of choices. Therefore - your line options and price options go from being widespread 10 years ago to very narrow now. This is another ingredient for profitability that used to be there that is gone now.
5. So why not bet in Vegas? Sure. 10% vig, and logistics issues with getting best lines. I don't buy it. You have to have a crystal ball to do this.
6. Anyone who bets sports for a living needs a math model. Period. I have yet to be proven wrong on this one either. You either must develop or buy an advanced stats model that does predictive results or predictive line estimation.
These are just off the top of my head....
So overall - anyone who thinks they are going to do this and "make a living" these days cannot be US based. You have to have an overseas presence. If you tell me you can do this - I would ask that you check back in in a year or two. Your costs and risks just make profitability almost a long term pipe dream.
Trust me - I wish it was different.
And then someone who thinks they can beat all of these barriers - all of this risk - all of these costs - and do it by "crystal ball gut feel handicapping" just gets a smirk and headshake from me. Its not one single thing the guy says in his rambling post above - it is simply that he doesn't say a single thing that leads me to believe he has a single ingredient to be able to do this.
I used to think I wanted to open a restaurant. How hard could it be? I even thought I had a unique idea, and a great chef. Experts in the industry told me that I was better off burning my money than opening it - but I got 2 friends - we chipped in about 200k each - and did it. End result? Money burned. And now I understand. I get why I was so ill-equipped to even be a quiet bystander in that industry. And that is what I am saying here - everyone thinks that they can be a "pro" restauranteur because they like food and have eaten 3 meals a day their whole life. But 75% of them fail, and only about 2% of them are ever really profitable. Probably the same statistics for gamblers.

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