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Facebook IPO End of Day Value Estimates...Post Your Guess Here

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Posts: 67

LHSsoccer13

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 411

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:20 PM ET #26

If it were not for the underwriters buying a ton of shares this stock would have ended up well below the IPO price of $38.

This stock fell to unchanged at $38 and they then had to support it. $100 in one week time? Please this isn't the 90's.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58428

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:24 PM ET #27

Yep the underwriters were supporting 38 strongly.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58428

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:34 PM ET #28

Looks like you have a shot at hitting that wager, I hope it stays over 40 for you!

KQC

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 3852

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:37 PM ET #29

too many shares out there

LHSsoccer13

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 411

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:43 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by KQC:

too many shares out there

And I believe that they are going to be flooding the market with more in the months to come. If I heard it right.

ogmike

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2002

Posts: 2947

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:51 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by LHSsoccer13:

And I believe that they are going to be flooding the market with more in the months to come. If I heard it right.

Will they still do this if there's not enough demand for it.

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:56 PM ET #32

Underwriters can support all they wish in the short term... but this stock will be trading down significantly within a couple weeks IMO

What do I know? Not much, just my gut feeling. Most hyped IPO in over a decade.

dopalicous

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 3468

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 1:41 PM ET #33

Looks like this stock has been priced perfectly to me.

EPS is way off most internet big boys like GOOG, APPLE, etc

but at 42ish it seems like the floor is set around the mid 30's and alot of people/buyers for stock are in the buy and hold with this stock.

Personally i buy advertising from FB and i am interested in how change the way ad copy approvals get placed on there platform, IE money, revenues generated which FB needs badly.

Huge user base of over 900 million users but doesn't monetize its users like apple or google, or amazon.

Either way its a day that billions of dollars where basically cashed out by the early FB investors who where the real winners, Dont forget FB has been bought and sold 2x in the private market already.

Today a bunch of NERDS got paid. also, Interesting food for thought......you think FB is going to be able to still get top level silicon valley engineering talent in the valley after IPO....it was a nice tool to lure talent in Silicon valley for a decade from google any hot shot programmer coming up got pilfered by FB to work for them.

bigbill365

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 1867

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 4:02 PM ET #34

wow wat a flop its looking like it will close below the opening price hahahaha

bigvern1013

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 3051

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 4:15 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Looks like you have a shot at hitting that wager, I hope it stays over 40 for you!

The good wishes were much appreciated WallStreet....Man, this bet was in the green most of the day, but took a dive in the last hour of trading..... those underwriters protected the 38 with conviction.

I would have to think that the number of automated sell orders sitting at 37.99 was huge! All of the delays and order routing problems were also very fishy on the open....looked to me like everyone was looking to sell aggressively early, and every stock that was associated with FB took a bloodbath.

All in all 0-2 on the day...Zuckerberg wore his hoodie to the open, probably should have gone with the suit and at least tested the 50$ level with the IPO.

Well, a loser is a loser is a loser........back to the grind. to all.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.

bigvern1013

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 3051

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 4:33 PM ET #36

* "Loser" meaning my wagers of course, not Zuckerberg...

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.

bigbill365

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 1867

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 4:39 PM ET #37

that face book stock is for dummys i dont even really grasp how facebook makes money besides those shitty little ads on the side

Slobbasaurus

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 7150

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 4:43 PM ET #38

When the hype is over, I think people will realize that this stock isn't worth it.

Sorry about the losses Bigvern, better luck next time.

UberDog

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 1597

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 6:54 PM ET #39

I have doubts that Facebook can be monetized without killing the essential stuff that made it great. The suits that are trying to make money on this don't understand the technology, the vibe or guys like Zuckerberg--who, despite all his smarts and shrewdness, is probably ill-equipped to run a company with this market cap.

joewashington

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 2780

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 7:26 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by pulledclear:

The next ENRON more like AOL. Get in and out QUICK!!!

You are absolutely right.......when Enron was high flying all we heard from the analysts was that they didn't understand their model and strategy to grow revenues......not saying Zuck is cooking the books.....but he is under big pressure now to perform......this will be interesting to watch........I've been saying it's just another fad for years now........would not touch it....

joewashington

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 2780

Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 7:32 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

I think there will be plenty of retail dopes that get sucked in.

Even with the bloated offering (upped size and price) it should still pop.

I would suggest over 60 on the open, maybe 70?

I would expect a close over 50 if the market does not implode in general.

If it closes in the 40s I would be massively shocked.

it was a shocking experience....

wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6768

Posted: May. 19, 2012 - 2:03 AM ET #42

The ill-informed sheep wanted in on the stock early, and I think it is going to be a disasterous investment down the road once this initial excitement wears off.

SportsFan9698

Banned

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 5575

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 9:51 AM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

Underwriters can support all they wish in the short term... but this stock will be trading down significantly within a couple weeks IMO

What do I know? Not much, just my gut feeling. Most hyped IPO in over a decade.

A couple weeks... hell that only took a couple days. This dog is headed for 20's very soon. Huge failure of an IPO

wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6768

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 12:55 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

A couple weeks... hell that only took a couple days. This dog is headed for 20's very soon. Huge failure of an IPO

The people that initially pounded the stock are the same useless people who go on that site everyday and tell us where they and their kids are eating.

bigbill365

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 1867

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 1:22 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

The people that initially pounded the stock are the same useless people who go on that site everyday and tell us where they and their kids are eating.

haha im sick of that site and im a young guy every telling there fucking life stories on there and marking were there at every step shit if bigbill did that there would be some people tryin to find my ass

I-Got-5-On-It

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 23321

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 2:29 PM ET #46

$4.20

Bet 5 Play Over Parlays and get rich

User432694

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 3677

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 7:22 PM ET #47

Post Deleted

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58428

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 7:26 PM ET #48

Something else to consider..

The pipeline of insiders to sell is HUGE..not everyone who wants to sell was able from inside the company, plus there are the institutional people who got suckered in that wont be holding onto a loss forever either..

User432694

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 3677

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 7:34 PM ET #49

Post Deleted

Blackchips

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 25

Posted: May. 21, 2012 - 7:42 PM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

If the stock continues to drop, it certainly is an investment to ponder.

If you are a long-term investor, potentially obtaining FB at $25-30 a share is an intriguing wager. Most people are priced out of purchasing multiple shares(100 or more) of other, more established, large cap tech companies such as Apple($560), Google($614) or LinkedIn($97). However, FB is reasonably priced for most folks at this initial stage.

The big question is userbase monetization, especially in the mobile market. FB will likely be able to monetize its userbase over the next few years, though at what rate remains unclear. To his credit, Zuckerberg has established a strong executive leadership with Sandberg(COO) and Cox(VP). These two are savvy and well thought out individuals who are prepared for the long haul.

FB is essentially in its infancy in terms of revenue. Its profit margins are in the high 40's, which is enviable. Though its growth is slowing(relatively to its past hyper-growth), its revenues and profits are all going to increase this year and likely the next. It has multiple potential avenues to explore to increase revenue, including, significantly, online gambling. It's a worldwide presence, so don't discount FB's potential in countries such as India and Brazil and, possibly, China in the future. I think many of us get sucked into a bubble of thinking FB is an American phenomenon. It's bigger than most of surmise. American skepticism rules the FB media here, but it is not quite so "hated" abroad.

If it drops into the 20's, it is something I would certainly consider as a long-term wager. The price would be more appropriate(and quite affordable) and the payoff possibly significant, over time, if you are willing to wait for returns.

whats so special about 100 shares? if i had 10 shares of apple today, i made 300. 100 shares of fb would require a $3 move to make that same 300. i don't see any difference. this is a common misnomer "oh geez i can't buy apple or google because its $600 a share!"

Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

If the stock continues to drop, it certainly is an investment to ponder.

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