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    All Forums | General Discussion

    Facebook IPO End of Day Value Estimates...Post Your Guess Here

    123 Next Last»
    bigvern1013
    pulledclear
    JimRockford
    bigbill365
    wallstreetcappers
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    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 10:24 PM ET #1

    So tommorrow is the big light show for the largest internet IPO ever and probably the most anticipated IPO in 10 years.

    The bidding starts at 38$ per share to the public....my guess is that it closes somewhere near 42.50$.

    The odds are +250 for 39.99 to 49.99 at bookmaker.

    In my opinion the days of the 300% one day gain for Internet companies died in Silicon valley back in the late 90's.   More skepticism concerning potential future values and overall pessimism on economic conditions as a whole keep this one in check.

    Value at close tommorrow: 42.50 per share   1unit @ +250

     

    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    So tommorrow is the big light show for the largest internet IPO ever and probably the most anticipated IPO in 10 years.

    The bidding starts at 38$ per share to the public....my guess is that it closes somewhere near 42.50$.

    The odds are +250 for 39.99 to 49.99 at bookmaker.

    In my opinion the days of the 300% one day gain for Internet companies died in Silicon valley back in the late 90's.   More skepticism concerning potential future values and overall pessimism on economic conditions as a whole keep this one in check.

    Value at close tommorrow: 42.50 per share   1unit @ +250

     

     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 10:28 PM ET #2

    Also going with Zuckerberg wearing the suit jacket far 1/2 unit at +280.  He is a global player worth 19 billion on paper now...time to show up for the share holders and ditch the hoodie.
    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    Also going with Zuckerberg wearing the suit jacket far 1/2 unit at +280.  He is a global player worth 19 billion on paper now...time to show up for the share holders and ditch the hoodie.
     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 10:31 PM ET #3

    *for
    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    *for
     
    pulledclear
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 10:40 PM ET #4

    The next ENRON more like AOL. Get in and out QUICK!!!
    Reply
    The next ENRON more like AOL. Get in and out QUICK!!!
     
    JimRockford
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 10:46 PM ET #5

    suckers game....
    Reply
    suckers game....
     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 10:58 PM ET #6

    I agree... the banks that take Facebook public and the insiders grabbed the value on this one...
    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    I agree... the banks that take Facebook public and the insiders grabbed the value on this one...
     
    bigbill365
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:13 PM ET #7

    hammer it and sell it off
    Reply
    hammer it and sell it off
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:21 PM ET #8

    No way 42

    IPO price is 38, that isnt what it opens at.

    IPO price is what people who had access to shares bought it at previous to it opening through a broker who has shares to offer.

    I expect the opening price to be much higher than 42, that would be considered a massive flop.
    Reply
    No way 42

    IPO price is 38, that isnt what it opens at.

    IPO price is what people who had access to shares bought it at previous to it opening through a broker who has shares to offer.

    I expect the opening price to be much higher than 42, that would be considered a massive flop.
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:24 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    No way 42

    IPO price is 38, that isnt what it opens at.

    IPO price is what people who had access to shares bought it at previous to it opening through a broker who has shares to offer.

    I expect the opening price to be much higher than 42, that would be considered a massive flop.

    He asked for closing price......

     

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    No way 42

    IPO price is 38, that isnt what it opens at.

    IPO price is what people who had access to shares bought it at previous to it opening through a broker who has shares to offer.

    I expect the opening price to be much higher than 42, that would be considered a massive flop.

    He asked for closing price......

     

     
    gfinger
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:28 PM ET #10

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.
    Reply
    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.
     
    ogmike
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:32 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.


    I hope so!  Got 300 shares today from Morgan Stanley.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.


    I hope so!  Got 300 shares today from Morgan Stanley.


     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:34 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    He asked for closing price......

     


    He made a wager with incorrect information, that was the reason for my comment..

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    He asked for closing price......

     


    He made a wager with incorrect information, that was the reason for my comment..

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:35 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.

    I dont think so. They sucked out lots of the pop by increasing the size and price.

    They took some of the sizzle out, if it goes to 100 within a week it is a tremendous short.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.

    I dont think so. They sucked out lots of the pop by increasing the size and price.

    They took some of the sizzle out, if it goes to 100 within a week it is a tremendous short.
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: May. 17, 2012 - 11:43 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:


    He made a wager with incorrect information, that was the reason for my comment..

    True, but you still didnt give a guesstimate

    +250 seems like a decent wager to me. Do you think this tops $50 by close tomorrow or $100 by next friday as gfinger thinks? Seems to me if it got to $100 a lot of people who bought in at $38 would be dumping them right back on the market.....

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:


    He made a wager with incorrect information, that was the reason for my comment..

    True, but you still didnt give a guesstimate

    +250 seems like a decent wager to me. Do you think this tops $50 by close tomorrow or $100 by next friday as gfinger thinks? Seems to me if it got to $100 a lot of people who bought in at $38 would be dumping them right back on the market.....

     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:14 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:


    He made a wager with incorrect information, that was the reason for my comment..

    So what exactly dictates where the price opens for bidding tommorrow?  If the IPO is valued at 38$ per share, what price are the brokers going to push when they start trading the shares live at around 11 Am eastern?

    I look for an opening bump then some sort of retracement, possibly a bump on the close, but a selloff on close is possible as well.

    Admittedly, my expertise lies in trading commodities, but I understand the ins and outs of the wager I made........38 is the magic number, I look for a highside 25% bump, getting us in under 49.99...... personally I think that in this economic environment a late day retracement is more probable thus the 42.50 close....."a bird in the hand" going into the weekend for the day traders.

    You have been around investing for awhile Wall Street, so care to venture a guess?? Maybe go to Bookmaker and look under the entertainment wagers and pick out the bets you like and share?

    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:


    He made a wager with incorrect information, that was the reason for my comment..

    So what exactly dictates where the price opens for bidding tommorrow?  If the IPO is valued at 38$ per share, what price are the brokers going to push when they start trading the shares live at around 11 Am eastern?

    I look for an opening bump then some sort of retracement, possibly a bump on the close, but a selloff on close is possible as well.

    Admittedly, my expertise lies in trading commodities, but I understand the ins and outs of the wager I made........38 is the magic number, I look for a highside 25% bump, getting us in under 49.99...... personally I think that in this economic environment a late day retracement is more probable thus the 42.50 close....."a bird in the hand" going into the weekend for the day traders.

    You have been around investing for awhile Wall Street, so care to venture a guess?? Maybe go to Bookmaker and look under the entertainment wagers and pick out the bets you like and share?

     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:17 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.

    Sounds good... I would love to be in that room tommorrow...so much wealth changing hands would be something to see and feel. You are lucky man....how about a live update tommorrow? 

    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:

    I work on the exchange and will be ringing the bell with Zuck in Menlo Park tomorrow. Price is $38, if you have an account over 100k and make over 36 trades at any brokerage firms you can get the IPO price. Either way, this things take off, not doubt about it. Over $100 a share in less than a week. Think the next GOOG. Buy it, don't hate it. GL.

    Sounds good... I would love to be in that room tommorrow...so much wealth changing hands would be something to see and feel. You are lucky man....how about a live update tommorrow? 

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:22 AM ET #17

    I think there will be plenty of retail dopes that get sucked in.

    Even with the bloated offering (upped size and price) it should still pop.

    I would suggest over 60 on the open, maybe 70?

    I would expect a close over 50 if the market does not implode in general.

    If it closes in the 40s I would be massively shocked.
    Reply
    I think there will be plenty of retail dopes that get sucked in.

    Even with the bloated offering (upped size and price) it should still pop.

    I would suggest over 60 on the open, maybe 70?

    I would expect a close over 50 if the market does not implode in general.

    If it closes in the 40s I would be massively shocked.
     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:28 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    I think there will be plenty of retail dopes that get sucked in.

    Even with the bloated offering (upped size and price) it should still pop.

    I would suggest over 60 on the open, maybe 70?

    I would expect a close over 50 if the market does not implode in general.

    If it closes in the 40s I would be massively shocked.

    Sounds good..... this thing just looks like a hustle to me...the old perception is reality line.

    Appreciate the input.

     

    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    I think there will be plenty of retail dopes that get sucked in.

    Even with the bloated offering (upped size and price) it should still pop.

    I would suggest over 60 on the open, maybe 70?

    I would expect a close over 50 if the market does not implode in general.

    If it closes in the 40s I would be massively shocked.

    Sounds good..... this thing just looks like a hustle to me...the old perception is reality line.

    Appreciate the input.

     

     
    misfits
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 9:29 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

    Also going with Zuckerberg wearing the suit jacket far 1/2 unit at +280.  He is a global player worth 19 billion on paper now...time to show up for the share holders and ditch the hoodie.
    try again. hoodie it is
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

    Also going with Zuckerberg wearing the suit jacket far 1/2 unit at +280.  He is a global player worth 19 billion on paper now...time to show up for the share holders and ditch the hoodie.
    try again. hoodie it is
     
    depeche2
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 9:53 AM ET #20

    $54.32
    Reply
    $54.32
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 11:27 AM ET #21

    So Barrons is thinking a 42 open?

    Reply
    So Barrons is thinking a 42 open?

     
    Madden
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    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 11:46 AM ET #22

    49.78$

    Zuckerberg can do whatever he wants. I hear people bashing him for not showing/wearing hoodies to meetings in NYC.

    Who the fuck cares? If I was him I'd be doing whatever I wanted also.

    Wow he might not make his company worth as much. It's pretty irrelevant to his life anyhow. He's already SET/ one of the richest people in the world.


    Reply
    49.78$

    Zuckerberg can do whatever he wants. I hear people bashing him for not showing/wearing hoodies to meetings in NYC.

    Who the fuck cares? If I was him I'd be doing whatever I wanted also.

    Wow he might not make his company worth as much. It's pretty irrelevant to his life anyhow. He's already SET/ one of the richest people in the world.


     
    HutchEmAll
    HutchEmAll
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    Posts: 38704
    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:10 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by Madden:

    49.78$

    Zuckerberg can do whatever he wants. I hear people bashing him for not showing/wearing hoodies to meetings in NYC.

    Who the fuck cares? If I was him I'd be doing whatever I wanted also.

    Wow he might not make his company worth as much. It's pretty irrelevant to his life anyhow. He's already SET/ one of the richest people in the world.


    I don't think he cares what anyone thinks and I don't think it's just about the money with him, either.  He's put himself in a position where he doesn't have to care what other people think and he certainly doesn't have to worry about money.

    I wouldn't care if he showed up in a clown suit to be honest.  

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Madden:

    49.78$

    Zuckerberg can do whatever he wants. I hear people bashing him for not showing/wearing hoodies to meetings in NYC.

    Who the fuck cares? If I was him I'd be doing whatever I wanted also.

    Wow he might not make his company worth as much. It's pretty irrelevant to his life anyhow. He's already SET/ one of the richest people in the world.


    I don't think he cares what anyone thinks and I don't think it's just about the money with him, either.  He's put himself in a position where he doesn't have to care what other people think and he certainly doesn't have to worry about money.

    I wouldn't care if he showed up in a clown suit to be honest.  

     
    SportsFan9698
    SportsFan9698
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    Posts: 5575
    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:16 PM ET #24

    Facebook will be irrelevent withing 5 years - my guess

     

    Sell into the hype

    Reply

    Facebook will be irrelevent withing 5 years - my guess

     

    Sell into the hype

     
     
    SportsFan9698
    SportsFan9698
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    Posts: 5575
    Posted: May. 18, 2012 - 12:18 PM ET #25

    Looks like a few smart peeps were able to sell north of $40...

    It's trading down now

    Reply

    Looks like a few smart peeps were able to sell north of $40...

    It's trading down now

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