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    All Forums | General Discussion

    A PERFECT example of how books set lines and don't know what they hell they are doing. You want in?

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    bunny651
    samuelsosa
    scalabrine
    searchwarrant
    wallstreetcappers
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 2248
    Posts: 55
    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    bunny651
    bunny651
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    Posts: 6709
    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:10 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

     

    Make sure you area looking at the right bet.

     

    It is Joey Chestnut OVER 63.5 dogs eaten.

     

     

    Yes, it is. I check back and now is at over 65.5 -115. I throw a couple hundred just for the value alone. Thanks, Sal.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

     

    Make sure you area looking at the right bet.

     

    It is Joey Chestnut OVER 63.5 dogs eaten.

     

     

    Yes, it is. I check back and now is at over 65.5 -115. I throw a couple hundred just for the value alone. Thanks, Sal.

     
    samuelsosa
    samuelsosa
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:11 PM ET #27

    SCAL a couple things I want to say hopefully you get back to me before the contest.

    I've been watching Matt Stonie videos on youtube for about two years now. He's a beast. He also took the contest down last year.

    You know all this already.

    I was pissed when my local who has an overseas style website, wasn't offering odds on the contest.

    I wanted Stonie.

    What are the odds for Stonie vs Chestnut.

     

    Also in 2012 CHESTNUT put up 68

    in 2013 he put up 69.

    Wow. amazing.

    Today only needs 66 for you to cash.

    in 2014 he put up 61

    in 2015 he put up 60

     

    Now I don't know about hot dog eating trends but I feel you are putting way too much into his qualifying score , and not much into his actual score from this contest last two years. Qualifying is different. I don't even know why he'd go so hard during qualifiers.

    I don't know how eating 73.5 dogs two weeks ago will affect him today. He can also throw up. People going all in on this contest are insane.

    Reply

    SCAL a couple things I want to say hopefully you get back to me before the contest.

    I've been watching Matt Stonie videos on youtube for about two years now. He's a beast. He also took the contest down last year.

    You know all this already.

    I was pissed when my local who has an overseas style website, wasn't offering odds on the contest.

    I wanted Stonie.

    What are the odds for Stonie vs Chestnut.

     

    Also in 2012 CHESTNUT put up 68

    in 2013 he put up 69.

    Wow. amazing.

    Today only needs 66 for you to cash.

    in 2014 he put up 61

    in 2015 he put up 60

     

    Now I don't know about hot dog eating trends but I feel you are putting way too much into his qualifying score , and not much into his actual score from this contest last two years. Qualifying is different. I don't even know why he'd go so hard during qualifiers.

    I don't know how eating 73.5 dogs two weeks ago will affect him today. He can also throw up. People going all in on this contest are insane.

     
    samuelsosa
    samuelsosa
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:14 PM ET #28

    I think at -165, it is spot on.

    -165 is not cheap. It is the favorite.

    Can Chestnut eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can. Has done it many times.

    Did it two weeks ago.

    Can Chestnut not eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can.

    Happened last two times at this same event, on this same day, at this same location!

    I think this has ZERO value Scal. But good luck. I have no action.

     

    Reply

    I think at -165, it is spot on.

    -165 is not cheap. It is the favorite.

    Can Chestnut eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can. Has done it many times.

    Did it two weeks ago.

    Can Chestnut not eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can.

    Happened last two times at this same event, on this same day, at this same location!

    I think this has ZERO value Scal. But good luck. I have no action.

     

     
    bunny651
    bunny651
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:15 PM ET #29

    I meant I bet that at over 63.5 +135 just for the value alone. Thanks!
    Reply
    I meant I bet that at over 63.5 +135 just for the value alone. Thanks!
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:40 PM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

    SCAL a couple things I want to say hopefully you get back to me before the contest.

    I've been watching Matt Stonie videos on youtube for about two years now. He's a beast. He also took the contest down last year.

    You know all this already.

    I was pissed when my local who has an overseas style website, wasn't offering odds on the contest.

    I wanted Stonie.

    What are the odds for Stonie vs Chestnut.

     

    Also in 2012 CHESTNUT put up 68

    in 2013 he put up 69.

    Wow. amazing.

    Today only needs 66 for you to cash.

    in 2014 he put up 61

    in 2015 he put up 60

     

    Now I don't know about hot dog eating trends but I feel you are putting way too much into his qualifying score , and not much into his actual score from this contest last two years. Qualifying is different. I don't even know why he'd go so hard during qualifiers.

    I don't know how eating 73.5 dogs two weeks ago will affect him today. He can also throw up. People going all in on this contest are insane.

     

    I figured someone would ask this and I counter with, "Would you have rather him have eaten 53.5 dogs a week ago?"

    The stomach expands. Just the fact he did this at all at any time shows he has the capacity to down a record amount of dogs, never done in human history in that time.

     

    Hot Dogs are like mountains. They don't change. Climb it once you can certainly climb it again. And Hot Dogs are far easier in that regard.

    Teams? They adjust. If you beat a team by 50 today you can lose by 50 tomorrow. Just ask the Spurs when they played OKC.

    Dogs? They don't adjust. But your stomach does. And we know Chestnut's stomach adjusted to down this amount of dogs!

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

    SCAL a couple things I want to say hopefully you get back to me before the contest.

    I've been watching Matt Stonie videos on youtube for about two years now. He's a beast. He also took the contest down last year.

    You know all this already.

    I was pissed when my local who has an overseas style website, wasn't offering odds on the contest.

    I wanted Stonie.

    What are the odds for Stonie vs Chestnut.

     

    Also in 2012 CHESTNUT put up 68

    in 2013 he put up 69.

    Wow. amazing.

    Today only needs 66 for you to cash.

    in 2014 he put up 61

    in 2015 he put up 60

     

    Now I don't know about hot dog eating trends but I feel you are putting way too much into his qualifying score , and not much into his actual score from this contest last two years. Qualifying is different. I don't even know why he'd go so hard during qualifiers.

    I don't know how eating 73.5 dogs two weeks ago will affect him today. He can also throw up. People going all in on this contest are insane.

     

    I figured someone would ask this and I counter with, "Would you have rather him have eaten 53.5 dogs a week ago?"

    The stomach expands. Just the fact he did this at all at any time shows he has the capacity to down a record amount of dogs, never done in human history in that time.

     

    Hot Dogs are like mountains. They don't change. Climb it once you can certainly climb it again. And Hot Dogs are far easier in that regard.

    Teams? They adjust. If you beat a team by 50 today you can lose by 50 tomorrow. Just ask the Spurs when they played OKC.

    Dogs? They don't adjust. But your stomach does. And we know Chestnut's stomach adjusted to down this amount of dogs!

     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:43 PM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

    I think at -165, it is spot on.

    -165 is not cheap. It is the favorite.

    Can Chestnut eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can. Has done it many times.

    Did it two weeks ago.

    Can Chestnut not eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can.

    Happened last two times at this same event, on this same day, at this same location!

    I think this has ZERO value Scal. But good luck. I have no action.

     

     

    You are looking at 'value' in terms of sports betting.

    Hot dog eating is not a traditional competitive sport.

    It is man vs. FOOD NOT man vs. team.

    Hot Dogs do NOT adjust and HOT DOGS are not motivated to beat you like teams.

    -165 in that regard is FREE MONEY. The books are not geniuses here. In fact they've adjust this line all the way up from -165 to -250 and even -300 on sites.

    That ALONE speaks to how much value it has now with regard to this post.

    If you want in, you have about 5 minutes. It's free money even at

    -200 plus...

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

    I think at -165, it is spot on.

    -165 is not cheap. It is the favorite.

    Can Chestnut eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can. Has done it many times.

    Did it two weeks ago.

    Can Chestnut not eat 64 dogs?

    Sure can.

    Happened last two times at this same event, on this same day, at this same location!

    I think this has ZERO value Scal. But good luck. I have no action.

     

     

    You are looking at 'value' in terms of sports betting.

    Hot dog eating is not a traditional competitive sport.

    It is man vs. FOOD NOT man vs. team.

    Hot Dogs do NOT adjust and HOT DOGS are not motivated to beat you like teams.

    -165 in that regard is FREE MONEY. The books are not geniuses here. In fact they've adjust this line all the way up from -165 to -250 and even -300 on sites.

    That ALONE speaks to how much value it has now with regard to this post.

    If you want in, you have about 5 minutes. It's free money even at

    -200 plus...

     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:44 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by bunny651:

    I meant I bet that at over 63.5 +135 just for the value alone. Thanks!
     Great bet. Good for you for getting a ridiculous line.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by bunny651:

    I meant I bet that at over 63.5 +135 just for the value alone. Thanks!
     Great bet. Good for you for getting a ridiculous line.
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:50 PM ET #33

    10.1 dogs per minute for Chestnut in a 10 minute contest. Looking good already.
    Reply
    10.1 dogs per minute for Chestnut in a 10 minute contest. Looking good already.
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:55 PM ET #34

    Already at 60 with 2 minutes left.
    Reply
    Already at 60 with 2 minutes left.
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:56 PM ET #35

    66.

     

    Everyone wins.

     

    And more coming.

    Reply

    66.

     

    Everyone wins.

     

    And more coming.

     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 12:57 PM ET #36

    70

    Reply

    70

     
    searchwarrant
    searchwarrant
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:00 PM ET #37

    Wow. That was incredible - 70 dogs down the gullet. Happy for Joey.

    Hell of scout and tip Scal...thank you.

    Reply

    Wow. That was incredible - 70 dogs down the gullet. Happy for Joey.

    Hell of scout and tip Scal...thank you.

     
    bunny651
    bunny651
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:08 PM ET #38

    Great call, Scal !

    Reply

    Great call, Scal !

     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:15 PM ET #39

    Search Bunny

    Glad someone paid attention and profited. 
    Reply
    Search Bunny

    Glad someone paid attention and profited. 
     
    samuelsosa
    samuelsosa
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:18 PM ET #40

    Well done and well capped I suppose Scal

     

    Sucked to see my boy Stonie go down. Chestnut was on a mission this year. Apparently you saw that.

    Reply

    Well done and well capped I suppose Scal

     

    Sucked to see my boy Stonie go down. Chestnut was on a mission this year. Apparently you saw that.

     
    samuelsosa
    samuelsosa
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:22 PM ET #41

    I wanted Stonie, what were the odds?
    Reply
    I wanted Stonie, what were the odds?
     
    scalabrine
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:25 PM ET #42

    Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

    I wanted Stonie, what were the odds?
    appreciate it!

    Stonie went off at about +120/+130 depending on the site.

    The fact that he didn't compete in that qualifier where Chestnut ate 73.5 raised red flags.

    Still his YouTube videos are incredible. And he seems like a good guy.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by samuelsosa:

    I wanted Stonie, what were the odds?
    appreciate it!

    Stonie went off at about +120/+130 depending on the site.

    The fact that he didn't compete in that qualifier where Chestnut ate 73.5 raised red flags.

    Still his YouTube videos are incredible. And he seems like a good guy.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:37 PM ET #43

    Nice work...

    Reply
    Nice work...

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 1:48 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Nice work...



    Appreciate it Wall. 



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Nice work...



    Appreciate it Wall. 



     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 2:46 PM ET #45

    Well done Scal. This is a great example of how to make money....who cares what kind of bet it is, money is money.
    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
    Reply
    Well done Scal. This is a great example of how to make money....who cares what kind of bet it is, money is money.
     
    HoustonSports
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 2:47 PM ET #46

    Reply
     
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 3:25 PM ET #47

    Scal had a well educated opinion regarding men sticking hot dogs in their mouths.


    Some jokes just write themselves!
    bigreds daddy
    Reply
    Scal had a well educated opinion regarding men sticking hot dogs in their mouths.


    Some jokes just write themselves!
     
    JTmonayyy
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 3:29 PM ET #48

    Great call Scal!
    Reply
    Great call Scal!
     
    SwishSwish1234
    SwishSwish1234
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    Joined: May, 2011
    Posts: 3173
    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 3:29 PM ET #49

    Scal is probably one of the most split personalities i've ever come across, Some threads can make you fall in love with the fella and some threads can make you so angry with him, It's hilarious, You got to love him for this gem though. 


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    Scal is probably one of the most split personalities i've ever come across, Some threads can make you fall in love with the fella and some threads can make you so angry with him, It's hilarious, You got to love him for this gem though. 


     
     
    TRAIN69
    TRAIN69
    Legend
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    Joined: Oct, 2002
    Posts: 55731
    Posted: Jul. 4, 2016 - 6:17 PM ET #50

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