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A PERFECT example of how books set lines and don't know what they hell they are doing. You want in?

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Posted: #1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2016/07/01/joey-chestnuts-hot-dog-eating-world-record-setting-redemption-tour/

Laugh all you want. Call me a degen for betting on a hot dog eating contest.

Right now on 5Dimes a Joey Chestnut prop is GIVING away free money:

On July 4th, Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, Joey Cheatnut:

Over 63.5 Dogs -165

Look for yourself. That is the line right now!


Folks, read the link above. In the qualifier leading up to this contest he ate 73.5!!! in ten minutes!!!! That is the same amount of time he'll get tomorrow!

Ive already pounded this into oblivion. You don't even have to bet that he'll win against Matt Stonie (a harder bet). Just that he'll eat over 63.5 dogs, a number he just beat last week by a whopping 10!!

This line will go up but even over -200 it has major value!!


 
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Posted: #2
Hell I'm in. 
 
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Posted: #3
You will win and the later people get to this, as expected, the worse the line will be.
 
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Posted: #4
I just added to the bet 
Baseball is impossible, dog eating has a chance. Good luck and thnx for the tip.
 
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Posted: #5
I'm seeing "Hot Dogs Eaten by Men's 2016 Main Event Winner" over 65.5 -145 on Pinny. 

Nothing with respect to Joey. What do you think about this line, Scal?
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by searchwarrant:

I just added to the bet 
Baseball is impossible, dog eating has a chance. Good luck and thnx for the tip.

Agreed. I don't even bet baseball but I read some of the posts. All these guys taking stud pitchers for huge negative Ml's and that is the day the pitcher gives up 10 runs. 

This -165 in a hot dog contest has huge value compared to that lunacy.

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:

I'm seeing "Hot Dogs Eaten by Men's 2016 Main Event Winner" over 65.5 -145 on Pinny. 

Nothing with respect to Joey. What do you think about this line, Scal?

Yes I'd take that because you get Matt Stonie in that bet too and he is the 2 time defending champ. And I've watched many of his videos and contests. He is an absolute animal and will not go quietly here. They will both push each other tomorrow to break the July 4th Record of 69 (I believe) and you only need to get to 66. And you get them both! 

But I'm surprised you can't find the O/U for just Chestnut. They should offer that and 63.5 is an absolute winner.
 
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Posted: #8
matt stonie!

i dunno about that over and under bet though
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mainman11111:

matt stonie!

i dunno about that over and under bet though

Stonie may not even win the contest. How can you take him if Chestnut just ate 73 dogs in ten minutes? Stonie ate 62 dogs last year. He is in deep shi* here.

But we don't even have to care about that. We just need Chestnut to eat 9 fewer dogs than what he ate last week. NINE F E W E R! That's it. Win or not. 

If you don't see massive value in that even at a line like -200, I can't help ya man.

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Agreed. I don't even bet baseball but I read some of the posts. All these guys taking stud pitchers for huge negative Ml's and that is the day the pitcher gives up 10 runs. 

This -165 in a hot dog contest has huge value compared to that lunacy.


Then you bet against a gas can and he throws 7 innings of 2 hit baseball. 
I hope the line stays at -160 tonight because I'm all in. 

 
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Posted: #12
I am seeing over 63.5 at +110 at BetUS right now for Joey C
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by HoustonSports:

I am seeing over 63.5 at +110 at BetUS right now for Joey C
The same wager is -160 at Heritage
 
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Posted: #14
If it's really +110, I would pound it beyond recognition.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by searchwarrant:


Then you bet against a gas can and he throws 7 innings of 2 hit baseball. 
I hope the line stays at -160 tonight because I'm all in. 


Not gonna stay at -160 Search, we both know it. The more this gets out the more the books will realize they royally fu**ed up.
 
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Posted: #16
Just heard that Chestnut woke up constipated today.
May want to hedge your bet 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Not gonna stay at -160 Search, we both know it. The more this gets out the more the books will realize they royally fu**ed up.

Heritage pulled the total off, for now at least.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

Just heard that Chestnut woke up constipated today.
May want to hedge your bet 

Constipated? I think you mixed up the threads. This is a hot dog eating contest thread. Centaur has the thread on the hot dog shi++ing contest. Go talk to him about hedging.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by searchwarrant:


Heritage pulled the total off, for now at least.

5Dimes doubled the odds from -160 to -320 for OVER 63.5 dogs (which is still free money). Hillary is about the same odds in a campaign where she has the FBI interviewing her. Who wants to deal with that when we can have the same amount of money by 1pm today watching people eat dogs?!?

The great thing about this bet is that the two champs, Stonie and Chestnut, have their careers hinging on this. No one cares how many buffalo wings or potato skins you ate in some other contest. This contest sets you up with a slew of promotional appearances for the year. Win it and you contract a job for one year and all you have to do on the job is show up, smile and eat.

Chestnut wants his title back badly and Stonie is just remarkable in terms of his size and the quantity of food he can eat. One of these guys will die before he loses. And Stonie knows Chestnut just ate 73 dogs so he will have to be eating at a pace where he must down 67/68/69 dogs. And Chestnut already knows he can do that! 63.5 is toast in that regard.




 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

If it's really +110, I would pound it beyond recognition.
I played it for a couple of hundred. It is now over 65.5 at -110 at BetUS
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by HoustonSports:

I played it for a couple of hundred. It is now over 65.5 at -110 at BetUS

 

Mine is over 63.5 +135. What gives?

 
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Posted: #22

@Houston

@Bunny - Who cares!? See the article in the OP. He ate 73 a week ago.

Just because someone is pounding the under and moving that line doesn't mean you have to stay off that bet. If my line were 63.5 +135, I'd literally break my mouse tapping it so hard to get money down.

 

Also, as an added bonus this is the 100th anniversary of Nathan's Famous heightening the spectacle and the drive of the competitor's to break the record (which is 69 in this individual contest). Definitely a motivator and brings more publicity to the contest which drives these competitors (who make their money off nothing but publicity for what would otherwise be in irrelevant 'sport').

 

 
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Posted: #23

Also, apparently, for the first time that I can remember, this even WILL NOT be live on ESPN.

It can only be live-streamed and ESPN will air a replay at 3PM EST.

If you want to watch it live at 12:40 EST, go here:

https://www.nathansfamous.com/hot-dog-eating-contest/main-event

 

 
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Posted: #24

That's just the promotional site apparently. Go here on ESPN3:

 https://espn.go.com/watchespn/player/_/id/2834644/

 

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by bunny651:

 

Mine is over 63.5 +135. What gives?

 

 

Make sure you area looking at the right bet.

 

It is Joey Chestnut OVER 63.5 dogs eaten.

 

 

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