Offer from my local for NFL

Question

My local has made me the following offer for my NFL betting this coming season. FYI, my typical straight wager amount has always been 2200/2000.

For any NFL game throughout the entire season, I can bet either team at a point spread of -7 risking 3000 to win 2000 (-150 vig). I wouldn't be able to place any other bets but I can do the above spread and dollars on any game I want and on as many games as I want. The only stipulation is I must do at least one game per weekend during the regular season and playoffs.

I guess I need to figure out what true point spread I'd be getting a better deal than, and how often that point spread comes up. My initial math tells me a favorite -11 or higher Is what I'd be looking to bet. Reason being, buying 4 points on an 11 pt fav would prob be higher than -150

Michael990 · Answer

My local has made me the following offer for my NFL betting this coming season. FYI, my typical straight wager amount has always been 2200/2000.

For any NFL game throughout the entire season, I can bet either team at a point spread of -7 risking 3000 to win 2000 (-150 vig). I wouldn't be able to place any other bets but I can do the above spread and dollars on any game I want and on as many games as I want. The only stipulation is I must do at least one game per weekend during the regular season and playoffs.

I guess I need to figure out what true point spread I'd be getting a better deal than, and how often that point spread comes up. My initial math tells me a favorite -11 or higher Is what I'd be looking to bet. Reason being, buying 4 points on an 11 pt fav would prob be higher than -150

vanzack · Answer

Interesting.&#xD;&#xA;My initial thought is that this is a bad deal for you.  The problem is that there will be weeks (especially early in the season) where you wont find 10&#x2B; point favs, and you have to bet one at -150.&#xD;&#xA;I guess some analysis would be in order to determine if you felt that there were some monumentally bad teams in the NFL for this coming season.  It would only take one horrible team to make this deal seem good.&#xD;&#xA;That is just off the top of my head.  Like you said, some research will bring all of this out....&#xD;&#xA;GL

GOPHERNATION12 · Answer

Start doing your homework now. My thought is that I would pass. If he let you have any dog &#x2B;7 as well as any favorite at -7 then it would be worth doing. But then again I think he would be out of business quickly.

dimndimn · Answer

Cantor has released the pointspreads for every week already. This may be of some assistance.

https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nfl/2013-05-06/nfl-point-spreads-2013-season-odds-betting-lines-las-vegas-sports-books-cantor

Offer from my local for NFL

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