WC FINAL 2018

I will not be posting a pick at this point it is too early.  

Initial thoughts:

Croatia was a 3/1 overlay vs Argentina and blew them out 3-0. Common opponent for France, as they beat Arg 3-2, with a poor plan for the match and allowing space for Griesmann to find Mbappe, whose moves and speed were not anticipated by defenders.

Other common opponent: Denmark. The best keeper, and most intimidating is the keeper of Denmark, Kasper Schmeichel. France failed to score that game, ended up drawing 0-0.Croatia drew w/ them 1-1, winning on PKs INEXPLICABLY as they were down early in the pks but gutted it out.

I am giving the edge vs common opponents to Croatia. 

France has the "bling" and the flambouancy, with heralded showboating of Mbappe, and the always unorthodox physicality of Pogba.

Croatia has the gut and heart to win now three games in ET. This kind of extraordinary good fortune might be a sign of a team of destiny, that they will not waste this moment. 

France has been in this spotlight before. In the Euro 2016 they were favored all tournament, and Portugal kept progressing through, and very few gave ronaldo and "lille" Portugal a chance. Well, Portugal manned up and brought home thr trophy. This was essentially the same team. I cannot help but think that France is going to be runner up again, whether as habit, or they cannot close the deal as they look so invincible to get to his final stage.

Croatia seems to make the right plays one on one, deflecting, maintaining possesion, frustrating opponents midfield, forcing them to make long passes to strikers on the wings. They seem to manage themselves, whereas France is managed from the bench, taking directives to play back and dig in. Croatia seems to be self managed, more mature, and I believe this maturity will show itself and contrast with France's youth.

Lloris is a great keeper, but Croatia has faced the best in Schmeichel and prevailed. Subasic won two matches through PKs for his team this tournament. Hopefully his hamstring is ok. He looked like he did not elevate on the first goal today. Reports on his status are important.

England appeared to look solid ONLY on set plays. France beat Belgium on a goal from a set play. Croatia did not attempt to cross the ball in on what seemed like most of their corners. I don't know what they are seeing or thinking on that. France is a threat on set plays, free kicks with Greissman delivering. 

This however is the biggest opening for France to exploit, because I see Croatia as the better self managed, team, poised, skillfull and electric. They inspire confidence in their play. France produces "ooohs and aaahhs" but that kind of breakawy attacks were essentially shutdown, and it was obvious England tried it repeatedly. France is a well managed machine, despite the flambouncy and "bling." Griesmann, Pavard and Giroud are excellent at pass accuracy and possesion control searching for a goal. 

I don't see this as a very bettable battle at the moment.

This will be a great match to witness.

Good points... Few counters - France is ascending in their play (their past two games, their best) , Croatia showed great fight coming back against England but they cannot exactly be categorized as ascendng. 2) The depletion from 3 extra time games and one day less rest.... 

Your observation that "France is ascending" and Croatia is not, and that Croatia has suffered "depletion" from 3 ET games, is your observation and perception.

To help understand the physical exertion, the time they played in each match is equivalent to a 10 K run. That is how much distance (+/- 1 K) ea player exerts, although this metric is observed for ea player and you can look it up.

Outside of the match with Argentina, sure looks to me like a cohesive, well coached team can lock down France's perceived "explosiveness." One set play goal vs Belgium (a well coached team) was the only goal (let's not count late threats when Belgium was trying to tie the match and were leaving the middle open). We all appreciate France's ostentatious exhibition of Mbappe and showcase his talent in this Tournament, to show off how the soccer infrastructure of France can produce and manage talent, and that talent is multinational. Impressive. Yet if people fail to appreciate the achievements of a less funded (not even close) soccer infrastructure devoid of huge corporate multinational interests, then we are living in a souless corporate world that dominates even our sports world escapes. Biggest bucks wins. 

France is supposed to vindicate multinationalism and big corporate money, the home of big spending PSG (the same team that told Cavani not to play against France, yet give his all to take out France's NEMESIS, Portugal and Ronaldo). FIFA loves France, their cultural politics, their big bucks and their market.

This will be a low scoring match. France will be fortunate to score on a set play. I hope the refs, who are FIFA refs, do not express their favoritism towards France.

either  way BOL...

Same to you. I see you have a future on France.

I think if anyone likes "les cox" (the c.ock, literally), they ought to look at the Balon d'Or. Before the Semis, Mbappe was favored along with Kane. Griezmann was at +1200 and Modric was a significant overlay at +800.

Griesmann has done so much more than Mbappe, being a part of just every significant goal for France. Argentina needed a coaching staff like France has, because they created the ridiculous moments of chasing Mbappe like Keystone cops.

I have not seen the odds yet.

Griezmann holds great value, and hopefully the "usefull idiot fans" are betting on Mbappe, and after he is shutout and Griezmann gets the lone goal of this game, would be a healthy payoff for a clever wager.

The public is pounding France early, but the Balon d'Or has Griesman's name on it, IMHO, and if anyone wants to refuse a hedge and double down on France, I would look at A. Griessman.

Both Modric and Griessman appear to have the soccer Gods "delighting to help them."

Referee for the Final has been named.

Nestor Patana, Argentinian.

An actor.

He officiated the 2014 quarterfinal match between France and Germany, which Germany won 1-0 and eventually won the Tournament in Brasil. He received high marks for this match. Kept tempers under control. He is 6'4" tall and in great physical fitness at age 43.

He will earn $50,000 for the four games he officiated in this Tournament.

CBS is well known for being the greatest manipulator of perception, fluffing and over hype, but useful as a good barometer of PUBLIC PERCEPTION before a large international and widely viewed event. CBS actually says Croatia has no advantage in this match, not midfield, not coaching, not dynamic stars, and yet they APPEAR to be predicting a close match. WHY IS THAT?

Their officially sanctioned predictions:

"France is just too talented, and they are on a roll. The country wins its second World Cup crown in regulation, with a dynamic attack threatening time and time against until a late winner comes from Kylian Mbappe. 2-1."

Is it safer to FADE CBS and not overthink it? Everything opposite would read like this:

"Croatia and France are equally talented midfield, while France has the more renowned strikers like Pogba and rising teenager sensation Kylian Mbappe. This match will not be decided in regulation as France's dynamic attacks are thwarted time and again by Croatia's veteran and well disciplined defenders. Croatia will have a hard time getting past Lloris. Expect a 0-0 or 1-1 Final, with a late stunning goal by Modric in ET, and Croatia pulls off yet another ET gut wrenching victory. Modric will win the Balon D'Or."

BEHOLD! The most beautiful President in the World!

The winner is announced at 1:30 minutes of the interview by the most beautiful, intelligent and gracious world leader you have never heard about.

Robben was a big time player on the biggest stage. "Manduzic is a player you do not want to play against, and one you wish were on your side" Mandzuzic plays for bayern, now Croatia. People are underestimating.

The Balon D'Or will go to either Antoine Griezzman or Luka Modric. PERIOD.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jul/14/luka-modric-worlds-greatest-croatia-france-world-cup-final

Modric has been named "Midfielder of the Year on 10 different occassions, including 2016 while playing for Real MADRID. He has played for the Tott Spurs and Dynamo. 

Many publication before the WC called the Croatia Midfield "the best of the Tournament." Any handicapper who says France is equal or better at midfield than Croatia is throwing out hogwash.

Many fine handicappers have a SERIOUS handicap themselves, and that is UNDERESTIMATING an opponent. The same handicappers who underestimated France and Croatia to even be in the quarterfinals, CANNOT be trusted for an opinion about this game, or their opinions must be taken lightly. 

The last 5 years we have seen major "upsets" including the Chi Cubs, KC Royals, last yr Phi Eagles, Leicester winning the Premier, Greece, Denmark and Portugal winning the Euro Cup (the Euro is a sall sister to the WC but the same Euro teams collide on this stage). The biggest underestimated championship was the US Presidency, when pundits and gamblers UNDERESTIMATED the political gamemanship and messaging of Donald Trump. 

1. Croatia is guided pre-game and in game by the veteran players. This contrasts with the heavy handed over the top controlling style of Deschamps. 

2. Midfield domination is equivalent to a line of scrimmage domination in Amer football. You can try beating Alabama by throwing long bombs, but by the 4th qtr, Alabama's athletes and control of the line of scrimmage will stop you from playing your game.

3. NO WAY France will win by more than a goal. Descamps does not coach this way, and even after a 2-0 lead, there will not be any attacking. Only someone ignorant (IGNORING) the classy and controlled manner in which France plays would say that they will win by such a score.  If anyone has a chance at winning 3-0, it is Croatia.

Final score Prediction:

Croatia 2

France 0

LOL at France getting shut out.

"The Balon D'Or will go

to either Antoine Griezzman or Luka Modric. PERIOD."

Only thing I got correct. I felt Griessman deserved it. The late goals by Pogba and Mbappe were goals scored on a desperate out of position Croatian defense. 

His flop caused the ref to give him the free kick. They were doing nothing offensively to Croatia. That goal was the game changer. The momentum was a crushing swing. Croatia was controlling time of possession. That penalty was the deciding factor. I knew that the refs would decide this one. The handball was just unfortunate and there was no advantage from hitting the ball with his hane. Another misfortunate play that France used and did not need. 

Hats off to the marketing of France. They gave the 19 yr old Mbappe number 10 and wanted him to have the same number as Pele, and become another Pele on the WC stage. Somehow it worked out. I do not like the showoff nature of France. I did not like the "L Dance" by Greissman, I f=do not like childish antics of Pogba. 

The flash won out. 

Congrats to the young country of Croatia, playing against the best of Europe, a tiny country of 4 million playing against a multinational corporate megaheap nation of 100 million Bolshevicks. 

I still think soccer in the WC should be less corporate, feature true nationals, and have better officiating. The game is flawed. Yet it is still attention getting. The Roosters got this one. 

Later. I only came for the drama of the WC.