Baseball Keeper Question

Looking for some feedback.  League is 5x5 roto, with 13 teams.  We keep 5 players, with no impact on draft position whatsoever.  We keep any 5.  Here is who I am looking at:

Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Jon Lester
Jose Reyes
Jacoby Ellsbury
Nelson Cruz

I am trying to decide between Ellsbury and Cruz for my last player.  I lean to Ellsbury, as he is younger.  Having Reyes and Ellsbury would put me at the front of the stolen base category, as well.  Cruz can flat out rake, and lead your team when he goes on his streaks.  Cruz is also 30 years old, and injury prone.  I realize the inherent risk with Ellsbury and Reyes being banged up the last 2 years.  However, SS is extremely thin IMO.  Ellsbury hasnt had any injury issues before last years broken ribs.  Francona wants to keep him at the top of the lineup, and should score a ton of runs.

This is an ultra competitive league that I have been apart of the last 5 years.  Just looking for some different points of view, before I submit.  Thanks guys.

I finished in 2nd last year, so I will be drafting in the 12 spot this year.

I'd keep ellsbury.. if he puts up the stats similar to 2 years ago, he'll be a great roto player. Considering you have reyes also, you can always trade ellsbury down the road for a power hitter if you need to build up those catorgories... especially if you build up a big lead in steals

votto and miggy has the power..take ellsbury.so that you can balance wth 2 speedster and 2 power hitters., i like cruz but ellsbury has a lot to prove with boston lineup

cabrera and votto are no brainers. Lester too.

that leaves 2 spots for cruz, ellsbury and reyes.

 

I'd keep reyes just b/c there probably isn't much else out there. Ellsbury and Cruz are high risk/reward guys b/c of their injury history.

I just like ellsbury a bit more than Cruz.  If he reaches his potential, he is a guy that doesn't hurt you in any catagory and could lead the league in SBs. If he bats 9th, its a little scary but I think he is a great candidate for a bounce back year.

Cruz, if heathly, should mash a bunch of HRs but I see his AVG and SB totals coming down from last year.

I think finding someone to supplant his HRs is a little easier than finding someone who could steal 50+ bags.

Hope that helps....

Thanks guys, appreciate the input.  I will most likely let Cruz go.  Still have a few more weeks before keepers are due.  BOL with your drafts this year.

The Green Team Keepers for 2011

Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jose Reyes
Jon Lester

I am going to need some power at the beginning of this draft.  Not sure who everyone else is keeping at this point.  But I will be focusing on getting a couple more big bats.

smart move---  good bye mr cruz,,,  

   I was in 1st for 3 months last year until my dream team got hurt--  I lost Pedoria/Morneau/cruz /either.....

I can keep 3 guys    -- matter of fact Jose_ reyes---p.m me

Throw back Ellsbury. Cruz will supply you with power and is a good bet for 15-20 steals. Ellsbury is hitting 9th and what's the difference between him and Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn? About 30 to 50 draft positions.

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Thanks for the responses fellas.  I am actually going back and forth on my decision.  The more and more I think about it, Cruz's power potential is harder to replace than Ellsbury's speed.  I like Ellsbury to bounce back, but I dont like having 2 speed guys.  I find it hard to throw back an elite bat like Cruz.

timdogs,  I sent you a PM.

I would take Jeff Niemann in a heart beat over Hellickson this year.  Next year very well may be a different story.

Hellickson will be eligible at RP which is kind of nice ... one of my leagues allows us to start these types of guys, with SP and RP eligibility, in our RP spot. I'm hoping to nab him in the later rounds

I understand that.  I just have a hard time buying into these rookies, before they prove themselves over a full season.  Another thing to remember when drafting rookie pitchers, is that they will be limited to a certain amount of innings pitched.  150 is usually around the number for rookies.  So while a rookie pitcher may do well all year long, come September they are shut down.  That can hurt your team, when trying to make a push at the end of the season.  I actually meant to post the Hellickson comment in the 'players who will be on all my teams' thread. 

i like cruz.. just because of the way i build my teams. you have an elite steals guy. so you can draft however you want. if you happen to get another in the big rounds, it wont be overkill. but if not, you can always get a big steals of/2b very late.

I agree.  Too hard to pass up on the power that Cruz provides.  Stolen bases available later in draft.  My only concern throwing back Ellsbury, is with the future.  If Ellsbury returns to form, he is an elite OF option and is only 27. 

cruz

Haha.  Nolasco wasnt on any of my teams last year.  He was too pricey.  I really am not in love with Nolasco.  I just think he has a ton of value this year, due to his poor numbers last year.  BOL with your season mismatch

thats some nice keepers u got there. i'd toss ellsbury too.

toss Ellsbury....as a red sox fan I've watch him play a lot and he loves to dive for balls and throw himself into the wall which leads to injuries

i have a good sleeper for you jose_reyes.this guy would probably not get drafted in your league..take TSUYOSHI NISHIOKA of minnesota,,

Thanks guys.  I ended up keeping Cruz, and let Ellsbury go. 

toto:  Thanks for the tip.  I have targeted Nishioka late in my mock drafts.  Looks like he has the 2nd base job, and 2 spot in the order locked up.  Should be a decent bargain toward the end of drafts.  BOL this year.