Oregon State at Utah (10/02/2008)

[Quote: Originally Posted by TPASHOW]

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Yeah anyone know why OSU starts school so late??

UTAH UTAH UTAH!!!!!

Rodgers will not rush 100+ yards on Utah like he did USC

UTAH is the play!!

just some rushing stats to look over for this game

Utah is ranked:

#14 in total rush yards defense (301)
#4 in average yards per rush defense (2.0)
#5 in rush yards given up per game (60.2)
#10 in 1st downs given up rushing (18)

Team by team:

Weber State
total against utah = 56
average per rush against utah = 2.3
total average for their other games = 119
average per rush for their other games = 3.5

air force
total against utah = 53
average per rush against utah = 1.3
total average for their other games = 358
average per rush for their other games = 5.1

utah state
total against utah 27
average per rush against utah = 1.1
total average for their other games = 185
average per rush for their other games = 4.9

unlv
total against utah = 129
average per rush against utah = 3.7
total average for their other games = 133
average per rush for their other games = 4.1

Michigan
total against utah = 36
average per rush against utah = 1.4
total average for their other games = 168
average per rush for their other games = 4.5

For the season:
Opponents average per rush against Utah = 2.0
Opponents total average against Utah = 56.2
Opponents average per rush against others = 4.4
Opponents total average for their other games = 192.6

Now Oregon State this season:
Rushed for 86 yards (3.1 avg) in a loss at Stanford (Stanford gives up 128 and 3.4)
Rushed for 92 yards (2.9 avg) in a loss at Penn State (Penn St gives up 80 and 2.5)
Rushed for 217 yards (4.3 avg) in a home win vs. Hawaii (Hawaii gives up 135 and 3.5)
Rushed for 176 yards (3.9 avg) in a home win vs. USC (USC gives up 93 and 2.3)

So statisticly speaking:
Utah holds their opponents to 45% of their average rushing yards per attempt
Utah holds their opponents to 29% of their average total rushing yards per game
Oregon St averages 24% more per rushing attempt than their opponent gives up
Oregon St averages 30% more per game rushing than their opponent gives up

I expect OSU to play a little hungover and not as chippy against a lowly non-BCS school....Utes will be prepared will be ready for the Beavs unlike the Trojans 

That being said and I look at the stats.......and I  took 3 stats classes in Grad school( stats have lost me plenty over the years) ....I m liking  a small play on the Beavs.  Maybe a first half on the Utes and then a outright win by OSU

Date var tmpBrandBuf = new StringBuffer();

Bet $50.00  to Win $45.45 50.00 45.45
Team	Line
10/02/08	OregonSt	+11
21:05 ET

Are you kidding me? Oregon will at least cover

UTAH will blow out the Beavers.

I'am taking UTAH -11 

UTAH will blow out the Beavers.

I'am taking UTAH -11 

Oregon State plays good at home but they aren't playin at home this week.  They don't have the fans to back them up.  Look for Utah to Run the ball pretty effectively against Oregon State. 

Utah -11

I have been looking for reasons to fade my own thinking on taking Utah this week and I can't find any. Utah is golden in this matchup. They are playing with revenge to begin with and they are 6-0 ats in this position after scoring 35 or more points in their previous game and 7-0 ats as double digit home favorites when playing against a .500 or less oppoenent. Game six has been kind to them recently as they are 8-1 ats in game six affairs. Throw in a 22-1422-14 ats record off a double digit win and 14-7 ats record playing with revenge against non-conference competition, and you have the makings of a woodshed job in the making. Coach Whittingham has reminded his troops of how Oregon State was still throwing the ball after the game last year was well in the bag when they played them in Corvallis shorthanded.

They got caught peeking ahead in their schedule when playing Weber State last week allowing Weber State to move the ball through the air after they had what they thought was an insurmaountable lead, allowing Weber to make the final outcome closer than it really was.

Oregon State is 0-7 way after back to back ats wins playing against an opponent off a straight up win, and a 6-15 non conference ats record in revenge games and a 17-25 ats record in that same position playing an opponent off a straight up win, and 3-8 away off back to back straight up and ats wins.

According to the moneyline (-440/+340) the spread should be -10 for Oregon State, and that is the number I choose to play this game at after I buy a point.

Oregon State-10 Buying a point to get on the key number    

And I also meant Utah-10, duh!