Oregon State at Utah (10/02/2008)

From what I have read, Utah goes into the OSU game disappointed and frustrated they did not make the national statement they desired to make in the Weber State game. They were hoping to get noticed with a 40 to 50 point drubbing but the 2 late scores made it look like they had their hands full. The week before it took a last minute touchdown to beat an Air Force team they were favored to beat by 9.5. Their normal routine is disrupted by playing on a short week. The Utes are not going into this the game as the more confident team. They will be fired up, no doubt, but even they have to be wondering why they are 12 point favorites against the team that just handled number one. Have they noticed what has happened to favorites on Thursday nights this year?

Hopefully they are not too impressed with their own 5-0 record. They appear to be like many teams of seasons past that are unranked at the start of the season but find themselves undefeated and knocking on the door of the top 10, desperate to enter. Their rise in the rankings is due to a noticable win in week one, a weak schedule, and the losses of teams ranked above them, rather than their own outstanding performances. In the past Week 6 has not been kind to teams like this.

Many will place value on the Utah win in the Big House, given Michigan’s recent upset of Wisco. Michigan has improved since then playing superior competition, while Utah has not developed in a similar fashion. Utah also spent all summer getting ready for Michigan and won’t have the time to prepare for OSU.

The situation for an letdown is obvious, but OSU has already suffered a huge letdown when they failed to show up at Penn State. Their recent experience should be good preparation as they travel to Rice-Eccles, a difficult place to play. The 45K in SLC, however, can’t match the intimidation of 108K in Happy Valley.

The Oregon State defeat of Southern Cal wasn’t a fluke but featured well-played, fundamental football. There were no lucky turnovers, surprises, or huge game-changing plays. Oregon State ran the same running play at least 30 times against the Trojans and they couldn’t stop it. The OSU defense shut out Southern Cal offense in the first half.

Last year OSU won 24-7. While Utah QB Johnson was hurt, he did play in the first half to a 7-7 tie. Yvenson Bernard ran for 174 yards and 2 TDs against the Utes and Sammy Stroughter did not play. Jacquizz Rodgers should have similar success and Stroughter’s presence can’t be ignored.

I’ll take Oregon State +12 on the road.