Louisiana State at Mississippi State (09/15/2011)

When you're dealing with statistics, always remember 2 things. 1)Always list your sources. 2) You can't omit or inject certain criteria that helps or doesn't help your case.

Below is every Thursday night game that was on the board for 2010-2011. I used Covers.com (In the scoreboard section of NCAAF) to validate each game. Obviously different books may have different lines, but for this purpose a single source should get the point across. I've bolded the actual covers in "Red" for your review.

Week 1 (09/02)- OHIST (-28), MTENN (-1), SOCAR (-13), IOWST (-4), UAB (-13), UTAH (-3)- P, USC (-20)

Week 2 (09/09)- TEM (-7.5), AUB (-1)

Week 3 (09/16)- NCST (-2)

Week 4 (09/23)- MIAMI (-4)

Week 5 (09/30)- OKLST (-2.5)

Week 6 (10/07)- NEB (-11)

Week 7 (10/14)- WVIRG (-10), KANST (-3) 

Week 8 (10/21)- ORE (-26.5)

Week 9 (10/28)- FSU (-4.5)

Week 10 (11/04)- OHIO (-16), VATCH (-13)

Week 11 (11/11)- PITT (-6), UAB (-1.5)

Week 12 (11/18)- WASH (-2), AIRFC (-18.5)

Week 13 (11/25)- TXAM (-3)

Week 14 (12/02)- ARZ (-4)

For last season (10-11), favorites covered 56% of the time on Thursday nights. Not 87%, or the revised 70% bankjob claims. Bankjob, this isn't a personal attack, so please don't take it that way... I've been on this site for almost 3 years, but I have used this site for almost 6. There was a time that any information you found on this site was as true and as accurate as possible. Claims like bankjob's, although my assumption is most experienced cappers would know this claim is completely inaccurate, could sway rookies or less experienced cappers in making an illadvised play. This site is a helpful site and even when I'm not posting, I live on this site during football season. I just hope everyone gets as much out of it as I.

Bankjob- I checked your numbers, not to throw you under the bus, but for the very slight chance there was something to your claim. I'd be willing to bet (no pun intended) if you could prove to any one of us that 87% of the time we could make a particular play and win, that play would be played week in and week out. Trust me, I watch enough football in 1 season to cover that of an average person's life. I've been in or around football my entire life!! I still haven't found a perfect method. I've come to the realization I will never find a perfect method. Hence the reason I joined this site. This is a place we can all come together no matter what side of the game we're on and share insight. I wish you the best of luck this week and the rest of the season. 

As for the line movement, the line I typically watch opened @ LSU -4, moved to -3.5 yesterday, & is now back @ -4 w/ the majority of the public on LSU. I think watching the lines is a great "part" of capping a game, but it will burn you if that's the only thing you look for. I think every capper has certain things they look for, but it never hurts to have a little luck on your side, as well. With what I've seen from Miss State, they remind me a lot of last years Auburn. They are very physical and can run the ball very well. Chris Relf can put some heat on the ball and as long as his receivers hold on to the ball they will be very successful against these LSU DBs. These are two SEC teams, cut from the same cloth... They recruit from the same area, the players have the same attributes, and are coached to contend in a very physical & fast conference. This is Mississippi State's best chance at beating LSU... When the talent pool is relatively close, give me the team with a chip on their shouders. LSU is coming into Starksville to not get beat. Mississippi State is leaving it all on the field with nothing to lose...

Final Play is still Mississippi State +4 (5 Units)

Good luck to All...