Posted:
#76
do we have a thursday night espn home dog here?
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Louisiana State at Mississippi State (09/15/2011)
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by 2_For_Da_Money:
Miss state lose by three or win straight up you guys write up shiit like yall know more than vegas. Only game on thursday number 3 team vs # 25 and lined open at 3 or 3.5 going back and forth and 70 percent is on LSU. If this lined opened at +6 ya'll would probably still take LSU it is obvious who vegas likes i am starting to think some of you guys work for bookies. Time and time again i see the same ole crap and the opposite always happens. Home dog with the small pts wins more than lose PERIOD. Review most of the dogs who take 6 pts or less they will either win or cover. Don't believe me check out the scores from last week... I don't have the time to list them all.. Bunch of amateurs i got miss state at 3.5 please drive the pts up more so i can double up
. iF betting was so easy where we just rely on what we see on paper shiit we all be winners. You'll make more money paying attention to the line movement and public bet than what you actually see on paper PERIOD. My reaction would be totally different if there was a bunch of games where one game like this might slip and vegas lose but this is the only game meaning alot of action and for it to open at 3 knowing public will pound on LSU. I aint a sucka.
Miss state lose by three or win straight up you guys write up shiit like yall know more than vegas. Only game on thursday number 3 team vs # 25 and lined open at 3 or 3.5 going back and forth and 70 percent is on LSU. If this lined opened at +6 ya'll would probably still take LSU it is obvious who vegas likes i am starting to think some of you guys work for bookies. Time and time again i see the same ole crap and the opposite always happens. Home dog with the small pts wins more than lose PERIOD. Review most of the dogs who take 6 pts or less they will either win or cover. Don't believe me check out the scores from last week... I don't have the time to list them all.. Bunch of amateurs i got miss state at 3.5 please drive the pts up more so i can double up
. iF betting was so easy where we just rely on what we see on paper shiit we all be winners. You'll make more money paying attention to the line movement and public bet than what you actually see on paper PERIOD. My reaction would be totally different if there was a bunch of games where one game like this might slip and vegas lose but this is the only game meaning alot of action and for it to open at 3 knowing public will pound on LSU. I aint a sucka. Thank You!!! I can't believe that you people bet week in and week out and you don't realize how big home field is, especially in COLLEGE!!! Especially on PRIME TIME!!! Especially coming off a tough road SEC loss!!! Especially with opponent coming off big home win against Number 2 in the country!!!
MSU, make sure you get it up to 3.5 and you're a winner. Should be a really good game. Then Toledo tomorrow night.
I bet dogs and I win, everyone else bets favs and they lose....
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Posted:
#78
Besides capping the game, which i think that LSU is the more physcial team. I think msu will have a hard time scoring if thier going to just pound the ball.
Yes home field is big in college. The talent isnt too much of a gap where it is overwhelming. I think LSU is the better team.
Now as for line changes, the public is all over lsu and the spead has gone back to 3 ....make sense to you??? Thier tring to tell you late money is going on MSU...the other thing is that the cover experts are on MSU. those 2 factors tell me that LSU will cover this game, thursday night dog or not Im gonna fall for the trap and take LSU.
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Posted:
#81
Hey all.
Truth...
Nice post.
I'll lay off, thanks.
GL
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:
Gift??? No such thing in sports wagering on 18-22 kids.....easy money??? I know I won't quit my day job and try to make a living betting sports or playing poker.....and I'm not bad at either. The fact is here is that -3 is a head scratcher to most of us squares. If you look at where the sharp money and wise guy money goes, you'll probably see that it's being laid on MSU. The number hasn't really moved all week, so it looks like an even book on the game. LSU is coming off a sacrificial lamb slaughter last week. They got every bounce of the ball against Oregon on a neutral field 2 weeks ago and caught injuries to key runners during the middle of that game. Plus, the style of play that Oregon brings to the table just doesn't match up well with SEC top tier defensive units. And let's not even discuss the first away game record for the season over the past 10 years for Oregon. They always lose ATS and most of the time straight up in the first game of the season away from home!!!!
Now, on the other hand. The Bulldogs played this team two years ago in Starkville and didn't have the same coach or even half of the offensive, physical style of play then and LSU needed to catch some breaks at the very end to score late and win a close game. Last year, Auburn needed a mistake late and a minor miracle to pull out a three point win in Starkville. This MSU team is even better now!!!
Yes, they lost at Auburn in a shootout last week. Yes, Auburn isn't as good as they were last year. But, MSU overcame some huge plays by Auburn and turnovers on the road against a defending Championship team that still believes they are champs......and got stopped at the one yard line on the last play of the game to keep it from being a tie or a 2 pt conversion win for MSU!!! Side note.....how many of you thought MSU was easy money last week????? I know I am raising my hand!!
If you don't think jacked up home crowds matter in the NCAA, look no further than what happened to ND last week!!!! If it gets close in the last half of the 4th......that crowd gets lathered up and the juices get flowing in the players and shit happens!!!! Those cowbells are gonna be ringing like thunder tonght!!! 
I thought MSU would challenge LSU and Arkansas for a better record than both and knock on the door of a first trip to the SEC Championship Game. I still feel the same way. LSU isn't as good as most people think right now with that pedestrian offense and MSU isn't as average as they have been for so many years with that dangerous offense and rapidly improving defense.
This will be the first true upset of the year. Just one knuckleheads opinion. All that being said......the safe bet by history and trend standards is LSU.......but that's why they call it gambling ya'll!!!
Gift??? No such thing in sports wagering on 18-22 kids.....easy money??? I know I won't quit my day job and try to make a living betting sports or playing poker.....and I'm not bad at either. The fact is here is that -3 is a head scratcher to most of us squares. If you look at where the sharp money and wise guy money goes, you'll probably see that it's being laid on MSU. The number hasn't really moved all week, so it looks like an even book on the game. LSU is coming off a sacrificial lamb slaughter last week. They got every bounce of the ball against Oregon on a neutral field 2 weeks ago and caught injuries to key runners during the middle of that game. Plus, the style of play that Oregon brings to the table just doesn't match up well with SEC top tier defensive units. And let's not even discuss the first away game record for the season over the past 10 years for Oregon. They always lose ATS and most of the time straight up in the first game of the season away from home!!!!
Now, on the other hand. The Bulldogs played this team two years ago in Starkville and didn't have the same coach or even half of the offensive, physical style of play then and LSU needed to catch some breaks at the very end to score late and win a close game. Last year, Auburn needed a mistake late and a minor miracle to pull out a three point win in Starkville. This MSU team is even better now!!!
Yes, they lost at Auburn in a shootout last week. Yes, Auburn isn't as good as they were last year. But, MSU overcame some huge plays by Auburn and turnovers on the road against a defending Championship team that still believes they are champs......and got stopped at the one yard line on the last play of the game to keep it from being a tie or a 2 pt conversion win for MSU!!! Side note.....how many of you thought MSU was easy money last week????? I know I am raising my hand!!
If you don't think jacked up home crowds matter in the NCAA, look no further than what happened to ND last week!!!! If it gets close in the last half of the 4th......that crowd gets lathered up and the juices get flowing in the players and shit happens!!!! Those cowbells are gonna be ringing like thunder tonght!!! I thought MSU would challenge LSU and Arkansas for a better record than both and knock on the door of a first trip to the SEC Championship Game. I still feel the same way. LSU isn't as good as most people think right now with that pedestrian offense and MSU isn't as average as they have been for so many years with that dangerous offense and rapidly improving defense.
This will be the first true upset of the year. Just one knuckleheads opinion. All that being said......the safe bet by history and trend standards is LSU.......but that's why they call it gambling ya'll!!!
Truth...
Nice post.
I'll lay off, thanks.
GL
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Posted:
#84
I know MSU is playing their home opener on prime time vs bitter SEC rival and when a chip on their shoulders.....but for me is hard to bet on them when a couple of important things are not favoring them:
1.- MSU comes form a though game and few days to prepare and rest. Last week was like a bye for LSU.
2.- LSU owns MSU last 10+ games..i saw last game in Starksville, it was raining a lot, LSU won that game 30-24. Yes, LSU needed a last minute goal stand to win the game, but remember that LSU missed an extra point, a 20 yard field goal and gave MSU a touchdown when a bad snap on a punt attempt let to a 1 and goal for MSU with 53 seconds on the first half.
3.- LSU has way better defense (maybe the best in the nation) and way better special teams than MSU. On a close game (this game sure looks like is going to be one), this is critical.
4.- LSU is ranked 3, they are playing for a national champion, and they are on prime time too !
Just my 2 cents...
1.- MSU comes form a though game and few days to prepare and rest. Last week was like a bye for LSU.
2.- LSU owns MSU last 10+ games..i saw last game in Starksville, it was raining a lot, LSU won that game 30-24. Yes, LSU needed a last minute goal stand to win the game, but remember that LSU missed an extra point, a 20 yard field goal and gave MSU a touchdown when a bad snap on a punt attempt let to a 1 and goal for MSU with 53 seconds on the first half.
3.- LSU has way better defense (maybe the best in the nation) and way better special teams than MSU. On a close game (this game sure looks like is going to be one), this is critical.
4.- LSU is ranked 3, they are playing for a national champion, and they are on prime time too !
Just my 2 cents...
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Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by jfratt23:
its all good dude... Like i said i want to bet LSU to stick with the trend, but i;m starting to think that this is Miss states game for the taking.
Here is what i am worried about, the way the line has stuck true with all this action on LSU... I can make a case as well for MSU. I can see MSU dominating on offense in this one. They can move the ball and that is where LSU struggles. if they dont get the defense turnovers that allow for short fields, which i can easily see happening, MSU covers possibly with an outright win.
Good luck Jfratt23 & Bankjob. I hope there's no hard feelings.
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by FoolTime:
Good luck Jfratt23 & Bankjob. I hope there's no hard feelings.
None at all brother.. I'm not sold either direction so it willl be a small play on LSU and a larger play on the under.. been hot in the bases this week so Ill keep my larger plays in MLB.. bottom line is any system is just that nothing is 100% but the public does tend to win on thursday nights... hope it continues this week.. GLTA!1
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Posted:
#93
LSU has the better Defense and probably a few better athletes.
Miss State has the more experienced team and the Home Field Advantage.
Bitter Rivals.
The way I see it: Turnovers will be the key. If you think LSU's Lee minimizes his mistakes, then take LSU. If you think he has 2 or More turnovers, take Miss State.
Either way, this should come down to 1 - 7 points.
I'm thinking 2 - 3 turnovers for LSU.
Small Play Miss State +3.5 Go Cowbells! SHARP
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Posted:
#95
Quote Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:
The books are whispering in your ear...
M-I-S-S-I-S-S-I-P-P-I - - S-T-A-T-E
Will you listen?
Wow, I thought you were against stupid posts that lack information and take up space on the posting board.
You are like a chick changing your mind every minute but I don't mean any disrespect.
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Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by kerussein:
Aren't two starting MSU offensive linemen injured? I usually love the home dog on Thurday night but LSU is for real and MSU D is suspect and O line could be half back ups. I just can't see them pulling this out although I thought the line would have been -6 or 7 too.
Aren't two starting MSU offensive linemen injured? I usually love the home dog on Thurday night but LSU is for real and MSU D is suspect and O line could be half back ups. I just can't see them pulling this out although I thought the line would have been -6 or 7 too.
Maybe....
"Two starting offensive linemen, left tackle James Carmon and Quentin Saulsberry, went down in the Auburn game. Carmon (leg) is questionable for Thursday; Saulsberry (knee) is probable. The line is a major concern against an LSU run defense that is tops in the SEC."
source: https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=246534
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Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by anna31204:
betus has the line at LSU -6 
i really like LSU at 3 but 6 ... come on 
i'll pass for now and see what my bookie has ...
should be a "slobberknocker" of a game ... Coach Dan will have his boyz ready to go ... still think LSU will be to much for them to overcome down the stretch ...
BOL fellas 
anna31204
Where do you see BETUS at -6 on LSU. That is the book I use...and its always been at 3.
ONto the game........Vegas is not dumb. SOMETHING is up....but I cannot pull the trigger on MSU.....gotta go with the better team. Plus....line MIGHT move up closer to gametime.....but if it doesnt....
I might have picked the wrong side.
Final play here......LSU-3 (Betus) 9-13-11
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