Louisiana State at Mississippi State (09/15/2011)

Actually ATS 7-3 L10, Mississippi State 3-2 ATS L5.

Bankjob answered for me... I monitored it last year all year... The public crushed on thursday almost every game. I will admit i am starting to think that miss st will cover this one though. I want to bet with the public like i did last week to continue the trend, but this one scares me.

like i said, i monitored this all last year. Almost every thursday night game is one sided 65%+ on one side. The public crushes on thursday. It is weird. I hate betting with the public, but on thursday its almost a given. I locked in LSU at 3, but the line hasnt moved on covers. I have a bad feeling the books clean up on this game. Im really considering taking miss st +4.5 (on bodog) and hoping it falls on a 4 point victory for LSU so i win both.

Let me start by saying... I can't stand it when people just pull shit out of their ass. We're all guilty of it, whether it be on this site or in our every day lives, but when it is something so unbelievable as "87% of favorites cover on Thursday nights" why would you further exemplify your foolishness or arrogance by pulling more shit out of your ass?  

When you're dealing with statistics, always remember 2 things. 1)Always list your sources. 2) You can't omit or inject certain criteria that helps or doesn't help your case.

Below is every Thursday night game that was on the board for 2010-2011. I used Covers.com (In the scoreboard section of NCAAF) to validate each game. Obviously different books may have different lines, but for this purpose a single source should get the point across. I've bolded the actual covers in "Red" for your review.

Week 1 (09/02)- OHIST (-28), MTENN (-1), SOCAR (-13), IOWST (-4), UAB (-13), UTAH (-3)- P, USC (-20)

Week 2 (09/09)- TEM (-7.5), AUB (-1)

Week 3 (09/16)- NCST (-2)

Week 4 (09/23)- MIAMI (-4)

Week 5 (09/30)- OKLST (-2.5)

Week 6 (10/07)- NEB (-11)

Week 7 (10/14)- WVIRG (-10), KANST (-3) 

Week 8 (10/21)- ORE (-26.5)

Week 9 (10/28)- FSU (-4.5)

Week 10 (11/04)- OHIO (-16), VATCH (-13)

Week 11 (11/11)- PITT (-6), UAB (-1.5)

Week 12 (11/18)- WASH (-2), AIRFC (-18.5)

Week 13 (11/25)- TXAM (-3)

Week 14 (12/02)- ARZ (-4)

For last season (10-11), favorites covered 56% of the time on Thursday nights. Not 87%, or the revised 70% bankjob claims. Bankjob, this isn't a personal attack, so please don't take it that way... I've been on this site for almost 3 years, but I have used this site for almost 6. There was a time that any information you found on this site was as true and as accurate as possible. Claims like bankjob's, although my assumption is most experienced cappers would know this claim is completely inaccurate, could sway rookies or less experienced cappers in making an illadvised play. This site is a helpful site and even when I'm not posting, I live on this site during football season. I just hope everyone gets as much out of it as I.

Bankjob- I checked your numbers, not to throw you under the bus, but for the very slight chance there was something to your claim. I'd be willing to bet (no pun intended) if you could prove to any one of us that 87% of the time we could make a particular play and win, that play would be played week in and week out. Trust me, I watch enough football in 1 season to cover that of an average person's life. I've been in or around football my entire life!! I still haven't found a perfect method. I've come to the realization I will never find a perfect method. Hence the reason I joined this site. This is a place we can all come together no matter what side of the game we're on and share insight. I wish you the best of luck this week and the rest of the season. 

As for the line movement, the line I typically watch opened @ LSU -4, moved to -3.5 yesterday, & is now back @ -4 w/ the majority of the public on LSU. I think watching the lines is a great "part" of capping a game, but it will burn you if that's the only thing you look for. I think every capper has certain things they look for, but it never hurts to have a little luck on your side, as well. With what I've seen from Miss State, they remind me a lot of last years Auburn. They are very physical and can run the ball very well. Chris Relf can put some heat on the ball and as long as his receivers hold on to the ball they will be very successful against these LSU DBs. These are two SEC teams, cut from the same cloth... They recruit from the same area, the players have the same attributes, and are coached to contend in a very physical & fast conference. This is Mississippi State's best chance at beating LSU... When the talent pool is relatively close, give me the team with a chip on their shouders. LSU is coming into Starksville to not get beat. Mississippi State is leaving it all on the field with nothing to lose...

Final Play is still Mississippi State +4 (5 Units)

Good luck to All...

 

 

14/25 is only 56%...

LSU  38-17... maybe not even that close... don't think about it too long.  It's Miss. St. vs LSU.  I agree w/ some of what 2fordamoney says here but I will respectfully disagree w/ that analysis for this game.  I could wind up being a "sucka" though as he stated... we shall see!  Good luck to all of you heading into the weekend!

Thanks for taking time with that FoolTime. We appreciate your time..

I guess we should clarify further though... I dont know bankjob, but i will speak on his behalf when i say this...

 Such as last week and tomorrow night... Our theory applies to thursday night primetime football games, in which it is the only game to bet on, such as tomorrow nights game... You are correct if you add every game, but look at the red highlights in your post when there is only a single College FBALL game to bet on, on thursday night...

i think it is 6-2 if i can add, a little off with my original 87% but ill take 75%, as i didnt spend my time actually looking up the games and calculating, i just remember cuz i took a massive beating betting against the public last year.

I mean obviously if there is 6 games on thursday night we wouldnt expect the public to clean up on all of them. come on

Finally, The reason why i say that above is solely b/c being the only game on tv and on at all tomorrow in CF, it is heavily wagered on. Guess i should have stated all this before you took time to, first, try and put us down with you huge write up, and second, take possibly an hour to do so.

lsu 28 miss16

LSU will be the more physical team in this matchup... And LSU played a good team and crushed them (Oregon)... Auburn (bad team) squeaked by a bad team Miss St. LSU 30, Miss ST 20

so what are you saying here?  which team would you take then

LSU would be favored by 14 neutral and 21 at home. That they are -3.5 is surprising. LSU doesn't lose in regulation but every few years. All the value is on the LSU side win or lose.

Big Thursday night showdown at an angry Mississippi State. The Tigers' defense will be the key to their season. DB Tyrann Mathieu is one of my favorite players in the country. LSU 29 - 24

MISSISSIPPI ST  + 3

If you're wondering why LSU is only favored by -3 to -4 range, take a closer look at the box scores for each teams last two games.  LSU could barely move the ball against Oregon (scored on numerous short fields, five punts, etc.) while Miss St. put up huge yardage in a loss to Auburn (granted, two long drives occurred with Auburn leading by a lot). 

This is Dan Mullen's third year and they have 16 returning starters after showing marked improvement on O and D in 201 relative to the prior year. 

Still, it is Miss St., and as someone said, I just don't see them stepping up yet.

Need to think some more but leaning LSU to cover.

Firstly, Les miles has screwed up stuff happen in his favor. Secondly, you can't seem to cap games for shit. The only thing you bring to the forum is " I don't know, what you guys think?". Miss St' Relf is a pretty good dual threat qb who likes to make plays on the ground. LSU is insanely talented in their defense and will likely force relf to throw against LSU secondary ( also very talented ). LSU's Lee doesn't need to make many big plays; the LSU defense will help LSU get good field position all game. Lee needs to give the ball to his RB's and thrash the bulldog's permeable rush D. What happened to memphis covering 2 weeks ago? Leave rookie.

   According to my records, LSU HC Les Miles during his 6 years had an 8-23-1 record after scoring over 30 points last game. He was 0-4 last year! (all records are ATS)

LSU covers this line, forget the Thursday night jinx.  MSU lost to an average Auburn team in a game they had to win.  LSU defense is too much for this MSU offense, maybe the best D they have had since 2003.  I agree their offense (especially Lee) is questionable, but they will be operating on short fields due to an overwhelming defense.  Time of possession by LSU will wear the Miss St defense down in the 2nd half.

 

LSU to cover, 4X play for me

jfratt23- Typically, when someone is referencing a percentage that isn't fact based to stress a point, it's a multiple of 10 or a multiple of 5. You said 87%, which led me to believe there was some mathematical evidence to support your claim, or that you were pulling a figure out of your ass to give yourself some kind of authority over the subject. I went with the latter, but asked you to please show me what you were claiming, because what capper wouldn't want some insight on a trend so high? 

Like I said above in my previous post... You had my interest! Especially when the other guy jumped in and was supporting your claim with dates, teams, spreads, & results. (Come to find out more than half of those games he listed were not even Thursday night games.) I did some research of my own, like I do in every facet of life, to either confirm or dismiss this new found information. Contrary to what you may think, it didn't take long at all to find the information, as it was here on this very site. It also doesn't take long to type a couple paragraphs. The length came from giving you data to support my rebuttal.

In fact, there are other holes in your theory, as well. Towards the end of the college football season the college football world shares the spotlight with the NFL. So, it isn't the only "Thursday night primetime football game" on tv. In digging a little deeper,

I wasn't trying to put you, or anyone else for that matter, down on a personal level. I was simply poking holes in your 87% claim and even clarified it for you. There is something there... A trend. But, nothing else... Good luck to you again!!

Miss St has the two best players on the field, QB Relf and RB Ballard, I will take the better talent at home plus the points. 

its all good dude... Like i said i want to bet LSU to stick with the trend, but i;m starting to think that this is Miss states game for the taking.

Here is what i am worried about, the way the line has stuck true with all this action on LSU... I can make a case as well for MSU. I can see MSU dominating on offense in this one. They can move the ball and that is where LSU struggles. if they dont get the defense turnovers that allow for short fields, which i can easily see happening, MSU covers possibly with an outright win.

LSU -3

Gift???  No such thing in sports wagering on 18-22 kids.....easy money???  I know I won't quit my day job and try to make a living betting sports or playing poker.....and I'm not bad at either.  The fact is here is that -3 is a head scratcher to most of us squares.  If you look at where the sharp money and wise guy money goes, you'll probably see that it's being laid on MSU.  The number hasn't really moved all week, so it looks like an even book on the game.  LSU is coming off a sacrificial lamb slaughter last week.  They got every bounce of the ball against Oregon on a neutral field 2 weeks ago and caught injuries to key runners during the middle of that game.  Plus, the style of play that Oregon brings to the table just doesn't match up well with SEC top tier defensive units.  And let's not even discuss the first away game record for the season over the past 10 years for Oregon.  They always lose ATS and most of the time straight up in the first game of the season away from home!!!!

Now, on the other hand.  The Bulldogs played this team two years ago in Starkville and didn't have the same coach or even half of the offensive, physical style of play then and LSU needed to catch some breaks at the very end to score late and win a close game.  Last year, Auburn needed a mistake late and a minor miracle to pull out a three point win in Starkville.  This MSU team is even better now!!!

Yes, they lost at Auburn in a shootout last week.  Yes, Auburn isn't as good as they were last year.  But, MSU overcame some huge plays by Auburn and turnovers on the road against a defending Championship team that still believes they are champs......and got stopped at the one yard line on the last play of the game to keep it from being a tie or a 2 pt conversion win for MSU!!!  Side note.....how many of you thought MSU was easy money last week?????  I know I am raising my hand!!   If you don't think jacked up home crowds matter in the NCAA, look no further than what happened to ND last week!!!!  If it gets close in the last half of the 4th......that crowd gets lathered up and the juices get flowing in the players and shit happens!!!!  Those cowbells are gonna be ringing like thunder tonght!!!

I thought MSU would challenge LSU and Arkansas for a better record than both and knock on the door of a first trip to the SEC Championship Game.  I still feel the same way.  LSU isn't as good as most people think right now with that pedestrian offense and MSU isn't as average as they have been for so many years with that dangerous offense and rapidly improving defense. 

This will be the first true upset of the year.  Just one knuckleheads opinion.  All that being said......the safe bet by history and trend standards is LSU.......but that's why they call it gambling ya'll!!!

LSU -3/under 50