WRITE-UP: You know who I am here to post about so let's get on with it: RUTGERS @ WASHINGTON

2016 record: 13-4

We're going Rutgers +26.5.

Why?

1. The line has been teased for us and we didn't spend a dime.

6.5 pt teases are typically -120 juice AND you have to pick another team.

This line opened at -20.5.

After all the algorithms and analysis Vegas runs on to get these numbers, and in the case of a team that is believed to not only challenge for it's conference but sniff at the Final 4 vs. a dog even the public loves to hate, Vegas pads that line in favor of the favorite.

So the -20.5 should really be -19.5 or -18.5. Instead we get 1 or 2 points extra because well....Rutgers.

And now, without injury or sensational storyline or suspension, this line has been driven from 20.5 to a whopping 26.5 .

Simply said, this is a +7/+8 pt premium from the true +18.5/+19.5 line on the Huskies JUST because of public love.

On that alone, I'm compelled to take Rutgers. But there is more.

2. Chris Ash

Love the hire.

He's the ex-Co-D-Coordinator from Ohio State. That is no chopped liver job folks.

I've followed him all offseason. He has come in to change the culture that Kyle Flood pretty much left lifeless.

This team is well-conditioned under Ash. He has been running two-a-day practices in 100 degree heat. In all he had 29 practices in 20 days over a brutal summer.

"So what?" you say?

I say that this team has gone from fun-loving, friendly coach to a taskmaster who demands discipline, something Rutgers was lacking on and off the field last year.

The practices and philosophy are evidence of that. When you bet Michigan, who are you betting first and foremost? Harbaugh. Ash is no Harbaugh, but I believe he's enough to get us within this number and that is all that matters.

He comes in with high expectations and immense pride from a storied program. He will do what he needs to do in practice and game-planning to prevent a massive embarrassment in this game (a 4TD loss and what this spread entails).

This game was on the Rutgers schedule before Ash was even hired. They've had months to game plan for them. And they only need to keep it moderately close for us to win.

3. Should the Huskies give up this much ATS?

Yes, they have many returning starters (So does Rutgers though). Yes they have a rock solid D that will scare you.

But what was this Husky team was also 4-6 last year after 10 games? I was unimpressed. Their O/U last year was 4 games. Now it's 9. That seems like a HUGE jump for one year and lots of questions come with such a jump.

We know the D is good but how about on O? Is anyone going crazy about Jake Browning (16 TD's and 10 INT's last year).

Myles Gaskin is good (1,320 yds and 14 TD's) but what will he be facing on D against Rutgers? I don't see where this whirlwind of scoring comes from to cover this number.

4. Rutgers on D

They have 3 returning seniors and 1 junior on the front lines including co-captains Darius Hamilton and Julius Odrick.

Remember, Chris Ash is a former D-Coordinator and he hand-picked his own D Coordinator as well so he will stress that side of the field. Good for preventing blow-outs, something we need to avoid. They'll be running a new Cover 4 and press man schemes that the Huskies have no tape on (at least no Rutgers tape that is). Will it work?

It only has to work to be just a little under 4 TD's good to have us win this one.

5. Chris Laviano

If Rutgers scores 21 pts, the Huskies need nearly FIFTY points to cover.

Washington has scored 50 twice in 2 years and one was against an FCS team. You'd be hard pressed to tell me they'll drop 50 on a team lead by Ash.

If Rutgers scores 14, the Huskies need about 6 TD's to cover. Where is all this offense coming from?

And why will Rutgers be giving up all these scores? The public clearly thinks it will. But Why?

Laviano can sling it folks. Did anyone see his eye-popping 25 pt comeback against Indiana last year. How about the game where Rutgers almost topped Michigan State?

Laviano also now has a new offense that suits him. There will be spread formations, play-action and some no-huddle to gas what is a very good D. This is right up Laviano's alley and again, if Rutgers can muster a mere 3 TD's with all that action, Washington needs a gargantuan 50.

Look at the Volunteers against Appalachian State. Look at Michigan State vs. FCS team Furman. Both won but didn't even come close to covering because both needed to iron with the kinks in the armor. That happens in week 1 and 2 to the big program when the little guy can surprise you. The little guy with 26.5 in his back pocket here is Rutgers and we are taking them.

3 of the top 4 pass catchers are back from last year. Carroo isn't...but the rest are.

6. Rutgers was a dumpster fire last year and that perception carries over to Week 1 of this year.

But that perception is patently false when applied to this team.

Last year's team had CRIMINAL CHARGES brought against 5 players (several starters) who were subsequently suspended. Who has time to deal with that crap when capping a game or coaching one for that matter!?

They their all-world WR Leonte Carroo (drafted in the third round by the Dolphins) was suspended for a parking lot fight.

This team was severely short-handed and embarrassed in a few games, one with Ash on the other side of the ball when OSU thumped Rutgers.

But OSU, with all the suspensions, and turmoil was giving Rutgers 21.5 points last year at Rutgers. OSU is a perennial national title contender.

Washington... isn't and that as easy to see as the sun rising. Yet with a 6 pt swing for home/road if you do the math, Washington is laying 26.5.

That's essentially what OSU was giving Rutgers on the road with the swing (21 + 6 for the change in venue).

Folks, this year's Huskie team is not equal to last year's OSU team in ATS terms and this Rutgers team has a new vision, coach and coaching staff, confidence, new offense, new defense, returning starters, no suspensions, no major injuries to speak of and, and I can't stress this enough: RUTGERS ONLY NEEDS TO KEEP THIS within 4 TD's!

7. The Psychological Angle

When the head coach of your team starts saying things like this, 26.5 pts is a lot to give:

“There’s always uncertainties with the first game, for sure, because everybody’s going to be a little different,” UW coach Chris Petersen said. “Had a long offseason to work on some things, but then you couple that with a brand-new staff across the board — you’re watching tapes of where they came from, but then they are going to have their own ideas that are tailored to their personnel. So that’s probably the biggest challenge, is a team like this we wish we didn’t have right out of the gate."

Usually statements like that are just lip-service but it seems he slipped with that last sentence.

“Our kids have worked hard, practiced hard. No matter how this game turns out, that just doesn’t matter. … It’s one game and one game at a time and one play at a time — all that corny coaching stuff is true. Rutgers is going to show up here with some guys ready to play football.”

+26.5 pts folks. Feels like one coach on one side of the ball has a lot of expectations to meet and his subconscious is slipping through his lips and is telling us this may not be the game to judge him on. Does that sound like a 4TD bashing?

Things I don't like: I don't like the odd start time of 11am West Coast Time. Crossing the country. I don't like the unreal crowd noise in that stadium.

But when this line was teased for me from opening, I feel I'm being well-compensated for both. Which leads to one pick and one pick only.

Here's to having Ash save face with his new team and having his players conditioned and buying into his vision right out of the gate.

The Pick:

RUTGERS +26.5 OVER WASHINGTON 

This is a new era for Rutgers.

If they stay close and lose, that says a lot for this program. But they can lose by 17/21/24 (which isn't 'close') and we still win.

So essentially, even with what Ash will be trying desperately to do to prove to the AD and the fan base that Rutgers is starting to turn a corner with him at the lead helm, we get a line that gives him a huge margin of error including several backdoor scores/mistakes, and we can still cover.

That is the power of a spread like this. 

Appreciate it guys.

@Biscuit - Rutgers D has improved. It has 4 solid returning seniors on the line. It has Chris Ash. By default, that will improve the defense.

How this line is 26.5 is pretty baffling. Last year's team is not this year's team in mindset or talent. Last year's team wasn't even on the field last year for 1/3 of the season due to robberies and parking lot fights.

And Rutgers STILL went 4-8 (and gave away the Maryland game which would have got them to 5-7).

4-8 for this Rutgers team in the second year with Kyle Flood at the helm, with all that team-based disarray, is pretty good imo. 

Now you have a rejuvenated core with an great HC hire.

And we are getting nearly 4 TD's?

Look at Tennessee. Everyone's darling. Should have dropped the first game at home to Appalachian State! Rutgers will beat AS at home folks and would be favored to do so. Similar thinking leads you to believe the Huskies will not be in 5th gear here to roll Rutgers. How can they be? They don't know what the hell Ash is going to bring on either side of the ball!

@TD - 24 should be fine. I don't cap these games within a point or two. With dogs, if we just wait it out the public will do the work for us spread-wise.

@dave - A shutout would be the fear. I just don't see it happening. Rutgers and Laviano can eat up chunks of yards. The kid can get the ball up and down the field. All I ask is 3 TD's to pretty much seal an ATS win. That's not a lot to ask for with Ash bringing the spread here.

@droy - Yes, Washington does have an 11am bodyclock time start. At least it's not prime time. Just give me a 1pm start please. Washington fans are probably tailgating right now at 6:30 am!