This pretty big deal morphs into a gigantic, monster deal when you consider it’s Nebraska’s inaugural Big Ten game. A fresh start in a new conference that the Huskers are damn proud to be a member of, especially in light of the madness we’ve witnessed these past few weeks.
It’s not hyperbole to call this showdown one of the biggest regular season games in the storied history of Nebraska football. It’s unquestionably one of the most anticipated games in Husker history.
There’s absolutely no doubt it’s the biggest regular season game of the Bo Pelini era. No question. A career defining game for the coach who took over a Nebraska program that was burning, smoldering wreckage at the end of 2007.
Let’s look at Bo Pelini’s record against top-ranked competition.
Bo has a 1-5 record against Top Ten teams as head coach of the Huskers, a 5-7 record against the Top 25 and a 7-5 record during the month of October.
Here’s a quick list of the Top 5 wins of the Bo Pelini era. You might debate the order of this list. But since 2008, there aren’t any wins of greater magnitude than these five:
Top 5 wins of the Bo Pelini era
- Nebraska defeats #7 Missouri, 31-17, in 2010
- Nebraska defeats #17 Oklahoma State, 51-41, in 2010
- Nebraska defeats #20 Oklahoma, 10-3, in 2009
- Nebraska defeats #22 Arizona, 33-0, in 2009 Holiday Bowl
- Nebraska defeats #24 Missouri, 27-12, in 2009
In most of the truly big games of the Bo Pelini era, Nebraska has come up short.
We’ve had two heartbreaking losses in consecutive Big 12 Championship games to the Sooners and that school down south. Endured a pair of pummelings during Bo’s first year at the hands of #4 Missouri (52-17) and #4 Oklahoma (62-28). Witnessed a narrow 16-15 defeat in Blacksburg by the #13 Virgina Tech Hokies in September 2009. And suffered through a painful, penalty-fueled 9-6 diabolical debacle at #18 Texas A&M last season.
Any other big games we could mention? No, that’s pretty much a definitive list of the top five victories, a couple wins that merit honorable mention, and a quick rundown of the painful ‘big ones’ that Nebraska lost.
Let there be no doubt. This is the defining moment of Bo Pelini’s head coaching career. After 46 career games under his belt at Nebraska, the question must be asked: Can Bo win the big one?
We’ll get an answer to that question on Saturday night. The pressure is on, the stakes are huge and America will be watching.
It will be a daunting challenge for Nebraska to emerge with a win from Camp Randall Stadium. You may have heard that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have already established Big Red (Big Black?) as nine point underdogs to the Badgers. And the point spread might rise to double digits before kickoff.
Consider these facts:
- Wisconsin has won 12 straight home games at Camp Randall Stadium.
- Wisconsin has won their last 7 regular-season games by an average of 44.4 points.
- The Badgers have won their last 11 regular-season games
- Wisconsin is 40-1 under Bret Bielema when scoring at least 30 points in a game
You can’t ignore those double-digit winning streaks or the 44+ point margin of victory.
When I look at this game, there’s one statistic of paramount importance. The key stat that will determine the outcome of this titanic showdown is Turnover Margin. And that’s exactly what scares me about this game.
In all four of Nebraska’s losses last year, the Huskers lost the turnover battle: Texas (-1), Texas A&M (-2), Oklahoma (-3), and Washington (-2)
Now consider these frightening stats:
- In 2010, the Cornhuskers had 45 fumbles, the most in the nation (by eight fumbles)
- During this young 2011 season, the only NCAA team with more fumbles than Nebraska (13) is South Carolina (14 fumbles).
- Wisconsin is the only team in America that hasn’t fumbled yet this season.
- The Badgers rank 1st in the nation in least number of fumbles. Meanwhile, Nebraska ranks 118th in nation with 13 fumbles. That’s a shocking disparity.
- Nebraska fumbled the ball more in September (13 times) than Wisconsin has all of 2010 and 2011 combined (12 times in 17 games)
Folks, we’re talking about 58 fumbles by Nebraska over past 18 games. And the Badgers have just 12 fumbles over the past 17 games.
From the start of 2010 through right now, Wisconsin is the best in the nation and Nebraska ranks dead last out of 120 FBS teams in holding onto the football. That is shocking, disturbing and makes you wonder if the Nebraska (+9) point spread is maybe a bit conservative.
It’s not just the fumbles that give cause for concern. Wisconsin is well-coached, well-disciplined and just a helluva good football team across the board.
Wisconsin has allowed only 34 total points in four games this season. Nebraska allowed 38 points in one game against Washington.
Wisconsin has a leading Heisman contender in quarterback Russell Wilson, who ranks second in the country in passing efficiency. Wilson has completed 69 of his 91 passes for 11 touchdowns and 1,136 yards this season. Combine those numbers with his stats at North Carolina State, and you’ll see Wilson has had a truly stellar college career. He’s thrown for an incredible 87 touchdowns and rushed for another 17 TD’s.
Bret Bielema’s Badgers lead the Big Ten Conference in several statistical categories. The numbers don’t lie. This is an incredibly well balanced team.
Wisconsin ranks first in the Big Ten in Scoring Offense, Passing Offense, Total Offense, Scoring Defense and Pass Efficiency Defense.
The Badgers are nationally ranked in many of these same categories. Out of 120 FBS teams, Wisconsin ranks 13th overall in rushing offense and 26th in passing offense. Wisky ranks 3rd in Scoring Defense and 6th in Scoring Offense. They’re 7th in Total Defense and 8th in Total Offense.
It’s easy to see why many experts think the Badgers will play an SEC team for all the marbles in New Orleans this January. The only weakness I can find on this Wisconsin team is in kickoff returns. The Badgers only rank 75th in the FBS in kickoff returns… but they haven’t had much practice returning kicks, because they don’t let their opponents score many points.
It’s going to be a tall order for the Huskers to win in Madison on Saturday night.
It’s going to take the best effort of the Bo Pelini era, against the most formidable opponent Nebraska has faced in years.
Can they do it? Or will we see something similar to last year, when the Ohio State Buckeyes went to Madison undefeated and found themselves down 21-0 to Bucky before they blinked an eye?
BY DEREK WILLIAMS | Huskers Gameday Co-Founder
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