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Win or Lose BGSU is a Bad Bet Tonight

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:


Your from ohio.  

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I am a hockey player, also wanted to play for Red Berenson 
 
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Posted: #52
sorry meant to say always 
 
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Posted: #53
lol@ Joey public..... Everyone keep taking BG .....
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by rhodeislandreds:



One other thing. You're using a game in the early portion of the season as a guide for a game being played in December. That's ridiculous. BGU has greatly improved since the start of the year. Pitt has pretty much stayed at the same level.

One more. 6-6 in the ACC and 6-6 in the SEC aren't the same thing.

Ok, you want to look at the Boise State v Oregon State game? Almost identical situation has tonight.... Oregon State favored by 3, so shouldn't Pitt be in a similar situation? 
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:

Math wasn't a strong suit for any of you was it?


The whole premise of your "system" and "research" here is that both of these teams are 6-6 and that is why it is fair to compare Pitt to Miss St?  I think your logic is a bit simplistic here.  I think the SEC was down this year but you wouldn't know it the way ESPN kisses the SEC's a$$. 
 
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Posted: #56
It's Pittsburgh that Bowling Green are playing tonight, not Alabama. The Panthers are a pathetic team that doesn't deserve to even play in a Bowl game. It's no big secret that Pitt can't run the ball. Stuff the box early, and blitz blitz blitz late. I have no idea why you attempted to use the Mississippi St game for some weird and twisted analogy. Pitt doesn't belong on the same field as Miss St. Knock Bowling Green all you want, they are a much better team then Pittsburgh. 

The line makes perfect sense to me. 

Bowling Green it is 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Buckeye67:

Interesting philosophy, but could it be as simple as BG being just a better team rather than just public opinion. I watch a a lot of college football and BG is solid and Pitt is not very good. I watched the te not loss to a bad Miami team and 11 pt loss to GT. BG is way better and line dictates it.
Not so fast on that one. 

Pitt has played the tougher schedule... and has been been competitive in a lot of their games. ACC is levels ahead of MAC. I do like what I've seen from BG but I'm not so eager to jump on them especially after they lost their coach.
 
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Posted: #58
Appreciate how the concept of a bad bet can blow most of the BG backer's minds. Fade the public
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Swervee:



The whole premise of your "system" and "research" here is that both of these teams are 6-6 and that is why it is fair to compare Pitt to Miss St?  I think your logic is a bit simplistic here.  I think the SEC was down this year but you wouldn't know it the way ESPN kisses the SEC's a$$. 

No the whole premise is that when you take similair teams to Pitt on BG's schedule this season you can see very clearly that you are paying a substantial premium to bet on BG today because of their win over NIU.

Indiana and Mississippi State are two teams that BG played that is similair to Pitt, BG was +11.5 @ MSU and +3 @ IND taking off 3-4 points for home-field advantage and you can see that on a neutral field BG would have been a 7.5 underdog to MSU and a -1 point favorite to IND. Records etc. could argue that Pitt should be somewhere in between thus laying -6.5 tonight with BGSU is a terrible bet. 

Now that doesn't mean the bet won't win it just means it is a bad bet.  

Maybe this will help most of you better understand, I will put it in terms of ML betting:

Two completely even teams have a 50/50 chance at betting one another. The bookie sets the line at -110 on each side. At -110 it is implied that BG should win 52.38% of the time. You are paying a 2.38% premium to the bookie for taking the action and paying you if you win. 

Go to todays game at best (based on the Indiana game, and could easily be argued that it should be more like Pitt has a small to medium favorite) Bowling Green should be a -1 point favorite. Which would infer a line of -120 which implies BG should win the game 54.55% of the time. Instead of laying -120 with a 54.55% implied chance of winning you are laying -220 with a 68.75% implied chance of winning.

Bottom line previous spreads have shown you that the line on this game should probably be closer to Pitt -3 or a pickem and instead of putting up 110 to win 100 you are putting up 220 to win 100. 



 
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Posted: #60
Your taking on extra risk and laying more than you should have to because of BG's win over NIU and the public perception that Pitt is garbage. 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by divotdo:

Appreciate how the concept of a bad bet can blow most of the BG backer's minds. Fade the public

Based on this very indepth response, it's obvious why this is your first post. 

Brilliant ! 
 
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Posted: #62
Hutch is spot on...would you guys rather be right from an awful writeup or wrong from a great writeup? Pretty simple reasoning to me....
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:


No the whole premise is that when you take similair teams to Pitt on BG's schedule this season you can see very clearly that you are paying a substantial premium to bet on BG today because of their win over NIU.

Indiana and Mississippi State are two teams that BG played that is similair to Pitt, BG was +11.5 @ MSU and +3 @ IND taking off 3-4 points for home-field advantage and you can see that on a neutral field BG would have been a 7.5 underdog to MSU and a -1 point favorite to IND. Records etc. could argue that Pitt should be somewhere in between thus laying -6.5 tonight with BGSU is a terrible bet. 

Now that doesn't mean the bet won't win it just means it is a bad bet.  

Maybe this will help most of you better understand, I will put it in terms of ML betting:

Two completely even teams have a 50/50 chance at betting one another. The bookie sets the line at -110 on each side. At -110 it is implied that BG should win 52.38% of the time. You are paying a 2.38% premium to the bookie for taking the action and paying you if you win. 

Go to todays game at best (based on the Indiana game, and could easily be argued that it should be more like Pitt has a small to medium favorite) Bowling Green should be a -1 point favorite. Which would infer a line of -120 which implies BG should win the game 54.55% of the time. Instead of laying -120 with a 54.55% implied chance of winning you are laying -220 with a 68.75% implied chance of winning.

Bottom line previous spreads have shown you that the line on this game should probably be closer to Pitt -3 or a pickem and instead of putting up 110 to win 100 you are putting up 220 to win 100. 




Again,   You isolate two games that Bowling Green played months ago.  I believe its safe to say that BG wouldn't be an 11.5 pt underdog if they played Miss St today. Since that loss, they are 5 and 1, and have picked up the pace on defence and offense as well? During that same period of time Pitt are 2 and 6. The line is established in an effort to create wagering on both sides ( in theory ), yet the action continues to favor BG. " Pitt should be favoured by 3 " makes absolutely no sense to me. I've watched that pathetic team, and other then an impressive defense that gets exhausted by the 4th quarter, they are brutal. 
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:

Your taking on extra risk and laying more than you should have to because of BG's win over NIU and the public perception that Pitt is garbage. 

And that's why we call it gambling my friend! In my own opinion I feel this line is a little off due to public perception but I do feel BG is the better team and should win this game by about 4 points
 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by mistak76:

Who cares this is a garbage game.

its the $5 hot n ready little caesars bowl what would you expect but garbage sponsored by garbage?

Oscar The Grouch should to the pregame coin flip!!

 
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Posted: #66
I think Sean2114's main point is that the public remembers the last thing they saw and overvalue that. The last thing people saw was BG dominate NIL.  I took this into consideration when I bet BG -4.5 but it is a good point.


 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by franz555:


Again,   You isolate two games that Bowling Green played months ago.  I believe its safe to say that BG wouldn't be an 11.5 pt underdog if they played Miss St today. Since that loss, they are 5 and 1, and have picked up the pace on defence and offense as well? During that same period of time Pitt are 2 and 6. The line is established in an effort to create wagering on both sides ( in theory ), yet the action continues to favor BG. " Pitt should be favoured by 3 " makes absolutely no sense to me. I've watched that pathetic team, and other then an impressive defense that gets exhausted by the 4th quarter, they are brutal. 

 

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:


Your from ohio.  

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Hey mrquija27, you're the dumbazz who thought that snow would have an effect on the Lions/Ravens MNF game when they play indoors! 

You have a Lions avatar and didn't know that!  You'll NEVER live that down you dumbfuk. 
Let's go Darwin
 
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Posted: #69
lots of peeps on the birdie site who know their sh*t like the Pitt and the points, prefer the over myself.
 
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Posted: #70
No one is even talking about Bowling Green having an interim coach tonight. I think it's a bigger deal than most people do, I guess.
 
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Posted: #71
in reality, with my own two eyes, I saw Bowling Green play extremely well on more than one occasion this year.

no public perception, just my own eyes
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by franz555:


Again,   You isolate two games that Bowling Green played months ago.  I believe its safe to say that BG wouldn't be an 11.5 pt underdog if they played Miss St today. Since that loss, they are 5 and 1, and have picked up the pace on defence and offense as well? During that same period of time Pitt are 2 and 6. The line is established in an effort to create wagering on both sides ( in theory ), yet the action continues to favor BG. " Pitt should be favoured by 3 " makes absolutely no sense to me. I've watched that pathetic team, and other then an impressive defense that gets exhausted by the 4th quarter, they are brutal. 

Again your isolating the last few games against far inferior opponents to anything Pitt has played this year. 

Since you like dealing in recent history so much what is the difference between this game and the Boise State v Oregon State game where the 6-6 AQ school was laying 3 to the 8-4 Mid Major School. So OSU was laying three to the 2nd best team in the MWC (which I think could easily be argued is much better than the MAC) and now in this game you are being asked to lay -6 to the 6-6 AQ school when just two days ago in a similar situation as BG you would have gotten 3 instead of laying 6.

If BG hadn't beaten NIU what would the spread be for a bowl game between these two? I would almost guarantee Pitt would have been a small to medium favorite. Because BG won on national television against NIU you are paying a premium for that in this game.  
 
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Posted: #73
Actually, math is my strong suit. That has little to do with how betting lines are set. 
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That's another discussion.  But math has TONS to do with how you evaluate lines AFTER they are set.  
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

in reality, with my own two eyes, I saw Bowling Green play extremely well on more than one occasion this year.

no public perception, just my own eyes

How did they look against a 5-7 Indiana team? How did they look against a 6-6 Mississippi State team? Those two teams are the most comparable to Pitt. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

Actually, math is my strong suit. That has little to do with how betting lines are set. 
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That's another discussion.  But math has TONS to do with how you evaluate lines AFTER they are set.  

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