All Forums | College Football

Win or Lose BGSU is a Bad Bet Tonight

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 5973
Posts: 84
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2004
Posts: 38704
Posted: #26
Should be getting points according to who? You? Who are you? LOL 

____________________

I'm not saying I agree with this, but it is his OPINION.  That's what sports wagering is all about.  If you disagree with a line, then you attempt to take advantage.  Doesn't mean you are always right, but if you think a line is off, you're OBLIGATED to bet it.  It's really that simple.  
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 11688
Posted: #27
Arosa - the comparison of team records was between Mississippi State and Pittsburgh, I thought that was clearly but it may not have been. 

LETSGOPACK - You are letting perception dictate your opinion on this game, perception and reality are not always the same.
 
weimar - Bingo, and I don't think that BG has a bad line here, I laid out the proof that it is a bad line. 

bikemcr - I am not sure what to say to you other than please re read the first sentence on the first point where I clearly stated that BG was an 11.5 point underdog

and for the rest of the beginners suggesting i should just take Pitt, you are missing the point. I am not saying that I like Pitt to win, I am saying that previous lines this year are dictating that you are betting into a bad line if you take BG. That doesn't mean it woulnd't win but what it does mean is that you are giving points would you should be recieveing them because of the perception that Pitt (who like MSU was 6-6) isn't that good. Yet the bookies already showed you that against a middle of the road AQ school on a neutral field the Falcons would be a 7.5 point underdog 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 11688
Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Not_a_Gambler:



Should be getting points according to who? You? Who are you? LOL

The line is what it is period. If it's so off according to your expert opinion then play Pitt.



I think previous lines have indicated that they should be getting points and not giving.... please if you can brings facts or a counterpoint please share it because right now all I am hearing is a 4 year old crying saying your wrong with no reasons or facts as to why. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 557
Posted: #29
What needs to be looked at is the true pass/rush off. and def. with SOS adjustments.  The way I look at it, Pitt will lose and rather badly if you can run on them.  Take at look at what VT and GT have done.  Even Notre Dame should not of lost, but they did have 3 TO.  BG is a decent team, but if you take a look at their victories, their main win was NIU in which they stopped the run, ie Jordan Lynch.  Other than that their next best quality win was Buffalo.  Even though their Pass D is good, their run D not that good, giving up 141 yds per game.  Of course, neither is Pitt's.  It is too bad that Pitt is not the best rushing team, but the SOS shows that BG could win by up to 7pts.  This is also what the Sagarin index is predicting and what my numbers show barring any pts off of turnovers.  The line is pretty accurate at -6.5, but I would wait or buy to +7 or +7.5 for Pitt.  
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1397
Posted: #30
BG plays jr. college football...while Pitt plays pro-draft football opp. 

MAC schools stay in MAC division....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 1926
Posted: #31
I have read a few articles on Pitt and they are extremely excited about being in a different bowl game than Birmingham and they are extremely excited for the chance to be 7-6 rather than 6-7. The fact is that they do actually care about being there. That alone is enough for me to stay away from BG. Pitt has played a much tougher schedule and has seen a few opponents that would whip BG so they won't be caught off guard or anything like that. Statistically BG is a no brainer.  I can't find anything about their mental state though. Maybe the MAC Championship was their climatic moment. If so, Pitt covers.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 738
Posted: #32
[Quote: Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234]

Have you watched Pitt play this year and not just looked at the results?

 

They dont even belong in a bowl game....they very, very easily could have been 3-9 or 2-10 this year....they are not a good team at all

Bg wins this game very easily

They could also have a winning record. Other than FSU and Miami every other game has gone into 4th with Pitt having a chance to win or extend the game. If you look at BG results you'll see their best win out of conference was Tulsa(who was under 500 this year). They fattened their record on MAC schools and slieghed the giant of the conference.    

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 6409
Posted: #33
Sagarin Predictor Numbers:

Pitt 71.15
BGSU 80.81

That puts BGSU as an approximate 9.5 favorite.  Not sure what numbers you're looking at to make your assumptions.  But it appears to me that Pitt bettors are "paying a premium" here.

Lots of momentum behind BGSU, as well.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 283
Posted: #34
I am not sure if the line for BG vs. Pitt is a good or bad, but perhaps the bad line was Miss St being favored by 11.5 over BG...BG easily covered that line...at that time, it's possible the oddsmakers undervalued BG and overvalued Miss St and since have adjusted accordingly...based on October lines, Miss St would possibly be favored by 12.5 over Pitt on a neutral filed, but there is no basis to say that would be the line today...your analysis mainly factors in that line from October and nothing else...to say it is a bad line based on that is too simple of an analysis...however, I do agree you are paying a premium for betting BG based on them beating N. Illinois
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2013
Posts: 11
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:


I think previous lines have indicated that they should be getting points and not giving.... please if you can brings facts or a counterpoint please share it because right now all I am hearing is a 4 year old crying saying your wrong with no reasons or facts as to why. 

I'm just wondering what you are trying to get out of your post if you are not going to wager on Pittt. If you think your breakdown of this game is so precise and there are no facts to prove otherwise then put your money where your mouth is and play it. Stand by your analysis and take the points. Other than that, have fun breaking games down that you won't even be playing on. 


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 377
Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:

Math wasn't a strong suit for any of you was it?


Actually, math is my strong suit. That has little to do with how betting lines are set.

Bowling Green power rates as the favorite over Pitt on a neutral field. You can also tab this as what amounts to a home/neutral for Bowling Green, which was factored into the number.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 377
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:

Arosa - the comparison of team records was between Mississippi State and Pittsburgh, I thought that was clearly but it may not have been. 

LETSGOPACK - You are letting perception dictate your opinion on this game, perception and reality are not always the same.
 
weimar - Bingo, and I don't think that BG has a bad line here, I laid out the proof that it is a bad line. 

bikemcr - I am not sure what to say to you other than please re read the first sentence on the first point where I clearly stated that BG was an 11.5 point underdog

and for the rest of the beginners suggesting i should just take Pitt, you are missing the point. I am not saying that I like Pitt to win, I am saying that previous lines this year are dictating that you are betting into a bad line if you take BG. That doesn't mean it woulnd't win but what it does mean is that you are giving points would you should be recieveing them because of the perception that Pitt (who like MSU was 6-6) isn't that good. Yet the bookies already showed you that against a middle of the road AQ school on a neutral field the Falcons would be a 7.5 point underdog 


One other thing. You're using a game in the early portion of the season as a guide for a game being played in December. That's ridiculous. BGU has greatly improved since the start of the year. Pitt has pretty much stayed at the same level.

One more. 6-6 in the ACC and 6-6 in the SEC aren't the same thing.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 12636
Posted: #38
Pitt was also -4.5 at Duke earlier in the season.  One could spin that the same way to say you're now getting great value on Pitt.  Pitt's the play not b/c of any of this but b/c BG's coach has moved on to Wake.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 23414
Posted: #39
One thing that swayed me to Pitt was a Bowling Green getting blown out by Indiana. They only scored 10 pts against a horrific defense.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 28
Posted: #40
Interesting philosophy, but could it be as simple as BG being just a better team rather than just public opinion. I watch a a lot of college football and BG is solid and Pitt is not very good. I watched the te not loss to a bad Miami team and 11 pt loss to GT. BG is way better and line dictates it.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 11059
Posted: #41
pitt + points
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 1864
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

Should be getting points according to who? You? Who are you? LOL 

____________________

I'm not saying I agree with this, but it is his OPINION.  That's what sports wagering is all about.  If you disagree with a line, then you attempt to take advantage.  Doesn't mean you are always right, but if you think a line is off, you're OBLIGATED to bet it.  It's really that simple.  

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 1864
Posted: #43
I havet watched a single college football game, but when all signs point to BGSU winning this game easily, but yet they only opened as -4.5?  Im using the fade the obv play angle here and really like Pitt +6.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 2723
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Rana828:

I havet watched a single college football game, but when all signs point to BGSU winning this game easily, but yet they only opened as -4.5?  Im using the fade the obv play angle here and really like Pitt +6.
u shouldn't bet a sport u never seen befor lol college is alot diffrent from the pros .. Fading isnt nearly as affective as it is in ths nfl trust.me 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 2348
Posted: #45
Where do you think the line should be then if Its A bad Line? If you made Pitt the fav then you would still have the same debate. Just made by other people. And if Pitt was favored the Public would bet the line down anyway.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 1257
Posted: #46
My .02

Savage has no run game.  He will not win this game by self. That will be the difference in this game if it's close.  I think BG has the better quarterback and the yards/1st downs he gets running will be the difference.  Defenses, athletes, coaching = / < BG.   If BG's running back shows up (as he has all year) then this will be over by the end of the 3rd and pitt fans will be demanding that the coach is fired.

BG -6.5 (+105)
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 11688
Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Beningo88:

One thing that swayed me to Pitt was a Bowling Green getting blown out by Indiana. They only scored 10 pts against a horrific defense.

another good example..... So BGSU was a +3 @ Indiana (a 5-7 non bowl eligible team) take away 4 points for home-field and BG would be -1 v Indiana on a neutral field.... So if you bet BG tonight you are laying 5 or 6 points on a neutral field when previously lines are telling you that you would only lay -1 against a weaker Indiana squad. 

I think you have two past lines that would tell you at best this game should be a pick em. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 3117
Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by sean2114:

Earlier this season Bowling Green went to Mississippi State and was an 11.5 point underdog (save me your SEC is 10 times the conference the ACC is blah blah blah). Take away 4 points for home-field and on a neutral site the Bulldogs would be a 7.5 point favorite over Bowling Green. So now because they won the MAC and blew-out the conference BCS Busting darlings you are going to pay a premium and give 5 points on a neutral site with this team. This line is completely reversed, you should have to lay 4 to 5 points with Pittsburgh not the other way around. 

According to these lines on a neutral site Mississippi State would be a -12.5 favorite over Pittsburgh!!! These are two 6-6 teams out of major conferences, the gap is not that big!!!

Win or Lose tonight just understand in Bowling Green you are paying a large premium because of public perception that NIU was BCS bound. Bowling Green should be getting points not laying them IMHO. 

Your from ohio.  

Avatar
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 31830
Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


WRONG.  Let's say BG wins by 20 tonight.  Would you lay 19 in a bet right now?  Of course not because it's a BAD BET.

You make a decision on whether a bet is a good one BEFORE the event.  

Laying -300 for Denver to win the SB right now?  Good or bad bet? BAD BET.  Even if they go on to win the SB, it was still a bad bet.

This concept is so simple even I can understand it.  And I'm not that smart.  

Now I'm not saying BG is a good or a bad bet, but for anyone who says any winning bet is a good bet is a complete moron.  

 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 11688
Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Not_a_Gambler:


I'm just wondering what you are trying to get out of your post if you are not going to wager on Pittt. If you think your breakdown of this game is so precise and there are no facts to prove otherwise then put your money where your mouth is and play it. Stand by your analysis and take the points. Other than that, have fun breaking games down that you won't even be playing on. 



just trying to help the beginners (much like yourself) on how to breakdown games so that you don't lose your behind doing this. 

people get to set on perception and don't focus on reality, take Christmas Eve for example, to many people were focusing on the 5 straight losses of Oregon State and the fact that they sucked and couldn't play defense, etc. the reality was the Boise coached bailed and these non AQ schools don't play anywhere close to the same schedule. 
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.