Posted:
#26
@NutinButtLove
Lol
1
Why Washington getting 9.5 Points? Huskies already beat Ducks.
Posted:
#28
Been saying it all along...Oregon needs to win big or convincing...IF Bama Beats Georgia...both Bama and Georgia are in...If Texas wins and wins BIG....They might leap frog Oregon with Bama winning as they will have the beaten Bama on the road the SEC Champion.....Oregon won't know any of this as they play Friday..So they best win and win big if possible..
Mayweather bet 450000 on
0
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by Nabooru:
Washington has already defeated Oregon. #3 Washington vs #5 Oregon on a neutral field, This is the most important game of the year for Washington, win and your in playoffs. Anyone know something I don't? 9 points is too many for 3rd best in the nation.
Washington has already defeated Oregon. #3 Washington vs #5 Oregon on a neutral field, This is the most important game of the year for Washington, win and your in playoffs. Anyone know something I don't? 9 points is too many for 3rd best in the nation.
With all due respect, I may know something you dont. Lets look at both teams from a pure points perspective, a pure points perspective in both clubs last 3-4 road performances. Keep the home game or whatever these two clubs have done at home or in September at the door, because thats all irelevant and means nothing.
Recent form is key, recent road form is the expanded key that will will unlock the winner of this matchup straight up and against the number. This is the key that you should be paying attention to. When I use the term "recent form", I'm referring to the most recent road performance / statistics of both clubs using a pure points mathematical model.
A pure points mathematical model is a model of eliminating all the noise from the recent road offensive and defensive points for (PF) and points against( PA) which is a painstaking process through the art of reading play by play and eliminating the points scored off turnovers, the points scored on a defense that wasn't on the field while the points were being scored ie Interception back for TD, punt returns for a TD, fumble recovery back for TD's, including Team A fumbles ..Team B recovers not to the endzone but a drive that ends in a score. Big difference than them recovering a fumble and running it to the EZ for a score. In this instance, the offense has the opportunity to score off the fumble which should be taken off that teams final offensive score. They didn't score the points on their own..they were gifted the points from the other team and should not be awarded that score. Just as an Int / KO /PR for a TD. You cant charge the defense with any of those scores, because they were not on the field at the time of the score and with a special teams TD the offense wasn't on the field either so you cant award them with the score as well. Very complicated.
Now once we have all this configured ie the recent 3-4 game true pure point offensive and defensive road performances, then you have what we call a " True Raw " compilation of what both clubs true offense and defense really is. .not what you see in the final score on the scoreboard. True / Raw Pure fucking Points to a T. That's the key. more on this matchup later
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
4
Posted:
#30
@Nabooru
Does it look like a trap line? Yep. Is Vegas begging you to bet on Washington? Yep. Do I think Oregon is a better squad at this time of the season? Yep. But who knows...If you like #3 Wahington +9.5 to +11 can compete with Oregon, then bet it and sprinkle a little on the money line.
As for @NutinButtLove, that is what you call A Classic Know-It-Fkn Clown. 
BOL
0
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by jefff:
Washington of late has not played as dominantly. Barely getting past teams and winning "at the buzzer". Mostly at home too. Oregon, OTOH, has been dominating everyone handily. Oregon had some bad fortune at Washington with lots of failing on 4th down. Had they converted one or two, this line would make sense. I like the under here. Wash offense has been weaker of late and Oregon defense is solid. Important game too and I dont thnk it would be played as wide open as the first matchup
Washington of late has not played as dominantly. Barely getting past teams and winning "at the buzzer". Mostly at home too. Oregon, OTOH, has been dominating everyone handily. Oregon had some bad fortune at Washington with lots of failing on 4th down. Had they converted one or two, this line would make sense. I like the under here. Wash offense has been weaker of late and Oregon defense is solid. Important game too and I dont thnk it would be played as wide open as the first matchup
Wash defense on the road last 4 gave up 20 to Oreg St / 42 to USC / and 33 to Stanford / and 24 to Arizona ( Average road defense last 4..( 28 )
Ducks "D" on the road last 4 gave up 13 to Ari St / 6 to Utah/ 36 to Wash / and 6 to Stanford the only common opponent w/ Wash (Average road defense last 4 (9.5 )
When we tighten it up using last 3 road games most recent form. Washing is at 33 avearge, Ducks 13 average
Your point is well taken that Oregon defense is solid and according to my numbers I agree..and Washingtons defense is not solid and if the objective is to get into the endzone to score points..Oregon will have an easier time doing that with their offense than Washington will be able to do to Oregon with thiers
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Posted:
#36
@SURFSUP
NUTTINBUTTLOVE might be nasty in terms of thinking he is a sharp bettor BUT that doesn’t mean he isn’t correct. The public is pounding Washington and the spread keeps going in Oregons favor…from 7 to 9.5!
I have a Washington Futures ticket and love Washington BUT I’m forced into taking them with the points to try to salvage this. Everything says Oregon wins this game big and NUTTINBUTTLOVE is correct in terms of being on the “sharp side” of the action.
That’s what he isn’t willing to explain to you. The fact that he thinks explaining it to a “public bettor” like you will change how the lines move is humorous though.
0
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by ToneKapone13:
@Wizerguy Where did you copy paste this from?
@Wizerguy Where did you copy paste this from?
I didn't copy and paste it from anywhere. You're just to green to know what I'm even talking about. You never even heard of any of this stuff because your Football IQ is Zero.
If you think I copied and pasted it, do some research ass-wipe and find out where, then come back and see me and copy and paste it here______ or come see me in my NFL thread and you will learn how to properly handicap games, instead of properly being a prospect troll with no posting of plays , no YTD record or units won or lost. Now go to cooking website and get lost punk because you don't contribute anything whatsoever to this site since you been here
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by ToneKapone13: @Wizerguy Where did you copy paste this from? I didn't copy and paste it from anywhere. You're just to green to know what I'm even talking about. You never even heard of any of this stuff because your Football IQ is Zero. If you think I copied and pasted it, do some research ass-wipe and find out where, then come back and see me and copy and paste it here______ or come see me in my NFL thread and you will learn how to properly handicap games, instead of properly being a prospect troll with no posting of plays , no YTD record or units won or lost. Now go to cooking website and get lost punk because you don't contribute anything whatsoever to this site since you been here
Quote Originally Posted by ToneKapone13: @Wizerguy Where did you copy paste this from? I didn't copy and paste it from anywhere. You're just to green to know what I'm even talking about. You never even heard of any of this stuff because your Football IQ is Zero. If you think I copied and pasted it, do some research ass-wipe and find out where, then come back and see me and copy and paste it here______ or come see me in my NFL thread and you will learn how to properly handicap games, instead of properly being a prospect troll with no posting of plays , no YTD record or units won or lost. Now go to cooking website and get lost punk because you don't contribute anything whatsoever to this site since you been here
It must be that time of the year again. Get em Cuz 
Wizer 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Posted:
#48
@SPark1
Although that trend favors WASH to win straight up, I bet those previous championship game spreads were not near this big!
If it was close like under 7, I'd say that trend favors WASH, but otherwise being that big of dawg, I see ORE winning. Will ORE cover or not, is the bigger question.
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