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Week 9 Plays

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Legend
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Posted: #26
gl
 
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Posted: #27

gl this week JFEN... riding georgia and duskyU as well. I'm a philadelphiA local as well, followed you heavily in NCAAB last year... cant wait for this year esp since i cant seem to make consistent $$ in football this fall... sucks but the hardwood will be here soon enough to build me back up. lets get the $$       

 
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Posted: #28

Hi Jfen!

 

Your "Gun to head" picks have been pretty good latley lol. What do you think about tonights game?


Thanks

 
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Posted: #29
Hey bud game you may want to take look at is Texas st vs sjst with Texas st getting 20 got that feeling for a nice cover
 
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Posted: #30
I also find the UNC/NCSU game intriguing. On one hand, I think NC State is a fraud. On the other hand, if there's one thing they always seem to do, it's beat North Carolina. 
 
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Posted: #31
Jfen respect your plays but I have Toledo -7.5 as a lean feel like Toledo is pretty decent mid major and buffalo stinks. Is this pick due to conference home game? I was thinking about teasing Toledo down.
 
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Posted: #32
Minnesota +3.5 (1 unit)
Lousy spot for Purdue choking away a 4th quarter lead in Columbus last weekend and I don't think they get off the bus in Minneapolis. The Gophers' freshman QB Nelson acquitted himself relatively well in a tough road atmosphere at Camp Randall and Minnesota is just two wins away from bowl eligibility - the stated goal heading into the season.

 
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Posted: #33
Miniman - Agree but I'm trying to be extremely selective this week.

Rambo- Major letdown opportunity for Toledo after beating previously unbeaten and ranked Cincinnati and now heading on the road to meet a conference bottom-feeder. Buffalo is a better team than the record indicates. I won't be touching this unless the number comes back up. Sharps hit it at 8.5/9.

Arid - Definitely intriguing but I have zero read on either team. The only play I could make is on the Wolfpack money line. UNC has been such a moneyburner as a home favorite over the last few years.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by CoverLane:

Keep in mind Buffalo has been playing without their stud RB Bo Oliver...when he's back their offensive dynamic changes.

Jfen, I'm not sure how closely you follow ACC football -- but I'm interested in this NC State vs. UNC game this weekend.

I see the Tarheels giving 7 points to the Wolfpack.
 
this what this site is about information was looking at nc state and now may just watch

I think NC State is an absolute fraud. 
They snuck by Maryland thanks to a FG that hit the upright as time ran out. 
They converted two flukely 4th downs against FSU to somehow come up with that W.

Their only other wins have come against Citadel, Southern Alabama and Connecticut.

UNC returned to practice Sunday and found their locker room filled with NC State paraphernalia placed their by the coaching staff as motivation for the 5 years in a row that NC State has beat UNC. 

The UNC coach has also made it clear that from the first day he was hired, beating NC State is VERY high on the list of priorities. 

I'm leaning towards UNC this week but might just include them in a teaser.

NC State off two emotional wins, entering another emotional game against inter-state rival UNC...I think its time for the real NC State to show up and show that they really aren't that good of a football team. 
 
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Posted: #35

BYU has padded those stats by playing the #107, #108, #109, & #119 rush offenses in the country.

It drives me crazy when poeple make arguments like this.  BYU has caused its opponents have low rankings in rush offense.  Back out their numbers vs. BYU, and then tell me what you get. 

 
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Posted: #36
i hear ya bud glad to see that you feel same as i do tho hope you have a better week 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by mws:

BYU has padded those stats by playing the #107, #108, #109, & #119 rush offenses in the country.

It drives me crazy when poeple make arguments like this.  BYU has caused its opponents have low rankings in rush offense.  Back out their numbers vs. BYU, and then tell me what you get. 


You'd still get sucky rush offenses.  I'd agree with you if it was the first month of the season....taking out one game would drastically improve their numbers.  But hell we've played 8 weeks of football.  Take out these teams "bad" game vs BYU and they're still pathetic rushing the ball.
 
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Posted: #38
 
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Posted: #39
Only other crap I'm looking at is a Hawaii +14/Cincy +10.5 tease and Kent State +13.5. Maybe a few small money line shots, too.
 
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Posted: #40
And Wake, but that has to go back to 14 before I play it.
 
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Posted: #41
I don't agree with logic on Purdue/Minnesota. I personally feel Purdue shows-up big on Saturday. I feel Purdue QB Terbush has been improving game by game and they have more than enough weapons at the skill positions. Both teams defense isn't very good, so plenty of scoring to take place. Before season started, many, if not all, had this marked as a Purdue win. A loss in ths spot puts Purdue against the 8-ball regards to making a bowl, so I look for Boilers to overlook last week and be more focused. I will take Purdue laying 3.5 and over 51. Just one man's opinion.
 
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Posted: #42
Wake Forest + 14 -115 (1 unit)
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:

I don't agree with logic on Purdue/Minnesota. I personally feel Purdue shows-up big on Saturday. I feel Purdue QB Terbush has been improving game by game and they have more than enough weapons at the skill positions. Both teams defense isn't very good, so plenty of scoring to take place. Before season started, many, if not all, had this marked as a Purdue win. A loss in ths spot puts Purdue against the 8-ball regards to making a bowl, so I look for Boilers to overlook last week and be more focused. I will take Purdue laying 3.5 and over 51. Just one man's opinion.


I have to play the situation. Purdue played a whale of a game last weekend and was within seconds of knocking off a Top 10 and undefeated team on the road. To get back up and give a full effort against Minnesota in a second consecutive road game will not be an easy task. Combine the heartbreak of the OSU loss with motivated Minnesota eager to avenge last season's blowout in West Lafayette and you have a seriously crappy spot for Purdue.

Also, I think you may be underestimating the Minnesota defense - #45 in yards per play allowed and in the top 10 against the pass. Kill has made a ton of strides with this unit overall.


 
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Posted: #44
Wake Forest ML +345 (0.25 unit)
 
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Posted: #45
I'm just reading through threads looking for ideas because I have nothing this week. Except I think I might be with you on Minny. 

There are just so many games with compelling reasons on either side. For instance, Florida is WAY overvalued right now, but I just don't trust Mark Richt to come out and and win a big game. 

Similarly, NC State is a mirage, yet they're playing a team with whom they match up well (UNC's offensive strength is the run game, NC State is vulnerable to average to good passers but is actually pretty solid up front) and who always brings out the best in them. 

I guess I could take a week off, but it feels weird going from 10 plays a week to nothing. I'm sure I'll find two or three. 
 
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Posted: #46
Hey Jfen, big fan of your work on here.  I'm from the Philadelphia area.  What year did you graduate from SJU?
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

I'm just reading through threads looking for ideas because I have nothing this week. Except I think I might be with you on Minny. 

There are just so many games with compelling reasons on either side. For instance, Florida is WAY overvalued right now, but I just don't trust Mark Richt to come out and and win a big game. 

Similarly, NC State is a mirage, yet they're playing a team with whom they match up well (UNC's offensive strength is the run game, NC State is vulnerable to average to good passers but is actually pretty solid up front) and who always brings out the best in them. 

I guess I could take a week off, but it feels weird going from 10 plays a week to nothing. I'm sure I'll find two or three. 


I feel the same way. Going through the card I kept finding "good" but not "great" opportunities and after my shitty showing last week and CBB starting up it just seems like the right time to take it easy.

Really think Minny should be favored. I'll pay to see Purdue cover as road chalk in a bad spot.

Florida can win this game by 21. Georgia is so mentally weak and Richt has such a well-documented history of shitting himself in big games. But as you said, this Florida team is soooo overvalued. I just haven't seen enough to justify this line going from 2.5 to 6.5 based on one week of games.

Always good to talk games with you, Arid.


 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by BigProps:

Hey Jfen, big fan of your work on here.  I'm from the Philadelphia area.  What year did you graduate from SJU?


Thanks, man.

I graduated from Hawk Hill this past spring and am still in the Philly area as a first-year at Drexel Law.

Nice to see some other Philly guys on here. Should be a great hoops season .


 
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Posted: #49
Alright, I'm headed out tomorrow for a weekend in State College. Leaving mountains of law school work behind, but hey, who can turn down free tickets to a game like this AND two binge nights in a great college town?

Here's the card:

Week 9
Penn State PK (1 unit)
Penn State -2.5 (1 unit)
Minnesota +3.5 (1 unit)
Kansas +21.5 (1 unit)
Georgia +6.5 (1 unit)
Buffalo +7.5 (1 unit)
Cincy +10/Kent State +20 (1 unit)

Good luck to everyone this weekend.



 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



Thanks, man.

I graduated from Hawk Hill this past spring and am still in the Philly area as a first-year at Drexel Law.

Nice to see some other Philly guys on here. Should be a great hoops season .



Ah yes, hoops season is what gets me through the winter!  I'm a temple grad myself, so I'm anxious to see how the squad shapes up this year after ANOTHER first round exit in march.

Anyway, keep up the good work bud!
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