Week 8 Notebook

Instead of talking about every game under the sun, I think I'll just stick to a few plays I'm going to make for this week. My season has been awful so far, so take that into consideration. In fact, last week was so bad I had to take stock of what I was doing and I significantly revised my goals, my projections, my approach, and my attitude.

I had to reset my bankroll at a lower amount and recalculate my bet amounts. On top of that, I've adopted a new bet structure. I've gained a fresh understanding of how extensive and persistent bad runs can be. I never would have guessed that I could have a bad run of more than a year in duration, but now I know it can happen. My best guess is that the underlying dynamics of the sports you bet can change, and it takes a while to catch on, with no guarantee you can adapt and learn to cap successfully in a new climate. I guess that's what I'll find out for myself, but I need a little breathing room. That's where the recalibration comes in. I thought I was conservative before, but the new strategy allows a max bet of just 0.75% of bankroll. Any more would almost guarantee another extreme bad run would stress the bankroll to the breaking point. Already happened once, that's why I had to reset downward. First time that's ever happened, and hopefully the last. New structure gives me the freedom to play liberally within its limits, which is a key for me. I tend to eliminate the better plays first, for some reason.

Upshot of all that is that now I'm virtually guaranteed of a losing CFB season (first time ever) because my bet amounts are now less than half what they were. Beats going broke though.

On to the picks, but first an observation, and a little theory. The observation is one I've made before, that this year the books seem hell bent on stopping situational players that hammer them week in and week out with strategic plays on home dogs. Seems like they're trying to even out the imbalance we see every year in how many home dogs cover vs road favs. Seems the HD's still have an edge, so they're ratcheting down the numbers even farther. Theory behind that observation is that there should be some good spots for road favorites.

First up is one of those road favorites, coming right up....

Nevada -6.5 --

OK, situationally, this pick stinks. Nevada coming off the 4 OT heart breaker @ Boise and traveling to Logan where the Aggies are coming off a bye week. Yes, I've seen those numbers about teams the week following multiple OT games, but how many of those teams caught Utah St. the next week? I'm not a trend handicapper, and I'm not a situational handicapper, at least primarily. Capping CFB without considering spots would be foolhardy, but of course it has to be weighed against price. There are no absolutes, and I have to stick with my style.

Nevada is averaging 59 points and 670 offensive yards over their last 2 games. There's something to be said for being hot. Kaepernick adds an extra element of speed on the offense, and his passing numbers weren't bad either in the Fresno game. Barring eight turnovers or a blizzard, I just don't see how USU holds UNR under 40 points. That's the easy part.

USU meanwhile has surpassed 300 offensive yards only once, in their last game @ Hawaii. Against teams comparable to UNR (UNLV, Wyoming, Utah, Hawaii), they've lost by 7, 14, 16, 15 points, though 3 of those were road games. One other home game of note, they were thoroughly outplayed by SJSU but wound up losing by just 3, and even had a chance to win but fumbled a KO at mid-field right near the end of the game. Will USU get over 300 yards this time? I think they will -- UNR is a poor defensive team any way you slice it. But they managed just 370 @ UH, despite all the points they scored, so I wouldn't say the offense has turned a corner or anything. I'm betting they simply aren't equipped to keep up with Nevada in a shootout, but I've been wrong making the same assumption about other teams in the past. Laying points on the road with a bad defense is a recipe for disaster, so choose your spots carefully. Hopefully, I am this time.

Nevada, despite their offensive outburst, is now 0-2 in conference and 2-4 overall, beating UNLV and Nicholls St. Any realistic hope they have of going to a bowl requires that they win this game. USU meanwhile is playing out the string, with more winnable games down the road vs LTU and @ NMSU and Idaho.

The most dangerous player on USU is WR/KR Kevin Robinson. If you haven't seen this guy play before, when you see him returning kicks on Sundays next year remember you heard it here first. As a WR he is commonly doubled, and his production rarely stands out, but as a KR and PR, he is among the elite in the nation. Trouble for UNR, as they have been burned in kick coverage several times already this year. More trouble when you think of how much kicking UNR figures to do. This is one of the glaringly obvious aspects of the game plan though, and Chris Ault didn't make the hall of fame by ignoring obvious mismatches like this one. I trust he will scheme kicking short and away from Robinson, and ST will get ample practice time. Hopefully the damage can be limited.

If all goes well, UNR 41, USU 24......

Army +25.5 --

Simple reasoning here. GT never beats anybody by 4 scores, unless it's Duke or Samford. This year they won't beat Duke by that much either. Week to week GT's offensive production isn't enough to be spotting those kind of points. Other than the Maryland game, the offense has been all T. Choice, and I don't think they run him 30 times to get beat on by Army in a lopsided game, even with the off week coming up. Army has been respectable in pass defense all year, and defensively overall. Wake was afraid to throw against them and won by just 11, given that Skinner sat out. BC beat them by just 20, and CMU beat them by 24 but needed +6 turnovers to do it.

Just a percentage play, based on the high number and these teams' recent history. GT 31, Army 14......

Colorado +160 --

On the theory that there really isn't all that much to distinguish the competitive teams in the Big12 North. They'll probably go on all season beating each other unpredictably, and KU is just the glamor team right now. CU will probably have trouble with the matchup of their WR's vs the KU secondary, but might be able to scheme enough in the pass game to keep KU honest. Charles needs to have another big game.

CU in a good spot coming off the KSU loss, I'm sure they'll play hard. Lots of mistakes in all aspects for the Buffs, but they're capable of making the corrections. Played a nearly perfect game at home vs OU, don't forget.

Kansas came up big in the only game they were tested this year, but it's not like they exactly dominated KSU. A lot comes down to particular circumstances and making a play. I just don't see KU as hands down superior to CU and I see value in the home dog....CU 24, KU 21.

Like I said, I think it's situational. People are generally afraid of road dogs, and this is a classic letdown spot. Fortunately (or not) I'm no longer worried about such things. My scaled down approach will let me keep taking my shots without second guessing, for better or worse......

Iowa +240 --

I could also recommend the +7 here. Value actually went down since yesterday so I shouldn't have waited. Best game in the Big Ten IMHO. Purdue has collapsed, predictably. Last 2 games they have been held under 200 offensive yards until the waning minutes of the game, when they were able to compile some stats against 2nd team defenders. PU problems were evident even before that, as they really didn't outplay either ND or Minnesota to the degree the scores indicated.

Iowa seems to have adjusted somewhat to the personnel changes they have been forced to make. Offense was respectable in the Illinois game despite scoring just 10 points, and actually threw for 300+ vs crummy Indiana, but hey, Purdue defense is almost as crummy. Meanwhile Iowa defense is better than the Michigan squad that just throttled the Boilers. Teams going in different directions. Iowa a bad offensive game @ PSU but give the Lions credit, they are playing well. Purdue isn't that type of defensive team.

Houston -13 --

Seems like a classic Dr. Bob play, as the ypp numbers are going to be skewed. Not a play yet for me, but I have to decide today just for that reason.

UAB has had the good fortune of playing a number of bad or struggling offensive teams, and that has masked somewhat the degree to which their defense can be over matched. Miss St. was in a bad spot with their QB injured just the week before @ USC, and they played FSU (enough said) and Tulane. Tulane and FSU each got over 500 yards against them. The two teams on their schedule comparable to Houston (Mich St and Tulsa) each moved the ball at will, Tulsa getting almost 700 yds yet strangely winning by just 8, and MSU getting 600, only because they cleared the bench in the 3rd quarter.

Houston has had some issues and should have a better record than they do, but gave away the ECU game and could have beat Alabama. They also tried to give away the Rice game last week. They'd get ahead, then give away points in bunches. Two fumbled KO returns led to easy Rice scores on top of scores, plus an INT at their own 5 yd line had them trailing in the fourth quarter. They were unstoppable though, putting up offensive numbers reminiscent of the Andre Ware days. Did anybody else notice Donny Avery had over 200 receiving yards in the 1st quarter alone? And Aldridge seems to be getting back to his old self.

At any rate, the point is this is the best team in the conference vs the worst, and if they played to their potential, UH would put up 60. Isn't UH due for a good game or UAB due to fail to hang around or win despite getting out gained by 200 yards? UH took care of business @ Tulane, who probably has better talent than UAB, but have failed to win by a large margin in most of their games. Statistically, 13 is a very short number in this spot but that doesn't mean UH doesn't continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Tough call, but I'll be kicking myself when it turns out 48-10 and I didn't play it. Another case of an undervalued road favorite but these spots are tough......

A couple of Sun Belt games......

MTSU -2

ASU seems to be getting a boost for their thrashing of ULL last week, which opens up an opportunity. At -3, I don't think I'd play this game, but clearly MTSU should be favored at home. Looking at the teams' comparative bodies of work, there is a lot that is similar. Each with a solid road performance, ASU @ Texas and MTSU @ UL. Each obliterated a bad conference opponent at home, and each beat Memphis. MTSU was more impressive against the common opponent though, doubling Memphis in TY despite 3 TO's to win easily on the road. ASU had problems with Memphis for a half, barely winning at home. Inconsistency seems to be a big problem for the Indians, further evidenced by their poor performance @ ULM. MTSU had a similar lapse, losing at home vs WKU. Consider also that MTSU has been adjusting to a new QB and wholesale changes on the O-Line and I'd conclude that they are trending better than ASU and probably a more complete team at this point.

Key to this game will be MTSU's run defense. They have to bring a strong will, and not let down after 3 consecutive very good performances. Early season run defense was their biggest problem but they seem to have improved since the WKU game. UVa was a big test, and of course they were aided by the Peerman injury. Tough call, but you'd think they recognize that this game along with Troy is the key to a conference championship.

Haven't played this yet as the line may come down further, but I have to go with the home team in light of what happened to ASU @ ULM.

Next up may seem a weird choice, and I still haven't played it yet.

FIU ML

Same theory I relied on in making a terrible mistake earlier in the season with this team (@ MTSU), that is, how bad can FIU be? Found out the hard way last time, but my conclusion is that I think I found out more how good MTSU was in that game. FIU still hasn't played a manageable opponent.

Breaking down the Sun Belt, you find that the bottom 4 teams really stink. ULM proved they belong in the same category as ULL, FIU, and UNT with a really bad loss @ UNT last week. I think beating ASU was kind of a fluke, otherwise they'd have the same record as FIU. ASU showed they are vulnerable to fits of bad play against bad teams with the Memphis game, and they were -3 TO and 90 to 10 in penalty yards @ ULM.

FIU comes off a much needed bye to play what appears to be an opponent they can match up against, at least to some extent. They've had two weeks to shore up critical deficiencies in passing offense, run defense, and kick coverage. With ARK and ASU next on the schedule, I'm guessing they're keying for this one. If they can't hang, last chance for a win may be the finale vs UNT. Get your tickets early.

One note on ULM -- They had better success in the passing game vs UNT when they benched Lancaster in favor of the backup QB Trey Revell, who apparently throws better (could he be worse?). I need to check to see if Revell has won the job and will start this week. If so, that's another reason to back off. Lancaster gives even the worst team a fighting chance, as you don't even need to bother with pass coverage.

So what's the value I'd need to get priced in? Tough to figure in these cases, but I believe you have to take your shots. +400 probably not. +500 or better I'd most likely take it, but that's all guesswork.....

skin --

Road dogs @ Rice this week. Set your TIVO......

PINNACLE --

There are exceptions and nuances with anything. I don't mean bet all road favorites or never bet home dogs, just that in my opinion it's becoming easier to find value in road favorites and harder to find value in home dogs. Maybe that's why CU isn't +200 here, but doesn't change my perception that the game should be roughly pick 'em.

There's another factor at work that KU is a public darling at this point, unbeaten ATS. I think the people that are pounding the home dog are offset by the people that are pounding the ATS machine, so I can't say the value is unfair.

If I have a blind spot about this game, it's on the KU side. That's understandable considering they're hardly ever on TV and haven't played the schedule to give you a clear read on how they might do in this spot.

If you think KU wins in a walkover, you're practically saying they walk into the season finale vs Mizzou undefeated, because games @ TAMU and @ OSU aren't appreciably harder than this one. Well, maybe they are that good, but I just can't tell yet. I'm guessing not, so I'll take the value with the home team.

Miami +210 --

Not much to say about this one. Teams are mirror images of each other, remarkably similar in their mediocrity. You can go ahead and contradict me all you want, I see little significant difference. Neither team can run the ball a lick, maybe Miami throws it a little better, or at least they should. FSU better on defense, esp vs the run, but FSU won't be able to run the ball anyway so it hardly matters. Line should be -3 for HF, plus it's a rivalry game and HF hasn't meant much recently. Battle for bragging rights as to who's the #3 team in Florida.

Taking the points might be the better choice, but I took the odds because the +6 isn't being offered and +210 is more than fair for less than +6. Still, not clear either side will even score 6 points so maybe that's the better option.

Temple ML +210

Gotta keep pounding those MAC dogs. Temple at home having won 2 in a row and having out gained their last 3 opponents by 100+ yards. Miami overvalued a bit, benefiting from BG's meltdown Saturday. Miami does appear to be finding some consistency on offense, Sykes being a revelation in the backfield to help open up the pass game. Still, not a single MAC team seems capable of standing prosperity and Miami is now 3-0 in conference. That can't last. Every last team in the conference flat out sucks, including MU.

The way they've been playing, MU probably is a better team than Temple right now, but I still like the value. Temple has hung in every game vs similar opponents (except Buffalo), even coming back on BG before fading in the end. Don't forget they had UConn beat. All that means is they're good enough to beat Miami, not that they will. In the wacky MAC, home field, +210, and a team that can compete is enough for me......

NC State ML (+190) --

Haven't played it yet, waiting to see if it goes higher.

Just a hunch, but I think the Wolfpack will win a game vs a D1A opponent this year, and this just might be the one. Nothing special about the matchup, except at least ECU doesn't have an overpowering run game, which gives NCSt a chance. More an ECU fade with a team that despite it's bungling, does have talent at least on par with ECU and comes in off a bye week. If they weren't minus 5 million in TO's they might have a win by now.

I think NCState has more incentive here. They desperately need a win before going back in to conference play for the rest of the year. ECU find themselves in the thick of their own conference race, following 3 consecutive improbable, even lucky conference wins. This game is more of a distraction for them, a role reversal from the usual setup where they have a chip on their shoulder any time they play an ACC team. Couple that with the injuries to linemen they are still dealing with and it doesn't make sense to me that they are such solid favorites in this game.

Vanderbilt +13.5 or ML --

Haven't decided yet. Vandy found some hope on offense last week by bringing in Adams at QB. Let's face it, Nickson is a disaster, inaccurate as all hell and can't make a play in the pass game unless his receiver is wide open. The debacle @ Auburn created some value in the Commodores, and the scare they gave Georgia hasn't diminished that.

S.Carolina is being anointed a dominant team a little too early in my view. Judging strictly by their results, their offense isn't that good (and they still start a freshman QB), their run defense isn't that good, and their pass defense stats are at least partly the result of the schedule they've played. UK could have, if not should have beat them, they won a coin flip game @ UGa, MSU was competitive until their QB got hurt, and UNC outgained them by over 100 yards. Based on those results, I have to think someone is going to get them in conference play, so why not Vandy? @Tennessee and @ Arkansas on deck for the Cocks.

Of your 6 money lines, I agree with 4 and will likely play at least 3, the other two I am indifferent on and unlikely to add.

Hard to argue with most of your spreads, but I'm temporarily taking myself out of the spread business as I can't seem to hit any right now.

GL this week.

Last game is a good example of how the absurd choke down on road favorite lines has become. I think it is a good spot for Marshall Sunday night, but what in the world is going on with that line? Aren't people aware that Marshall is 0-6, they play absolutely no defense, and they lost to Memphis? Oh, and that their QB is the biggest box I've seen since Drew Bledsoe? Four frigging points, and it gets bet down to 3.5??? Give me a break. Drives me nuts when people are so wrong that they actually get it right. People are fading Reaves and the Jeremy Young-less Eagles without regard to opponent, it seems. No matter that they took care of business handily vs SMU, another game that was absurdly lined then got bet down even further. Idiots. Anyway, given anywhere close to fair value I'd probably take a shot with the Turd to outscore USM, but likely will have to pass.