Prep work thoughts....
FORGET...thinking about what the opener will be....
*a challenge...and fun but a time waste....what's the point?...to PREPARE yourself psychologically.... wtf
how 'bout knowing
what to do?....
when to do it?
note: no offense to DoubleUp
BETTER?....
1) what 'should' it be?
2) which way will it move FROM the opener?
3) where will it close?
GOAL of course knowing WHEN you can get the line you want
eg. I don't give a rats azz what the
Clemson / Louisville opener will be
IF...Clemson is less than a 3 pt fav I'm gonna MAKE THE PLAY. (one unit on Clemson)....IF...over 3 I'll pass.....if close to pick a slightly larger play maybe....if I get a (maybe) horrific BetOnline opener of Clemson as a dog...a LARGER play
What 'should' the line be?
*note very tough to set an accurate number for the INCREDIBLY explosive Louisville
IDEAS....if game was played at the END of 2015...what would the line have been?
*meaning how much has Louisville (probably) improved?...what makes sense?
GOAL: removing your EMOTIONS from the equation
*don't be afraid boys....the MATH is simple .......
answer....(about) Clemson -16'-17.....if you think that Louisville was much better than that.....then around 14....which would suggest they were about as good as Michigan St...Miss St....or USC...............................
THEN.....how much (worse) is THIS Clemson team?.......
*I think (at this point)...3 points is fair
SO.................we're now at Clemson -13'-14
(2016 Clemson vs 2015 Louisville)
An opening line of 3.....suggests that UL has totally closed the gap
*meaning UL has improved a FULL 10 points.....AND are now every bit as good as Clemson....a
13-14 point line swing MAKE SENSE?........MAYBE so sure.......but PROBABLY not .....IMO anyway
POINT?....
*IF you want to invest your money WISELY...and not be MR. RECREATIONAL bettor / simple internet jack-azz...it's always good to try and QUANTIFY things
Check out the raw emotion in that thread....'predicting the opener'.............
*WHY so emotional?....because you really have no idea what the correct answer is...........of course
NOBODY.....even attempts to back up their number...."if you don't think it's gonna be so-so then you sir are an IDIOT!".......
I listed it as 3.....a fair number maybe....maybe I didn't want to start a riot....or deal with insults / death threats.....
*BUT....you wanna talk common sense.....seems to me that Clemson should be regarded (at least) 2-3 pts better.....
*a home field edge of 3.....3.5 or so maybe more accurate...would give us a fair line of 5-6 or so...which I don't (think?).....we'll see
*esp since I think the Clemson D has the speed to match up with the Louisville O....few D's do....(I think Fla State's D is much slower than usual)
I think we'll see an opener of 3 or so....and to be honest.....I have no idea where it goes from there.....'smart' money.....takes it UP or DOWN?.....I would think down.....but no shocker if it goes up (it really should)
Reconsidering ha....being clueless....like most folks.....I think I'll make a small play at < 3 ....on Clemson....then see if I can get a better deal later
*if close to pick-em....I'll go ahead and hit it.............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Shoulda bought out.
...........
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