Posted:
#1
Week 1: 80% (8/10), +3 units
Week 2: 46% (6/13), -5.5 units
Week 3: 57% (8/14) +1.8 units
Season: 59% -0.7 units
Week 4 Power ratings: Instead of me taking 30 minutes to type out all 128 teams, I am just going to link it here. Copy/paste and view for yourself. I use these to project spreads. If you have Excel you can use make your own powers and adjust accordingly:
https://s29.postimg.org/ghfg183l3/powers.png
Week 3 notes:
A) USC loss in Week 3 was bad. Just bought into the USC hype about their defense and what can I say - made a bad pick. You know it is bad in Southern Cal when Stanford scored 16 vs. Northwestern and 31 vs. UCF...and scores 41 versus you. Pathetic. I mean, as a capper, don't you have to project Stanford scores 24 or less (probably less) vs. SC? Stanford with nearly 40:00 of possession and SC still manages to score 31 points. Unbelievable. It's all on the SC defense for me - and hey my fault for believing in them...but the offensive efficiency for SC was outstanding.
B) I'm a big believer in Notre Dame's defense. Legit NFL players on that unit. They are no joke...and it looks like they have a solid backup QB in Kizer who should get better. Really like ND's defense they didn't get enough credit leading up to the GT game and I blew the pick. Should have backed them - leaned them - and didn't follow through.
C) I'm really really really looking forward to the Missouri - Kentucky spread tomorrow. Love that Kentucky didn't cover because we have the potential to get a great #. If Kentucky is a slight favorite (3 or less) or an underdog this will be my pick of the month.
D) Love Northwestern as a capper just wish they weren't an AP Top 25 team so nobody else knew. Very reliable as an ATS team because they have limited offensive capability but a lockdown defense.
E) Miami Ohio is awful. So how Gunner Kiel throws for only 145 yards passing is beyond me. He threw for over 3200 yards last year + 8.3 ypa but vs. Miami 5.6 ypa????? Cincinnati also with 4 turnovers that killed them. I still stand by my -20 pick for Cincy. There was absolutely no reason to take Miami in this game sometimes teams just play like crap...but maybe Cincy is just turnover prone - I don't know.
F) Side football fan note: Spurrier is done at South Carolina. I said it after their loss at Kentucky - but I think he is just gonna mail it in and think about golf all season. Expected a bounce back performance but that defense is atrocious. Gonna be hard for me to take South Carolina again this year unless the markets get out of control in fading them.
G) Same for Bielema at Arkansas. I can think of about 20 great football coaches at mid-majors that deserve jobs. Lots of coaches are getting paid in this offseason.
H) NC State becoming one of my favorite teams to back. Not an AP Top 25 team yet...comfortably covered ODU on the road. Love QB Brissett. Gonna watch their value like a hawk.
I) Pissed at myself for not even considering the South Alabama money line vs. SDSU. Loved the +17.5 (but only for one unit...arrgg). Knew they had a better QB. So disappointed in myself here. Blew a potentially epic ML play that could have made my weekend.
J) TCU's defense not the same this year. Dropped them in my powers. This team is not playoff material I will be looking to fade them + play overs with them from here on out.
Projected spreads coming next.
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