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Week 3: Powers, Picks, and Write-Ups...oh my!

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Posts: 153

harvardofsouth

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 65

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 5:10 PM ET #101

Mcguire you are spot on with the Rice game. I went to UNT @ SMU last week and SMU manhandled them. Their offense could do nothing against a porous SMU defense. Was also a virtual home game for UNT as they easily outnumbered the SMU fans.

What are your thoughts on Temple -10 @ UMass. Seems like an easy cover or is this a trap? May tease them to +1 and throw them in with Rice, USC and Cincy.

Thanks for all your analysis.

harvardofsouth

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 65

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 5:30 PM ET #102

Mcguire I am all over Rice as well. I went to the SMU / UNT game last weekend and UNTs offense was anemic vs a very porous SMU defense. Was also a virtual home game for UNT as they easily outnumbered the SMU fans. Rice is a stronger team than SMU so they should roll in this one.

What are your thoughts on the Temple / Umass game? I am thinking about teasing them to +1 and putting them with USC, Cincy and Rice. Is this a trap? Cant see Temple losing to them unless they fall apart.

Appreciate your thoughts and analysis. Thanks.

Pecador

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 3074

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 5:34 PM ET #103

Mac, Agree big time on Rice play. I bought Rice -4 a few weeks ago for 4units. Love the under the radar game. I live in N. Tx. and always follow Tx. and area teams closely. I think you'll be happy with -8. Easily my big play of the week.

I keep a consensus board with the best posters on Covers. Keeps me off knee jerk plays I sometimes make. You are on my board of 6 because of well thought out analysis.

I won big last year playing against SMU. This year N. Tx. may be my fade team.

GL, Doc

AllAmerican99

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 28

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 6:15 PM ET #104

Hey Acquire..Good write up again this week. Tonight I like FSU as well..Also I'm putting a big play on Hampton tonight. They play Howard who is there arch rivals and haven't scored yet this season. Howard has no QB or defense and Hampton who is always good in FCS has QB who played at Virginia last year. IF you bet on 5dimes Take Hampton -12 BIG..

I'm nervous about the ASU game.. Teams who have played under expectations usually take that aggression out at home vs a sub par team. Tulsa put up 40 points and over 600 yards. I think ASU will put up similar stats. At 28 I was almost on New Mexico St.. How do you feel about -26 now or the over Under?

MrWonderful

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 792

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 6:16 PM ET #105

Noles rolls tonight. They're better everywhere.

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 11:01 PM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by Tmoney018:

Hey McGuire is there anyway you can post your power rating spread sheet on a weekly basis?

I can provide a link to a picture but you can't post pictures on this forum.

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 11:17 PM ET #107

1-0 +2 units great start to the week. New Mexico's D looking good early vs. ASU. Hopefully we start out 2-0 +4 units.

Anyways, some notes on FSU-BC:

1. Going to drop FSU in my powers from 15 to 20-25 range. 7 offensive points vs. Boston College is inexcusable. Just can't trust them offensively, but that defense is legit.

2. Have to give BC a bump. Their defense is just too good to have them that low. I think 50-65 range is good. Their offense is atrocious.

3. Haven't watched the game yet to give evaluations for FSU offense to see what the problem is. Assuming a little bit of everything.

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 11:38 PM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by harvardofsouth:

What are your thoughts on Temple -10 @ UMass. Seems like an easy cover or is this a trap? May tease them to +1 and throw them in with Rice, USC and Cincy.

Thanks for all your analysis.

Read my Cincy/Miami OH preview to see some notes on the Temple game. I think the # of -10 is close to right. UMASS has a few injuries of players that will be out but I don't have a good read on that game honestly.

Jailbait7127

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 6803

Posted: Sep. 18, 2015 - 11:49 PM ET #109

Quote Originally Posted by AllAmerican99:

Hey Acquire..Good write up again this week. Tonight I like FSU as well..Also I'm putting a big play on Hampton tonight. They play Howard who is there arch rivals and haven't scored yet this season. Howard has no QB or defense and Hampton who is always good in FCS has QB who played at Virginia last year. IF you bet on 5dimes Take Hampton -12 BIG..

nice call on hampton... wish i saw it earlier..

BulletBob15

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 94

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 12:29 AM ET #110

Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

1-0 +2 units great start to the week. New Mexico's D looking good early vs. ASU. Hopefully we start out 2-0 +4 units.

Anyways, some notes on FSU-BC:

1. Going to drop FSU in my powers from 15 to 20-25 range. 7 offensive points vs. Boston College is inexcusable. Just can't trust them offensively, but that defense is legit.

2. Have to give BC a bump. Their defense is just too good to have them that low. I think 50-65 range is good. Their offense is atrocious.

3. Haven't watched the game yet to give evaluations for FSU offense to see what the problem is. Assuming a little bit of everything.

Here is what I think you are going to see when you watch the game. Everett Golson wants to run at the first sign of danger. He's pretty elusive, but he cannot be like Mike Vick and move the chains with his feet. He is also not a very good passer. Dalvin Cook is very good and can take it to the house anywhere....but he didn't have much running room. Sometimes you just have to give it to the defense and BC was really good.

That said, this is the second week in a row FSU crapped out on offense. If not for the "Christmas" gift (pun intended), we would certainly be looking at a push at best. FSU unders are looking great though!

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:02 AM ET #111

Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

FSU unders are looking great though!

Yeah but you know the markets are going to adapt especially after this weeks' showing. Same for BC

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:05 AM ET #112

I really like what I've seen from QB Apodaca from New Mexico tonight.

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:19 AM ET #113

Just as I said that - stupid across the field deep INT when he could have ran for guaranteed yardage. Ugh.

New Mexico covers tonight. 2-0 on the books for +4 units on the week so far. Great start.

The NM-ASU game really should have been closer than what it was. ASU turned a 3rd and 6 from own 6 into a 94 yard TD (absurd). New Mex kicker missed a 35 yard gimmie in 1H. Missed call by refs on what should have been a safety for ASU.

Bad variance and we still got the cover - sign of a solid pick.

Power ratings implications: New Mex remains unchanged at 102. Arizona State I am actually bumping from 44 to 28. Just think they are better than some of the teams I have listed ahead of them.

2-0 guys + 4 units!!!!

BulletBob15

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 94

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:21 AM ET #114

Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

I really like what I've seen from QB Apodaca from New Mexico tonight.

Nice hits tonight sir. Hopefully the start of a big weekend for you.

BulletBob15

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 94

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:23 AM ET #115

Are you still considering cal at -6 or unlv?

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:29 AM ET #116

Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

Are you still considering cal at -6 or unlv?

I'll get a Cal write-up on here before I go to bed.

As far as UNLV I was just thinking about this so weird that you posted.

I think it all comes down to Decker's health. Conflicting reports I have read online. Some say doubtful, some say questionable, some say game time decision.

If Decker isn't playing then UNLV will struggle to score more than 7 points (might even struggle to score 7 honestly). If this is the case, then I think looking at the under here of 48 makes a ton of sense.

If Decker does play then I'll consider UNLV +34...but he might seriously be hurt and not at 100% - which will hurt his offensive efficiency - obviously. I consider this a risk. Also, what if he hurts his groin again and comes out? Then we are screwed as far as UNLV being able to put up points.

So the under is looking like the smartest bet atm. I probably won't risk it. Just something for you to look at.

Harbaugh is also a coach that likes to grind out wins (basically the Jose Mourinho of college football...if you know premier league soccer). Doesn't care if he wins a game by 9 points or 90 points. Wants to limit turnovers and protect his lead.

So the under makes a lot of sense here. I'll keep you updated. Cal write-up in the next 1-2 hours.

AllAmerican99

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 28

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:34 AM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

nice call on hampton... wish i saw it earlier..

Thanks I hit a nice 5 teamer tonight FSU 1st half, Fsu under Hampton -12, Hampton Under, ASU under only put $25 on it put gives me more to play with tomorrow..

Few plays I like so far

USC

UTAH-Think this is a gift as the back up started games last year and I think with his athletic ability is better suited than Wilson. Plus defense is lights out and Fresno has no d and limited o this year.

S FLa+7 Marlyand is in shambles. SFLA should have won this game last year. They've gotten better Maryland worse.

Tulsa+30-Oklahoming coming off a huge physical win has to play against a high scoring team who looks at this game as their Super Bowl.. Think Ok comes out slow wins by 17-23

Illinios+8- Liked this team last year but Lunt got hurt. They defense played great end of last year now Lunt returns and is on fire. NC defense is better but still not good and QB is to unpredictable.. See a close game here

Cincy-No explaniation needed.

Northwestern+4-really like this QB.. Dude had played 2 cupcakes. NW out physicaled Stanford.. Think the get it done.

Rice-Really looking hard at this game.. Had a pretty good beat on them last year.

These are just leans at the moment.. Will put together bets in the AM.. Would love to discuss so we can all win some money tomorrow.. Lets get a good 4 picks from all the great guys in this forum

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:42 AM ET #118

Really like most of your plays there except USF. Tough to back that QB Flowers - he's just bad. I think Maryland might have some psychological bounce back this week after that bad loss to BG (who isn't a terrible team...scored 30 @ Tenn). They are making a QB change this week so maybe they will get more juice in their passing game.

Actually think there is some value in Maryland -7 but I think that game is just too risky either way.

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:44 AM ET #119

I was thinking about Tulsa +30 too...that's a big line for a team with a good offense vs. anybody. Oklahoma coming off a big emotional win...big bro vs. lil bro in-state rivalry. Tulsa could come out gunning.

fuzzybunny

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 50

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 1:48 AM ET #120

Congrats on the wins tonight been following from week 1.

Thanks for your time.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 2:03 AM ET #121

Gosh you make a real compelling case for Rice and that was one of the games I eyeballed this week...

Strangely, I've never bet on Rice in my life...

Pecador

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 3074

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 2:30 AM ET #122

Mac, Got a coupla wins tonight but that mess with FSU was sad. Really bad playing for FSU. They should be better than that. A scoop fumble makes my bet good?

5Dimes has their reduced out and got Cincy -20. Afraid it might go up. So far have 2 underdogs. Taking SMU + 37.5 small and UConn +22.5 small. Looking at some more. Gameday can give as many bargains as early plays. Might add some more on Rice, saw they were down to - 7.5.

GL, Doc

McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 19, 2015 - 3:00 AM ET #123

Write-Up #22

California (-6.5) at Texas...1 unit

Power ratings: California (34th) at Texas (36th) = projected spread of Texas -2

Many doubted me in Week 2 with our Cal -12 pick vs. SDSU - but we covered with ease by 16 points.

California's D looks improved - held SDSU #1 RB Pumphrey to 85 yds rushing (21 carries, 4/clip)...however SDSU 9/20 on 3rd down.

If you take Cal here, it really is more of a Texas fade than anything.

Argument against Texas: Only generated 277 total yards vs. Rice (see my Rice vs. North Texas preview for more on the Rice/UT game). Texas only threw the ball 10 times all game - speaks to their confidence in their QBs. Only 163 yards of offense vs. a very good Notre Dame defense. A pitiful 2/14 on 3rd down.

On the flipside, the UT defense has been getting killed - a unit we thought Charlie Strong would man the course for this year. 527 yards from Notre Dame. 462 yards from Rice.

Doesn't seem like California should have too many problems against UT with Jared Goff (1st string All-McGuire team) & Co.

So why is the Texas D so bad? Well first of all, I don't think Texas recruits as well as they used to with Mack Brown in early and mid 2000s. Those Vince Young and Colt McCoy teams were loaded - not anymore. So when you lose 3 studs on defense - 1st rd DL, 3rd rd LB, 5th rd safety - it hurts more than it would have in years past. Also leading tackler ILB Steve Edmond also gone can't help matters (11.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 88 tackles).

When you really look at the personnel - and stop doing what I was doing which was give Texas credit because they have a cool logo - Texas isn't a good team - at all. What is there? Where is the NFL talent? I don't see any first round draft picks on this depth chart.

So it gets back to the evaluation of Texas. What if instead of being the 36th best team in the country (which they are not - I admit - my bad) they are the 70th best team in the country? That makes more sense to me.

Cal returns 10 of 11 starters on defense. So even if they aren't the greatest defense in the world, I don't think they have to be because it seems like Texas just can't get out of its own way. Remember - 277 total yards + 3/8 on 3rd down vs. Rice. I doubt Rice's defense is that much better than Cal's...if it is.

Cal was also 5-0 ATS last year on the road...really impressive.

Just gonna stop overthinking it and take Cal for 1 unit. If this was a lower # (opened at -1.5) then it would be a multi-unit play. But right now I still think there is value.

1 unit.