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Week 3: Powers, Picks, and Write-Ups...oh my!

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Posted: #51

Write-Up #9:

Stanford at USC (-10) ... 5 unit Pick of the Week

Power ratings: Stanford (30th) at USC (3rd) = projected spread of -16. 

My powers like USC...but what if I told you (30 for 30 voice) that my power ratings could be wrong about Stanford? Honestly I am giving them the rare Phil Steele benefit of the doubt. They were supposed to have an elite offensive line...that averaged 3.2 yards/carry against Northwestern and UCF. That isn't an elite offensive line (or a really bad RB corps - either way). Kevin Hogan looked average against NW - 20/35 for 155 yards passing and 1 INT. 

So what is the problem for Stanford you ask? Well, they lost all of their talent. Here is a list of  draft picks gone from last year:

LT Andrus Peat (1st rd)
S Jordan Richards (top 70)
CB Alex Carter (top 80)
DE Henry Anderson (top 100)
WR Ty Montgomery (top 100)
NT David Parry (top 150)

In addition, their top 2 RBs from 2014 are gone, top 2 WRs gone, they only return 4 of their top 14 tacklers on defense, they lost their entire DL (3-4 base), lost 2/4 starters at LB...the cherry on the cake is rotation DL Harrison Phillips is out for the season. ILB Noor Davis also questionable for Stanford. 

Stanford now averages 6'3, 274 on their 3-man front. USC's OL will eat this up. They are my #3 team and have played like it covering Idaho by 5.5 points (-44.5) and Ark State by 22 points (-27). 

USC is a team of talent and class. Stanford lost @ NW because they simply lack speed, athleticism, and talent overall. Due to injuries they lack even more. 

To be fair, USC guard Damien Mama (370 pounder) is questionable vs. Stanford...but against Stanford's DL I think USC should have adequate backups to cover a spread of 10. 

Many people are using last year's game as a measuring tool for this Saturday but they are misguided. Stanford got 4 defensive players drafted from last year, a first round left tackle, and a 3rd round WR....among other key players gone. My rating of #30 overall is giving them the benefit of the doubt. They could very well be a #45-55 type team. 

If Mama is healthy I think Southern Cal wins this game by 3+ touchdowns. Either way, they will still cover. You might be impressed with Stanford's defensive #s so far but remember they faced a RS fresh in Clayton Thorson W1 and a really bad QB in Justin Holmon in W2. Neither of these QBs has class at the skill positions or OL. Southern Cal is a different animal. Cody Kessler is the #5 QB in nation in ypa, #5 QB in %, and has yet to throw an INT so far. He's on fire and has an edge on every position offensively vs. the Stanford defense. 

Fade me haters...at your own risk. Pick of the Week. (for you trend guys out there my Picks of the Week are 0-2 so far...so make sure to fade me). 

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by 1969USC:

If LSU doesn't easily beat Auburn, they should hang their heads in shame.
... Get ready to hang yourself.
 
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Posted: #53
Loved the analysis on USC game. I see Stanford's problems now.
Great job, McGuire ! BOL 

Btw, do you see the under in this game?
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by jayh91:

Loved the analysis on USC game. I see Stanford's problems now.
Great job, McGuire ! BOL 

Btw, do you see the under in this game?

No idea really. I could see a 38-17 score or a 31-0 score. I honestly think the best play is to ignore the total and just pound SC. Why risk it? 
 
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Posted: #55

McGuire, I always enjoy your write ups.  Thank you so much for taking the time to post these.  Just wanted to give you a couple random thoughts.

Since you put me on to Kentucky with your play of the week two weeks ago, I've paid attention to both games they've played.  For some reason, they have completely blown the doors off the competition in the first half and then spent the rest of the game pooping all over themselves.  All I can make of it I that they are completely unpredictable, or they go into a shell after they get a lead.  I'm inclined to believe the former after watching them these two games.  I have no idea which team is going to come out, not from game to game, but from quarter to quarter.

On your play of the week last week, Arkansas, I'm not sure how you can feel bad about that pick.  I mean, Arkansas moved the ball AT WILL outside the 20, and someone replaced Brandon Allen with a pile of poo in the red zone.  It was insane, guy throws for 400+, and at one point with the game on the line hit the crossbar on the field goal post with a pass (Hunter Henry was wide open underneath that duck).  Arkansas wins that game going away if they have Jonathan Williams, he is their plodder, and basically their only red zone asset.  And this may just be me, but I think Toledo was a little bit undervalued because of their performance against Stony Brook the week before. 

Any good luck with your plays, I will certainly be following you on most of your plays this year! 

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

All I can make of it I that they are completely unpredictable, or they go into a shell after they get a lead.  I'm inclined to believe the former after watching them these two games.  I have no idea which team is going to come out, not from game to game, but from quarter to quarter.

On your play of the week last week, Arkansas, I'm not sure how you can feel bad about that pick.  I mean, Arkansas moved the ball AT WILL outside the 20, and someone replaced Brandon Allen with a pile of poo in the red zone.  It was insane, guy throws for 400+, and at one point with the game on the line hit the crossbar on the field goal post with a pass (Hunter Henry was wide open underneath that duck).  Arkansas wins that game going away if they have Jonathan Williams, he is their plodder, and basically their only red zone asset.  And this may just be me, but I think Toledo was a little bit undervalued because of their performance against Stony Brook the week before. 

Any good luck with your plays, I will certainly be following you on most of your plays this year! 


Thanks for the post. 

1) Football is a complex sport. Kentucky is going through a learning process - they have a first year play caller in OC Shannon Dawson. He said he was too aggressive vs. UL Lafayette and this contributed to drive killers. Against South Carolina, I really think you have to give SC credit for a bad 1st half and a great 2nd half. Also, Kentucky's OL showed some inconsistency in 2H which you can expect vs. UF. 

2) As far as Arkansas goes, we knew RB Williams was out before the year started. The problems in Arkansas I have heard come from their new OC who wants to turn Arkansas into a passing team instead of use their dominant OL in run game. 
 
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Posted: #57
https://collegespun.com/sec/florida-sec/photo-vernon-hargreaves-iii-back-at-practice-for-florida-after-missing-saturdays-game

VH3 is practicing now for Florida. Let's just assume he plays. 

The game plan for Kentucky is going to be run, run, run and test Florida's injured LB corps. 

Going back and forth on this game whether I will put a unit on Kentucky.
 
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Posted: #58
Doing more research on Florida-Kentucky: 

Florida's drives vs. ECU lw:  punt (3/out), FG (1st&G on ECU 3), TD, punt (3/out), missed FG (34 yards), missed FG (35 yards), punt, INT, TD, punt, fumble, TD, punt. 

Forgot to mention how Kentucky has a massive special teams advantage in this game with their place kicking. Austin MacGinnis is a future NFL draft pick (only a soph) but he buried clutch kicks on the road at Florida last year. 5/7 from 40-49 and 3/5 from 50+ last year. 

If you were looking for an edge to bet Kentucky then that is it. Kentucky's going to get more "hidden" points with their kicking game than Florida. 

Add in that Florida had 5 offensive penalties vs. ECU and I think that # could potentially rise in a very inexperienced offense's first road game. 


 
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Posted: #59

Write-Up #10: 

Kent State at Minnesota (-24) ... 0 units

Power ratings: Kent State (105th) at Minnesota (29th) = projected spread of -22

I wish I could bet against both of these teams in this matchup. Minnesota probably should have covered against Colorado State. QB Leidner only 5.2 ypa vs. Colorado State. Minnesota with 4.4 yards/carry vs. CSU lw. Minnesota with a +2 turnover differential still was taken to overtime. Says a lot about their offense - and offense I don't feel comfortable with against anybody laying 3+ TDs. 

LY here were their TTs vs. FBS opponents: 35, 7, 24, 30, 24, 39, 24, 51, 24, 28, 24, 17.  If Kent State scores a random TD then Kent State has to score 32+ to cover. Not impossible, but I don't trust Leidner. 

Remember, TE Maxx Williams (2nd rd pick) is gone, RB David Cobb (5th rd) and his 315 rushes/1629 yards/5.2 per clip are gone. Also 2 starters from OL are gone - not that it really matters vs. Kent State. 

I don't like Kent State here. They were stuck in hotel rooms as their game was delayed vs. Illinois and played a day later. They didn't score in first 3 quarters. QB Colin Reardon: 44%, 4.6 ypa, 0 tds, 3 ints. Minnesota's defense is on par or better than Illinois. 

Minnesota is missing 2 starters vs. Kent State: LG Jon Christenson and S Damarius Travis. 

Play Minnesota at your own risk. Just know Scoring 30+ points is something they only did 4 times last year against FBS schools - and that was with TE Williams + RB Cobb. 

I'll pass. 

 
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Posted: #60
Duke / Northwestern is a play for me this week - love what I have found when I really looked at Duke (don't make any bets yet then blame me later...wait for the write-up!!!). Can't decide whether I am betting the spread or total. 
 
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Posted: #61
Write-Up #11: 

 Northwestern (+3.5) at Duke ... 0 units
Northwestern +150 ... 0 units
Under 48.5 total ... 3 units

Duke drives vs. Tulane: fumble, FG, punt, TD (39 yard drive...failed to convert a 3rd & 3), punt, FG (end of half, but had 3:31 w/ 3 timeouts to drive 91 yards), FG, fumble, punt, downs (didn't convert 3/6 or 4/1), TD (19 yard drive), TD (kickoff return - doesn't count for me too random), punt, TD (Duke backups). 

Hardly impressive drive chart for Duke yet they won 37-7. Their only legit TD drive of 40+ yards was likely against Tulane's backup late in 4Q. 

Duke was one of my top fade teams to enter the year. Their offense was unimpressive vs. Tulane no matter how you slice it. Northwestern shut down Stanford and they should really have no problems with this Duke offense. 

NW: 54 rushes, 25 passes vs. Stanford. 69 rushes, 16 passes vs. E Illinois. Add in that Thomas Sirk is a running QB and Duke is going to struggle to pass the football against the Wildcats here (4.4 def ypa vs. Stanford, 3.4 ypa vs. EIU...3 INTs on season) and we are going to have a punt fest classic with teams burning clock. 

If Duke struggled to sustain drives and put the ball in the end zone vs. Tulane I'm confident they will also struggle vs. Northwestern. NW held Stanford to 3.2 yards/carry and the offensive line for Duke isn't nearly as good. 

The total of 48.5 is where it is at. We are getting 6 touchdowns + 2 field goals here. Should be plenty. Probably will be a 17-13 type of dogfight. 

Totals this season for both teams vs. FBS teams: 26 (NW/STanford) and 44 (Duke/Tulane). 

Also looked at Northwestern +150 on the moneyline, but I also am leaning Northwestern +3.5. 

I think the under here is the safest play. Total has only moved down 0.5 points so still a ton of value. 

3 unit play. 
 
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Posted: #62
Duke has Georgia Tech and their ACC debut next week so some potential looky looky here if you like +3.5 or +150. Northwestern with Ball State up next. Big psych edge for NW
 
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Posted: #63
Power ratings for this game sorry I forgot: Northwestern (39th) at Duke (52nd) = pick. 
 
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Posted: #64
GL this week cuz, but in your opening line did you say billions??



 
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Posted: #65
Write up #12: 

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (+2.5) ... 0 units

Power ratings: Georgia Tech (18th) at Notre Dame (35th) = projected spread of GT -3

Georgia Tech is the popular pick now that ND's QB Zaire is out for the season with 73% of the bets coming in on the Yellow Jackets (Sportsinsights.com). Is there value now in fading the public? I think so. 

First of all, Notre Dame has as much depth at QB as any team in the nation. DeShone Kizer was a 4-star recruit and was offered by Alabama - he's not scrub. Kizer was 67% and 7.7 ypa vs. Virginia. Notre Dame's #1 RB Prosise also 9.1 yards per carry, 17 rushes, and his longest run was only 25 yards!!!! Why didn't ND run the ball more with him? Unbelieveable. The former WR, Prosise, has really come on strong with 98 yards vs. Texas and 155 vs. Virginia. I expect a monster game from him vs. Georgia Tech. 

Tech is very small at DL and they lack depth: 286 - 298 - 282 - 236 across. Only one backup DT above 290. Last season GT was 12/14 in ACC (in-conference games only) in def. yards/carry. GT ws 12/14 in ACC (in-conference games only) in def. ypa. 

Georgia Tech does NOT have a good defense - that's a myth. GT had the #12 scoring offense in the nation last year - that's how they covered spreads. And they'll have a great offense again. 

But Notre Dame is a different animal. Their LB corps is OUTSTANDING. Jaylen Smith #1 OLB for 2017 Draft (NFLDraftScout.com. Senior ILB Joe Schmidt #7 ILB in 2016. Notre Dame had a scare last season vs. triple option Navy. Gave up 336 rushing yards and 7/16 on 3rd down.I think they'll be better this time around. DT Sheldon Day is the #3 rated DT for 2016.

This play is zero units for me with a lean to Notre Dame. 

I want to pick Notre Dame, but Georgia Tech has covered every game since October 18, 2014....that's 9 covers in a row. Tough to bet against that - but as a 2.5 point dog I don't think ND is a bad price. 

I'll pass and regret not picking ND later

 
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Posted: #66
Write-Up #13

Ole Miss at Alabama (-6.5) ... 0 units

Power ratings: Ole Miss (9th) at Alabama (4th) = projected spread of -5.5

Gotta bet on the SEC guy made me write this so here you go. 

Ole Miss briefing: We have to throw out the first 2 weeks statistically because the opponents were UT-Martin and Fresno State. Bama is a different animal We still don't know if Chad Kelly can play. 

The defense for Ole Miss should be outstanding though they have to replace their top 3 guys from last year. 

The biggest concern with Alabama is their passing offense. I don't see any elite receiving options that have emerged in their first two games - and with Amari Cooper gone Ole Miss has one less playmaker to worry about. This will be Jake Coker's biggest start and I think Ole Miss might have the better QB in the game. 

However, Ole Miss could be missing a lot of key players for their game on Saturday. Star LT Laremy Tunsil is likely out with an NCAA investigation. Starting C Robert Conyers is questionable. Alabama has the best run defense in the nation - and without 2 starters on the OL Ole Miss should be struggling here. 

The line looks right to me. I think the play is the under as both teams dare each other to throw the football. I want no part of this.

Pass

 
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Posted: #67
Ole Miss lost their top 3 LBers from last year - not their top 3 guys. 
 
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Posted: #68
Thanks for the write ups and BOL!


 
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Posted: #69
great insights.

thanks for your hard work.
 
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Posted: #70
Write-Up #14: 

South Carolina (+17) at Georgia ...  1 unit

Power ratings: South Carolina (42nd) at Georgia (4th) = projected spread of -18

"South Carolina lost to Kentucky at home. How embarrassing. Kentucky is always terrible. Spurrier is done at South Carolina. This team has no chance." - national media

I like this spot for South Carolina, and they got better last week in their loss to Kentucky - they found a QB. Perry Orth is the answer not the awful Connor Mitch. Orth threw for 9.0 ypa and led a comeback against Kentucky. He was a threat with his arm and seemed to have confidence - something Mitch clearly lacked. Now that SC has a quarterback, they have a decent running game with Brandon Wilds and Shon Carson. They have a big play threat at WR in Pharoah Cooper (though not much else). The defense was also much better in the 2nd half vs. Kentucky. 

On the other side of the ball we have Georgia and their overrated performance vs. Vanderbilt. Georgia had a pick 6 and a punt return TD. Their offense only scored 17 points against Vandy (they have issues in the kicking game as well). UGA only 4/13 on 3rd down. Only outgained Vandy by 22 yards. Vandy threw 3 INTs which contributed to the loss and still managed to cover. 

South Carolina's defense isn't great, but UGA doesn't have a QB in Lambert either. He was only 11/21 for 116 yards vs. Vandy. 

I think everyone expects this massive blowout for Georgia after South Carolina struggled vs. UNC and lost to Kentucky. I think this is when Spurrier is at his best. I looked at it and Spurrier is only 18-15 ATS coming off a SU loss in his time at South Carolina. Not great but not terrible. 

Another weird trend - and I'm not a trend guy. Spurrier is 6-1-1 ATS vs. Georgia in his last 8. He kinda just has Mark Richt's number. 

17 points is a lot of points - and my powers say it is appropriate. But I throw my powers out the window in a game like this. I could very well be overrating Georgia and underrated South Carolina - and I think I am. When South Carolina's defense wants to step up (see 2H vs. Kentucky) they can. And when they don't care (vs. UNC + 1H vs. Kentucky) they can be crap. I think they'll be up for this SEC East rivalry game to prove everyone wrong and that their season isn't over. 

1 unit play. 
 
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Posted: #71
Write-Up #15:

Florida State (-7) at Boston College ... 2 units

Power ratings: Florida State (16th) at Boston College (72nd) = projected spread of -14

 Everyone is fading FSU. Spread dropped 3 points from 10 after they failed to cover LW vs. South Florida + won by only 3 last year at Doak. 

Well guess what - as I always say - this year is this year, and last year is last year. 

Boston College is not the same team. Massive downgrade at QB from Tyler Murphy to Darius Wade. Wade only 155 pass yards, 6.2 ypa, 18 yards rushing vs. Maine High School in Week 1. Score was 10-3 vs. Maine High School after 3 quarters.  Maine High School only with 91 total yards for the game. 

Last week Florida State failed to cover (one of my plays) vs. USF. However, after a 7-7 first half they got their a$$es chewed out at halftime FSU won the 2nd half 27-7. I think that's the real FSU squad. They simply had some look-a-head with their ACC opener on deck and weren't interested in the Bulls. USF only 1/13 on 3rd down and Florida State generated 441 yards of offense (including 6 yards/rush). 

FSU drives in first half: punt, punt, TD, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt. 

FSU drives in second half: TD, FG, TD, FG, TD. 

Boston College lost 4 of 5 starters on the OL. Unlike Florida State, BC just doesn't recruit on the same level to have quality replacements. The run game will suffer this season without the same OL or run threat from the QB position. The defense was great last year (6th best run D nationally) but the pass defense will suffer (69th nationally def ypa). Boston lost 3 of their top 4 DBs so expect Florida State to structure their game plan of using the pass to set up the run - which they can execute. Why run the ball against this team when you can just throw? 

I like Florida State here. It is their ACC debut, it is their first road game, and I think they will be ready. Boston College has absolutely nothing that scares us offensively. Even when the Florida State offense sputtered last week in the 1H, their defense was consistent - so I think we can trust them here. Florida State won on a very late FG last year so I don't think they will take this road test for granted again - especially after a bad 1H vs. South Florida. The offensive coaching staff will be all over this young team to prove themselves. 

27.5 points was a lot - and I kinda underrated South Florida, but we are only talking about a 7 point favorite here. Everyone is fading the Seminoles...but I'm fading everyone else 

Boston College played Maine High School in Week 1 and Hampton High School in Week 2. I don't think they will be ready especially with youth at the QB, OL, and DB positions. 

2 units. 

 
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Posted: #72

McGuire87 premium subscribers ??????

Saw the above in the New Mex./Arz. write up.

Are you a Tout? and also come on the form with picks?

 
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Posted: #73
McGuire, any new leans or plays on the clemson game tonight? My local has it at 5.5..i would love to play something, whats the lean? 
 
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Posted: #74
Awesome write ups McGuire.  Respect. 

GW
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by BigBoiHarris:

McGuire, any new leans or plays on the clemson game tonight? My local has it at 5.5..i would love to play something, whats the lean? 

The lean is save your money for tomorrow night. 
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