Week 3: Powers, Picks, and Write-Ups...oh my!

Question

Week 1: 80% (8/10), &#x2B;3 unitsWeek 2: 46% (6/13), -5.5 unitsSeason: 61%, -2.5 unitsCan&#x27;t win them all. If you want to read my recaps of my picks last week (yes some of them where losers...but billions of you profited by cherry picking my "good" picks). All you can do is work at this and keep at it. Feel free to use this thread to your advantage. Ask questions - I&#x27;ll get back to you. Fade me, tail me, send me donations Let&#x27;s get started - and I&#x27;m going to intro my powers this week because there was a lot of.........hate regarding my powers. The reason you do power ratings is to create a spread. Are my powers perfect? No - nobody&#x27;s power ratings are perfect. That&#x27;s impossible. The point is just to get a number down on paper. If you think some of my teams are overrated or underrated please post! If you make a good point I&#x27;ll be happy to adjust. How do I get my spread? On my spreadsheet, there is a numerical value next to each rating (aka 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.). I subtracted the highest rating from the lowest, and add three points to the home team side for home field advantage. From there I get a projected spread. Can those spreads be flawed? Absolutely...but at least I can get something on paper and not go through the lines purely subjectively analyzing. Powers are critical to every serious, professional capper (and I&#x27;m not a pro by any means...just trying to get better.

McGuire87 · Answer

Week 1: 80% (8/10), &#x2B;3 unitsWeek 2: 46% (6/13), -5.5 unitsSeason: 61%, -2.5 unitsCan&#x27;t win them all. If you want to read my recaps of my picks last week (yes some of them where losers...but billions of you profited by cherry picking my "good" picks). All you can do is work at this and keep at it. Feel free to use this thread to your advantage. Ask questions - I&#x27;ll get back to you. Fade me, tail me, send me donations Let&#x27;s get started - and I&#x27;m going to intro my powers this week because there was a lot of.........hate regarding my powers. The reason you do power ratings is to create a spread. Are my powers perfect? No - nobody&#x27;s power ratings are perfect. That&#x27;s impossible. The point is just to get a number down on paper. If you think some of my teams are overrated or underrated please post! If you make a good point I&#x27;ll be happy to adjust. How do I get my spread? On my spreadsheet, there is a numerical value next to each rating (aka 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.). I subtracted the highest rating from the lowest, and add three points to the home team side for home field advantage. From there I get a projected spread. Can those spreads be flawed? Absolutely...but at least I can get something on paper and not go through the lines purely subjectively analyzing. Powers are critical to every serious, professional capper (and I&#x27;m not a pro by any means...just trying to get better.

McGuire87 · Answer

Let&#x27;s get started 1-128:1. Ohio State2. Baylor3. USC4. Alabama5. Georgia6. TCU7. Michigan State8. UCLA9. Ole Miss10. Clemson11. Texas A&amp;M12. Oregon13. Oklahoma14. Tennessee15. Notre Dame16. Auburn17. Florida State18. Mississippi State19. Georgia Tech20. Arkansas21. Michigan22. Utah23. LSU24. Arizona25. Virginia Tech26. NC State27. Miami FL28. Boise State29. Florida30. Minnesota31. Stanford32. California33. West Virginia34. Kentucky35. Texas36. North Carolina37. Wisconsin38. Louisville39. Northwestern40. Oklahoma State

McGuire87 · Answer

41. Temple42. South Carolina43. Texas Tech44. Missouri45. Arizona State46. Pittsburgh47. Cincinnati48. Virginia49. BYU50. Kansas State51. Iowa52. Duke53. Memphis54. Nebraska55. Vanderbilt56. Illinois57. Northern Illinois58. East Carolina59. Utah State60. Washington61. W. Michigan62. Marshall63. Colorado64. Penn State65. Toledo66. Louisiana Tech67. Ohio68. Rutgers69. Houston70. Bowling Green71. Washington State72. Boston College73. Appalachain State74. Colorado State75. Purdue

McGuire87 · Answer

76. WKU77. Maryland78. Iowa State79. Middle TN State80. UL Lafayette81. Air Force82. GA Southern83. Syracuse84. Akron85. Navy86. Central Michigan87. Wake Forest88. Arkansas State89. Tulsa90. Nevada91. Indiana92. USF93. Florida Atl94. San Jose St95. UCF96. UMASS97. SMU98. Rice99. FIU100. Hawaii101. Oregon St102. New Mexico103. UTSA104. Southern Miss105. Kent State106. Fresno State107. San Diego State108. Texas State109. E. Michigan110. UTEP111. UL-Monroe112. Ball St113. North TX114. UCONN115. Charlotte116. Tulane117. Old Dominon118. UNLV119. South Alabama120. Buffalo121. Kansas122. Idaho123. Army124. Troy125. Georgia State126. Wyoming127. Miami OH128. New Mexico St

McGuire87 · Answer

Let&#x27;s get my projected spreads down before we see the lines later today...I do not cap games featuring an FCS opponent. Clemson (-8) at LouisvilleFSU (-13) at Boston CollegeNew Mexico at Arizona State (-17)USF at Maryland (-7)UNLV at Michigan (-29)Air Force at Michigan State (-26.5)Kent State at Minnesota (-22)Buffalo at FAU (-10) ... keep in mind I don&#x27;t know QB Johnson&#x27;s status yet and didn&#x27;t adjust my powers for thatNevada at Texas A&amp;M (-27)Illinois at UNC (-8)UCONN at Missouri (-20.5)Wake Forest (-6) at ArmyTulsa at Oklahoma (-25.5)Central Michigan at Syracuse (-4)Northwestern at Duke (Pick)Georgia State at Oregon (-35)...actually expect this closer to -41 but my powers have # limitsRice (-1) at North TexasTemple (-11) at UMASSBall State at Eastern Michigan (-4)Memphis (-1) at Bowling GreenLouisiana Tech at Kansas State (-7)Troy at Wisconsin (-25)Northern Illinois at Ohio State (-23.5)Cincinnati (-17) at Miami OHEast Carolina (-7) at NavyUTSA at Oklahoma State (-19)Virginia Tech (-10) at PurdueGeorgia Tech at Notre Dame (-5)Nebraska at Miami FL (-10)Auburn at LSU (Pick)

McGuire87 · Answer

WKU (-1) at IndianaUtah State at Washington (-3)South Carolina at Georgia (-18)Charlotte at MTSU (-12)Southern Miss at Texas State (-2)Texas Tech at Arkansas (-10.5)NC State (-20) at Old DominionColorado at Colorado State (Pick)Florida at Kentucky (-2)California at Texas (-2)Rutgers at Penn State (-4)UTEP (-1.5) at New Mexico StateSouth Alabama at San Diego State (-6)Pittsburgh at Iowa (-2)Stanford at USC (-16)San Jose State at Oregon State (-1)SMU at TCU (-31)Iowa State at Toledo (-6)Wyoming at Washington State (-17)Ole Miss at Alabama (-5.5)BYU at UCLA (-18)Utah (-19) at Fresno State

fuzzybunny · Answer

BOL McGuire!

McGuire87 · Answer

Forgot that Notre Dame lost QB Zaire. Dropping them from 15 to 34.

wankerjake · Answer

Good luck, interested to read your write-ups :)

McGuire87 · Answer

With powers adjusted, Georgia Tech is now (-3) @ Notre Dame

1969USC · Answer

If LSU doesn&#x27;t easily beat Auburn, they should hang their heads in shame.

McGuire87 · Answer

LSU doesn&#x27;t have a QB. They are capable of losing any SEC game...and if QB Johnson turns it around Auburn is a different team.

McGuire87 · Answer

Opening lines (my book doesn&#x27;t have them yet)Clemson pick (pound pound pound pound pound pound Clemson)Leaning New Mexico &#x2B;24Leaning Wake -2 as well

McGuire87 · Answer

Leaning Eastern Michigan &#x2B;6Northern Illinois undervalued at &#x2B;31.5Really like South Carolina &#x2B;15.5Like NC State &#x2B;15 at ODUPicks later tonight!!!!!

kvngr · Answer

BOL this week McG87.Great write ups last week.I tailed and still say thank you very much.Hope you keep the threads rolling.

LonghornHoosier · Answer

NC St will be the favorite at -15 but I like NC Staate in this matchup as well!

gmanusc2001 · Answer

SC is $$

Pecador · Answer

McGuire,  Like your input.  Sounds like you take this betting stuff seriously. GL, Doc

McGuire87 · Answer

Just got home looking over the lines guys. I love California this year...but a 7 point favorite on the road over Texas? WOW...that&#x27;s crazy.

BWS77 · Answer

I was also 80% Week 1 and just 40% this week....   Let&#x27;s get those %&#x27;s back up this week.   Good stuff

McGuire87 · Answer

Picks now. Write-ups later: Eastern Michigan &#x2B;6.5 ... 2 unitsNC State -16.5 ... 1 unitNew Mexico &#x2B;28 ... 1 unit

boomersooner18 · Answer

hogs crapping on the field, may be the biggest upset of the season.  If anything I learned you bet with your head not your heart, thanks for the advise on the Cal game.  BOL this week.

MikeMed · Answer

Games of intrest1. Has the Navy ECU line come out yet?  I see you have ECU -7......I think Navy at home runs it down their throat and wins the game....ECU gave up 180 rushing YDS to DIV 2 Townson in week 1 and while they played Florida tough they could not run the ball and may have blown their load in that game....Going to be a tough prep and physical draining game for that ECU "D" here....................................................If ECU is really favored or if its a small number I am unloading on Navywho I believe had last week off. I would bet this at Navy - 52 Iowa ST @ Toledo.........If this line is under 10  I love Toledo....Iowa ST is not a good team at all....I dont care about the CONFS in this match-up at all....Toledo has 2 good QBS and a great O line and some athletic guys on D who are fast.....Love Toledo here and if I could get it at 6 it would be a "large" bet...Dont care if RB Hunt is out, that O line vs Iowa ST will create holes an overweight elephant could fit through.3. Pitt @ Iowa........I am just not big on PITT this year and I really like Iowa QB CJ Beathard...He may prove to be one of the top CFB QBS in the nation...Unreal arm and a dual threat...Iowa "D" has not played bad but has not played a real powerhouse yet and PITT is not that...I see Iowa taking care of business at the crib....your line is -2....I would be all over that.What do you think of these games Mac

Week 3: Powers, Picks, and Write-Ups...oh my!

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