Week 1...LARGE selection

The time has finally come…at least the spreads are finally here and I wish everybody success this upcoming season.  I have a few plays I’m eyeing, but none bigger than this one here…I look to hit the gates running with this “large” play.

We all know the Mountain West Conference (MWC) has emerged and is the best conference that doesn't get an automatic BCS bid.  LY 3 MWC schools finished in the top 25 Coaches Poll.  BYU went 10-3 finishing 21st.  TCU ranked 7th going 11-2 and beating Boise in the Poinsettia Bowl.  And Utah ran the table for the 2nd time in 5 years, with complete domination against Alabama, a team from arguably the best conference in the country, a team that went undefeated in the SEC, and a team that gave Fla. all it could handle in the SEC championship game.  Collectively, in the past 3 years, the MWC has recorded a respectable 23-26 SU record against BCS schools.

BYU specifically has won 2 of the past 3 MWC titles going a remarkable 32-7!  They are known for their high powered aerial attack, which ranked 6th in the nation LY.  And talented Sr. QB Max Hall has been leading this team for each of the past 3 seasons. With this being said, I can understand how some can see the 21 pts that BYU is catching against Oklahoma and not pass it up or be afraid to back Okla.  I for one will not make this mistake...I'm taking the Sooners to the bank as I see the Cougars getting blasted.

Sure BYU finished the 2008 season 10-3 and ranked 21st in the Coaches poll.  But if you break down their season and their opponents it is nothing to be flattered about.  I actually will discount one of their opponents (N. Iowa) since they are not even an FBS school.  That said, the combined record of the opponents BYU beat LY was 22-62 (26%).  7 of the 12 opponents BYU faced had losing records.  They only faced 5 opponents with a winning record and they went 2-3 against these foes.  The two wins were to AF (8-5) and Colorado (7-6).  The three losses were to TCU, Utah, and AZ, who combined for a 32-7 (82%) record.  The avg. amount of pts the lost by was close to 20 pts per game!  

With this weak of a schedule here is how BYU ranked by category:

Offense:

70th in rushing

6th in passing

16th overall

Defense:

60th rushing

74th passing

59th overall

Sure their overall offense was great, however, they lose 7 starters from LY squad that includes all WR's and 4 Offensive linemen!  A lot of times bettors will make the mistake of recognizing a stand out on a team (Max Hall) or the outstanding statistics a team records and backs them for that reason, without any further knowledge   This offense is not going to be close to what it was a year ago...at least they will not get out the gates quickly. Furthermore, how in the world can one expect this team hang with a powerhouse like Oklahoma or a good team in general with this type of defense.  Playing against the likes of N. Iowa and UW (who went 0-12 and they escaped with 1 pt victory) you can get away with this but this was not the case against good teams like Utah and TCU.

After losing to Texas LY Oklahoma's fate was with the BCS committee and part of the reason they got the nod despite losing the head to head match up was due to the demolishing they did to the other opponents.  Stoops ran up the score as much as possible to impress the committee and boy did it pay off.  Oklahoma expects to be in another tight race in the Big 12 with both Texas and a emerging OSU squad so believe Oklahoma's intent will be to undress each and every opponent when ever possible. (For this reason I look to back Oklahoma and Texas a lot this year).

This match up just does not bode well for BYU...I look for a thrashing. 

Oklahoma 52

BYU 17

GL all