Posted:
#1
3 team, 10 point teaser. Which team loses?
Penn St. -9
Tennessee -12
Alabama EVEN
also
WEEK 1 TEASERt
Posted:
#4
I could see them running into trouble later in the season, however I don't really see a sun belt team putting up a fight. Sun belt 4-13 ATS against power 5 conferences last year, 1-17 ATS with added 10 point teaser. Regardless, these senior leaders are fired up and will come out firing on all cylinders for a home night game. App st will have a very tough time scoring.
Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by mws:
Alabama will win, but Penn State and Tennessee are awful plays in obvious lookahead spots.
Alabama will win, but Penn State and Tennessee are awful plays in obvious lookahead spots.
Disagree completely how can these be look ahead spots when they have been waiting for this game for months now? They will be prepared and focused. Tennessee will come out with a fired up crowd at a home night game. Penn State has a lot to prove this year and will be trying out their new up-tempo style. Kent State absolutely has no offense so 3 and outs will wear their defense down. I expect this to be a blowout.
Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
what do these particular teasers pay? why wouldn't you either play a 2 team parlay or individual bets...I will assume that you are giving a lot of juice, and if one of teams out of the gate is marginal, you lose the bet...
what do these particular teasers pay? why wouldn't you either play a 2 team parlay or individual bets...I will assume that you are giving a lot of juice, and if one of teams out of the gate is marginal, you lose the bet...
-128 and I am considering a few different parlay options but I wouldn't take Tennessee without the points from the teaser.
Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by phillysports717:
-128 and I am considering a few different parlay options but I wouldn't take Tennessee without the points from the teaser.
This statement right here is exactly why you shouldn't play teasers.
If you wouldn't play it regular, usually the tease is not a great option also.
Posted:
#13
The discipline a person has to have to find games that are worth teasing, then finding 3 of them. The Vegas percent take on teasers and parlays always exceeds its take on straight bets. I am not saying that a person can not find value you in teasers, but It is my belief it is a much harder thing to do than finding value you in straight bets. I have done a chart explaining what %s one needs to hit make various parlays worthwhile. The other worse bet out there in most case is futures. Over/Under futures are fine bets. Futures to win championships almost never offer value. I am 40 years old, been betting offshore since I was 18. I post on this site for the fun of discussing games (and for insights of others that I can use). The second reason I post so much on this site, is to hopefully make people think about math and betting strategy.
Posted:
#14
SHUA I agree as usual with you, if your nervous about laying -21 -22 with a team why is laying -11 or -12 certainly great value. For instance I think someone has a parlay with LSU-OU-Alabama all down from -10 to pickem more less. Even in that instance I think doing a moneyline parlay pays slightly better. I think if ever teasers need to be used on certain numbers and more in super low scoring games.
Posted:
#15
Philly,
How do you feel about the following 7 games being teased together?
Psu -9
UF - 26
Lou - 28
Tenn -13
Ark -11
Iowa -18 1/2
OSU -17
Essentially it's just power 5 schools vs group 5 schools but last year had I left weak ass, NO defense having AZ out of my teaser Ida landed big $. Last year week 1 I had Baylor -26, Ark -25, UGA -26, FLA -26, USC -19, UK -3 along with the only team in that mix without a defensive pulse...az -21 smh
This year everyone in that list was rated top 40 in scoring defense, I hope to land it this year. What do you think?
How do you feel about the following 7 games being teased together?
Psu -9
UF - 26
Lou - 28
Tenn -13
Ark -11
Iowa -18 1/2
OSU -17
Essentially it's just power 5 schools vs group 5 schools but last year had I left weak ass, NO defense having AZ out of my teaser Ida landed big $. Last year week 1 I had Baylor -26, Ark -25, UGA -26, FLA -26, USC -19, UK -3 along with the only team in that mix without a defensive pulse...az -21 smh
This year everyone in that list was rated top 40 in scoring defense, I hope to land it this year. What do you think?
Posted:
#17
I play at LVH superbook, they have a super teaser -10 points. 7 games wins me x 3.5
I get it, statistically it's probably not the play but I've payed close attention to power 5 vs group 5 games in week 1 for the last 3 seasons. If you pick them right it's an easy lick.
2014 I filled out 5 cards at $200 per @ LVH (5 because they max bet you at $200) with the following plays in a teaser
USC, OU, OLE MISS, NB, UT,ND & Mich
1,000 won me 4,000. Last year I missed out by one game, AZ fucking off vs UTSA.
Trying to do get back on track this year. Stronger defensive squads should be the key as AZ shakey D cost me last year. Again not for everyone but Ima keep going.
I get it, statistically it's probably not the play but I've payed close attention to power 5 vs group 5 games in week 1 for the last 3 seasons. If you pick them right it's an easy lick.
2014 I filled out 5 cards at $200 per @ LVH (5 because they max bet you at $200) with the following plays in a teaser
USC, OU, OLE MISS, NB, UT,ND & Mich
1,000 won me 4,000. Last year I missed out by one game, AZ fucking off vs UTSA.
Trying to do get back on track this year. Stronger defensive squads should be the key as AZ shakey D cost me last year. Again not for everyone but Ima keep going.
Posted:
#18
Quote Originally Posted by a1_tellem:
Philly,
How do you feel about the following 7 games being teased together?
Psu -9
UF - 26
Lou - 28
Tenn -13
Ark -11
Iowa -18 1/2
OSU -17
Essentially it's just power 5 schools vs group 5 schools but last year had I left weak behind, NO defense having AZ out of my teaser Ida landed big $. Last year week 1 I had Baylor -26, Ark -25, UGA -26, FLA -26, USC -19, UK -3 along with the only team in that mix without a defensive pulse...az -21 smh
This year everyone in that list was rated top 40 in scoring defense, I hope to land it this year. What do you think?
Philly,
How do you feel about the following 7 games being teased together?
Psu -9
UF - 26
Lou - 28
Tenn -13
Ark -11
Iowa -18 1/2
OSU -17
Essentially it's just power 5 schools vs group 5 schools but last year had I left weak behind, NO defense having AZ out of my teaser Ida landed big $. Last year week 1 I had Baylor -26, Ark -25, UGA -26, FLA -26, USC -19, UK -3 along with the only team in that mix without a defensive pulse...az -21 smh
This year everyone in that list was rated top 40 in scoring defense, I hope to land it this year. What do you think?
Really like Psu, Tenn, OSU
Not sure about UF just because of unpredictabilty, however uMass does have a terrible offense.
Iffy about Iowa and Ark.
What info have you gathered from prior years with Power 5 schools?
Posted:
#19
Were I in the 10 team teaser business. The games I would focus on are the 10-23 point favorites. The games I like ATS without regard to teasers are Lsu -10 , OU -10, Indiana -8, Minnesota -10.5 , Stanford -16, WKU -15, Alabama -10.5 (This is the one game I only like in 10pt teaser form). IF I was in the 7 team teaser business that is the one I would take week 1.
Posted:
#22
I agree with Shua on Penn St -9.5 as a good teaser play as well, Tenn -11 not bad either, Temple down to -6.5 , Smu -2, Boise St -9.5 , Nebraska -19.5 , No Ill Pk, Byu +11 . Wow I might actually be doing 2 7 team 10 point teasers the first week. Any tips on best sports book to use on these in Vegas on parlay cards? I will analyze lines between doing them offshore and in Vegas. Anyone have good Database on spreads and outcomes on final score numbers. I have a good database on basketball and NFL, but not on college football scores.
Posted:
#23
Philly,
I understand your concerns with Iowa and Ark as well as they are my lat two teams to make the cut for this parlay. However, to answer your question, those two games still fall into the criteria I look for when playing these games.
What I look for in these games after 3 years of playing these teasers are the following:
1. Power 5 school vs FBS School (Pref SEC/BIG 10 because of physicality)
2. Top 40 defense
3. Has to be playing at home
4. Either an efficient running game,do everything-QB or High Eff Passing attack
5.Good recent History/stats playing against other group 5 schools
If the team I'm betting on fits those 5 looks then I move on to their opponent and grade off of these things:
1.4 Year Recruiting Class
2. Recent History vs. Power 5 schools
3. Ability (or lack thereof) to move the football
4. Offensive and Defensive line weight and Recruiting level
5. QB play
One thing I've learned and we've all seen with the new playoff system is the necessity to win these cake games on your schedule by a ZILLION points because a close game vs a scrub can come back to hurt you in the style point department. So recently in the last three years there's been a bit of added incentive to really kick these group 5 and fcs teams fools.
One thing I've also learned in a lot of these games in the past is that it's not really about the ability of the favorite to score 40, 50 points as much as it's about how bad the other teams are and how many points they GIVE away. Alot of these schools are going to be playing in front of the biggest crowds in theyre life, where it is louder than it's every been and the opponents are bigger, faster and stronger than theyve ever been or will be all year. Fla hasn't been a big scorer in tradition but theyre last 3 or 4 games vs group 5 teams they have won by an average of over 45 ppg. So if you can stay away from playing good non power 5 school's you stand better chance of them just laying down. Other than Appalachian state and possibly LA tech (massive roster overhaul for LA tech this year) the games I like fit that criteria. The size, depth and athleticism usually just kills these teams that dont have some special high efficiency/offense to catch you off guard with. And app does not have that, they prefer power rush which didnt bode well with Clemson last year and not sure it will with Tenn. We'll see.
Jason,
I apologize parlay 7 pays 4.5 to 1 so I bet 1,000 won 3,500 + my money back so 4,500.
They have decent parlay cards at all the casinos that have a CG technology book as well as at LVH.
Again not saying that this is a holeless approach or that its even statistically intelligent but it fits for me and I like this approach.
Posted:
#25
A1 , Thanks for your very well laid out strategy and criteria. I think generally check list like that are a very good starting pointing for making wagers. Matchups and gut feel always have to win the day at the end for me. Say teasing each game make them 80% to cover
80%
64%
51.2%
40.96%
32.8%
26.2%
21% to win 3.5 to 1 so not a good bet
next scenario at 85%
85%
68%
57.4%
48.79%
41.74%
35.47%
30.14% 3.5x slightly profitable
85% is a high bar to hurdle upon review even analyzing to death a
game and moving it off the right numbers down to the right numbers
I see now way that teasers make sense. Best of luck on yours though.
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