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week 1 lines...links...notes

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Posted: #26
For those who like to update their rosters regularly , 247 sports
does a good job updating those players in the " Transfer Portal '
and their current status.
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Posted: #27
Great to see you this early.... really enjoy your insights / plays, Best of Fortune to you.
 
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Posted: #28

new_wink_grin Hope all is well with the health my friend! Going to be in your state in August for the Funkfest San Antonio featuring Lakeside, Dazz Band, The Original Mary Jane Girls, Morris Day & The Time, Cameo and the Bar-kays. I went to the Funk'n in LA in March, and it was featuring the same groups that are in San Antonio along with the Zapp Band, and it was the best music event I ever attended, as the electricity in the building was phenomenal. Had seats in the 1st row, as I do in San Antonio thanks to friends in The Time. 

See you at the pay window .... an_2drinks

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #29

GOAT!!

 
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Posted: #30

He is in prime form already! an_roll_laugh

"Listen arsehole. I can beat the caca out of you any day I want. You would not last 5 minutes. The only question would be just how badly I decide to beat you. Now go back and hide in your cave hole, you broke little peon."

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



         
WG ------  man would you stop hatin' on my man Bill C ?.....
            $ where else can you go for stats (efficiency) based.....adjusted for SOS?
               >>  early in season a bit less reliable...tough to factor in changes...and not accurate for the OVERachievers (Army ...NW etc...)...checking his 'lines' vs Vegas / Sagarin for 2019 week 1....only ONE is way off (AUB -22 vs Oregon) . Ducks 2018 not impressive S&P / Aub high S&P but underachieved...
      *  rest:    OSU -27 at Oreg St (not bad)...Miss St -30 (unadjusted from 2018)...TREE -14 (NW always poor S&P < overachiever)........all the best buddy..........
           
          



BA ,Even BC admits his S&P + method only hits between 51-54 %
vs the pointspread  
He still makes the wrong team the favorite 26 % on the time.

His MOV projections are within + /- 7 points 53 % of the time 

His MOV projections are off by 40+ points 3 % of the time

That's better than most cappers   

I just believe that those who use his data need to be aware of It's
limitations , if one uses it to put capital " At Risk "

I am a believer in analytics as a much more accurate method to
quantify production . Bookmakers use it to a limited extent ,
and continue to get more accurate with it. That is why I continue to
study it in great detail, and use it more in my capping method.

I think that we, as bettors need to learn to use the technology to
keep up with them if we want to continue to profit at this.

He's given everyone who wagers on College Football a glimpse of
the future of Capping of a game which continues to evolve.
I for one am thankful for that.

To Bill C. Good Luck at ESPN & say Hi to Phil Steele for us. 

BA , Blessings , Good Health and Success this season , my Friend. 




 
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Posted: #32

Ahhhh....when I start seeing the literary stylings of Bookie Assassin, I know it is almost here, the beginning of another great college football season!  For the newbies that wish to become better handicappers, I recommend you read every word of what this great man has to say. These posts before the season are chock full of great information and advice. To BA, welcome back and thank you once again for all of your contributions!!  Let's kill the books this year!!  Good luck to all!!an_cheers

 
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Posted: #33

How goes it everyone, my first time here on the fourms how ever ive been a bettor on the ncaaf since 2012 when i learned all about it thanks to a good friend of mine introducing me to this world of sports gambling. 

Great article Bookieassasin, how ever I do have a question for you, and that is where would I go to find out who all got arrested?

nbc had something like that a few years ago and it was quite helpful because cfb does not post an injury list,(although they are supposed to starting this season)  and I found that reviewing that list helped me especially early on during the season when returning starters got arrested and thus were prohibited from team activities or removed. 

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by bohemen_mahren:

How goes it everyone, my first time here on the fourms how ever ive been a bettor on the ncaaf since 2012 when i learned all about it thanks to a good friend of mine introducing me to this world of sports gambling. 

Great article Bookieassasin, how ever I do have a question for you, and that is where would I go to find out who all got arrested?

nbc had something like that a few years ago and it was quite helpful because cfb does not post an injury list,(although they are supposed to starting this season)  and I found that reviewing that list helped me especially early on during the season when returning starters got arrested and thus were prohibited from team activities or removed. 





There is an  Injuries / Suspensions / Dismissals thread on this
forum started by Love CFB1,, You will find Arrests there as well
and documented cases of players just being downright stupid.


Welcome and Good Luck  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #35
BA , That's great News !!!!!!!! 


Congratulations on being named a Covers Forum Legend  

Good Luck and Great success my Friend        
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #36

Thank you for the info WISEGUY36 Cheers an_cheers

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by bohemen_mahren:

Thank you for the info WISEGUY36 Cheers an_cheers





You are very welcome . Good Luck to you this season  
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Posted: #38

looking at LT / Horns.....great eggzample of how coaches DO NOT coach each game the same

   $  but yet the LINE usually doesn't reflect this ......as most seem to REJECT past trends as meaningless............

IN FACT.....IMO this is a huge edge if you can figure out this kinda stuff.....I've used it to great advantage in bowl season....this year I plan to use it much EACH week during reg season

Check this out

TH when a dog......at Houston / Texas
  * home team 1st
                                              SU                   ATS

TEXAS    28    GEORGI    21    W    +13.5    W    
TEXAS    27    OKLA        39    L    +9.5      L    
WESTV    42    TEXAS     41    L    +1.5    W    
OKLA       45    TEXAS    48    W    +7.0      W    
TCU        16    TEXAS    31      W    +2.5        W    
TEXAS    33    MIZZOU    16    W    +3.0     W    
TEXAS    28    WESTV    14    W    +3.0        W    
TEXAS    7    TCU           24      L    +7.5      L    
OKLAST   13    TEXAS    10    L    +7.0        W    
OKLA       29    TEXAS    24    L    +9.0        W    
TEXAS    24    USC         27    L    +16.5    W    

LOUISV    10    HOUSTO    36    W    +17.0    W    
OKLA    23    HOUSTO    33       W    +13.0    W    
HOUSTO    38    FLAST    24      W    +7.5     W    
NAVY    31    HOUSTO    52       W    +1.5      W    
HOUSTO    34    LOUISV    31    W    +13.5    W    
PITT    34    HOUSTO    35         W    +5.5    W    


$$   SO.....his teams have taken the field 17X as a dog.....he's won 11X outright......covered 15X
   * losses vs OU after he already beaten them once  
and vs TCU.....who plays the Horns as if THEY are the dog regardless > GP a tremendous dog coach as well


BUT.....as a favorite?........not so much
   29-8 SU / 16-21 ATS


WHY?
   * so in some guys minds.....it's a mere COINCIDENCE that this has occurred?.....this 'trend' is MEANINGLESS  >> "hey man the past don't mean nothing!"......SAY WHAT.............

A.   That is simply his preferred STYLE.....only his 5th year as HC ya know......he knows SIGNATURE wins vs much more talented opponents is how you build a program
    * got him the TEXAS job too.....plus hot wife with DD's ha
         > beatin the crap outta stinking Rice ain't gonna do it

B.   he (seems) to have a more vanilla game plan in those he's supposed to win......AND (no doubt) protects his QB in these games as well ......>> big games they seem to be MUCH more aggressive.....exposing QB more as well

RECALL.......how I told you knuckleheads in 2017 to avoid playing Texas early.......as all summer they are looking to USC as a SIGNATURE / program building game?......esp combined with USC the eggzact opposite.....TREE the week before Texas
 

 KEY:    sure they CARED / didn't dog it.........but during the most crucial aspect OF the entire week  ....THE PREPARATION DURING THE WEEK.....THEIR MINDS WERE NOT ON MARYLAND.....BUT RATHER USC.......kids knew that's what their COACH was thinking of as well......< guessing but makes sense


SO.......I think we can conclude....that his preparation vs outmatched teams in which he is supposed to win.....IS FLAWED at this point

      * I would pass on this one....lean LT maybe


Speaking of ...........understanding MOTIVATION

Did GEORGIA players / coaches care about the Sugar Bowl?
  > were they 'FIRED UP'?......did they want to get embarrassed on national TV?......you bet / sure / helll no

Were they a much better team (probably) than Texas?......YEP
  * what happened then?


Very few get this somehow....so just trust me on this one

Georgia players KNEW they deserved to be in the CFB play-off.....being CLEARLY the 3rd best team in the nation
  * PRACTICE > getting ready for an opponent......is TOUGH ...esp during the holidays ....but was made much tougher after they watched Bama push OU around....Clem beating the crap outta the Irish......as a result Georgia got little if any QUALITY game prep in.......

   TEXAS?...this one was HUGE for them

$$ don't have the numbers handy....but that 3rd team left out....almost NEVER plays well in the bowl......going back to BCS days..............................
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

I have a wait-n-see attitude towards the Wolverines. Saw Patterson make a lot of mistakes last year, maybe Gattis makes it easier?

Sparty bounce back I fully expect. Started out flat last year and everybody gets hurt on offense. See nothing but up here. Tough road schedule, two sets of B to B road games. Oh look, 7-1 last 5 yrs with B to B road games. AZ St last yr the only blemish.


   

SMART way to look at it for sure...........
  * plus can't recall...... aren't you the guy that almost snaps his back in half to prove he's NOT a homer?..............

I don't see how they DON'T do anything but destroy MTS
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

He is in prime form already! an_roll_laugh

"Listen fool. I can beat the caca out of you any day I want. You would not last 5 minutes. The only question would be just how badly I decide to beat you. Now go back and hide in your cave hole, you broke little peon."


aw man forgot about that fool...............


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Posted: #41
RICO......2Dawg.......PUFF.....great to see you boys again / all the best this year..........

perogi97......you too  buddy thanks ..........

URBAN.....love that stuff...listening to this right damm now ha

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZQ246aEK5w

  following up with .....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGJXN4vEdXc&list=PLURt3qMC-MCsnEFfJshkOLNw8EvXw3IIu

SatNightFever05.....where in TF have you been man?....in THE LAND OF ENTITLEMENT...it is probably a crime to deprive the forum your situational capping wisdom....
  * note:  kids / family no excuse......wrap that bad boy up > get your azz back here .....................................

njsupreme1....WAY too kind as always buddy / have a great year.......

BOHEMEN_MAHREN.....ah the ol' POLICE BLOTTER.....
  https://deadspin.com/c/college-football
     * always quality dirt here

WG.....thanks for the help buddy...........

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Posted: #42

Word up on coaching trendalizer BA trying to work into my game ...... I mean how many times was Washington supposed to clock little baby seal teams like '17 Rutgers over the head @-27 and then you're like oh gee Gaskin only 7 rushes 8.5/carry and Coleman 14 times 2ypc WTF Petersen!!! i bet Gaskin will be ready to rock for Fresno -33 GOIN LARGE!!! AND WTF again!!! im taking CO in conf. opener +11 if he can't handle those baby teams and then... WTF AGAIN!!!... Petersen same deal, didn't make it to the big time clobberin baby seals...  

Good luck this year! peace_5

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


SMART way to look at it for sure...........
  * plus can't recall...... aren't you the guy that almost snaps his back in half to prove he's NOT a homer?..............

I don't see how they DON'T do anything but destroy MTS

I can't recall either. But my back does hurt now and then. 

MT a good tune up game....and then there's Army who chased Sooners into OT LY. Can't help but think Don Brown working on Army option before MT game. Still, MT very young, Gattis debut....

Michigan at top of hype mountain now! Going to the playoffs don't ya know. Everybody say so. Must be true. Soon Mich. fans flood Covers with guarantees of NC!! 

 Defense not as good, RB??? Top WR's hurt all spring, not getting reps in new O. And I'm not sold on Patterson.

Hmm, my back starting to hurt again. 
 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


looking at LT / Horns.....great eggzample of how coaches DO NOT coach each game the same

   



It's great to see you back posting.  We're in agreement here on analyzing the coaches......., but you already knew that. 

When you have a chance, which way do you think $ moves the line on the ULL vs. Mississippi State game?  ..... It's sort of in no-man's land in terms of a key number, 22.5 is exactly half way between 21 and 24.  Wondering if I should just take the side I like now instead of waiting for a better number that may never come to fruition.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


looking at LT / Horns.....great eggzample of how coaches DO NOT coach each game the same

   $  but yet the LINE usually doesn't reflect this ......as most seem to REJECT past trends as meaningless............

IN FACT.....IMO this is a huge edge if you can figure out this kinda stuff.....I've used it to great advantage in bowl season....this year I plan to use it much EACH week during reg season

Check this out

TH when a dog......at Houston / Texas
  * home team 1st
                                              SU                   ATS

TEXAS    28    GEORGI    21    W    +13.5    W    
TEXAS    27    OKLA        39    L    +9.5      L    
WESTV    42    TEXAS     41    L    +1.5    W    
OKLA       45    TEXAS    48    W    +7.0      W    
TCU        16    TEXAS    31      W    +2.5        W    
TEXAS    33    MIZZOU    16    W    +3.0     W    
TEXAS    28    WESTV    14    W    +3.0        W    
TEXAS    7    TCU           24      L    +7.5      L    
OKLAST   13    TEXAS    10    L    +7.0        W    
OKLA       29    TEXAS    24    L    +9.0        W    
TEXAS    24    USC         27    L    +16.5    W    

LOUISV    10    HOUSTO    36    W    +17.0    W    
OKLA    23    HOUSTO    33       W    +13.0    W    
HOUSTO    38    FLAST    24      W    +7.5     W    
NAVY    31    HOUSTO    52       W    +1.5      W    
HOUSTO    34    LOUISV    31    W    +13.5    W    
PITT    34    HOUSTO    35         W    +5.5    W    


$$   SO.....his teams have taken the field 17X as a dog.....he's won 11X outright......covered 15X
   * losses vs OU after he already beaten them once  
and vs TCU.....who plays the Horns as if THEY are the dog regardless > GP a tremendous dog coach as well


BUT.....as a favorite?........not so much
   29-8 SU / 16-21 ATS


WHY?
   * so in some guys minds.....it's a mere COINCIDENCE that this has occurred?.....this 'trend' is MEANINGLESS  >> "hey man the past don't mean nothing!"......SAY WHAT.............

A.   That is simply his preferred STYLE.....only his 5th year as HC ya know......he knows SIGNATURE wins vs much more talented opponents is how you build a program
    * got him the TEXAS job too.....plus hot wife with DD's ha
         > beatin the crap outta stinking Rice ain't gonna do it

B.   he (seems) to have a more vanilla game plan in those he's supposed to win......AND (no doubt) protects his QB in these games as well ......>> big games they seem to be MUCH more aggressive.....exposing QB more as well

RECALL.......how I told you knuckleheads in 2017 to avoid playing Texas early.......as all summer they are looking to USC as a SIGNATURE / program building game?......esp combined with USC the eggzact opposite.....TREE the week before Texas
 

 KEY:    sure they CARED / didn't dog it.........but during the most crucial aspect OF the entire week  ....THE PREPARATION DURING THE WEEK.....THEIR MINDS WERE NOT ON MARYLAND.....BUT RATHER USC.......kids knew that's what their COACH was thinking of as well......< guessing but makes sense


SO.......I think we can conclude....that his preparation vs outmatched teams in which he is supposed to win.....IS FLAWED at this point

      * I would pass on this one....lean LT maybe


Speaking of ...........understanding MOTIVATION

Did GEORGIA players / coaches care about the Sugar Bowl?
  > were they 'FIRED UP'?......did they want to get embarrassed on national TV?......you bet / sure / helll no

Were they a much better team (probably) than Texas?......YEP
  * what happened then?


Very few get this somehow....so just trust me on this one

Georgia players KNEW they deserved to be in the CFB play-off.....being CLEARLY the 3rd best team in the nation
  * PRACTICE > getting ready for an opponent......is TOUGH ...esp during the holidays ....but was made much tougher after they watched Bama push OU around....Clem beating the crap outta the Irish......as a result Georgia got little if any QUALITY game prep in.......

   TEXAS?...this one was HUGE for them

$$ don't have the numbers handy....but that 3rd team left out....almost NEVER plays well in the bowl......going back to BCS days..............................




BA , Thanks for sharing this with the Forum . There are quite a few
things like this that affect production in a matchup that those who
rely solely on raw stats cannot factor into a predicted result.
This is great insight and I hope you will post more on other similar
factors that cappers should consider in their capping method.

Thanks again , Bud  
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Posted: #46
Yes, eye opener! 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:




It's great to see you back posting.  We're in agreement here on analyzing the coaches......., but you already knew that. 

When you have a chance, which way do you think $ moves the line on the ULL vs. Mississippi State game?  ..... It's sort of in no-man's land in terms of a key number, 22.5 is exactly half way between 21 and 24.  Wondering if I should just take the side I like now instead of waiting for a better number that may never come to fruition.



too funny......been meaning to post this (c/p from notes)

c'mon man....you KNOW you wanna play Billy N / ULL...let's have it ha.......

I would think ?.....that public $ pushes it upwards to 23'-24
  * as we get reports like this :

https://247sports.com/Article/Tommy-Stevens-Mississippi-State-Manning-Passing-Academy-Penn-State-football-133336926/

>>  then it get's bet down a bit closer to KO.......we might see 24 sure / can't see it dropping below 21

                       ----------------------------------------------

BTW......(for others / TD already knows this stuff)


GREAT SPOT FOR ULL

1)    Forget all else....the 1st thing you look at here

WHAT ARE THE COACHES TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH HERE?

ULL -

  Billy N is BUILDING his program....off great year + huge recruiting class as well.....fans love him / players are confident > to go out and get slaughtered again (56-10 LY) would be BAD

how does schedule shape up?....it matters
  >>  Liberty
        TX Southern
         @ Ohio
          @ Ga Southern
            BYE
            App St  > Ark St

SO.....he has 2 weeks to get guys healthy before tough road game with Ohio .....then a really tough road game with Ga Southern (off bye / likely loss at Minny week before)

**IF ....he had GS the next week .....he (might) not go all out here.....keeping key players in all game >>  EXPOSING THEM TO INJURY



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Posted: #48
MISS ST

Building / maintaining as well........
  * BUT are his (Joe Moorhead) goals to go out and kick the dog sheet outta ULL?)........not unless he's an idiot

next only S Miss......but then
Kan St > Kentucky > @ Auburn

SO....he uses these 1st 2 as SCRIMMAGES
  * finding a QB that can actually THROW.....otherwise teams he can't RUN on are gonna beat his azz again....plus he claims he only put in about 1/2 his O LY
  * DC Shoop needs to get his new guys on D reps....supposedly experimenting with more even fronts (4-2-5 vs
old 3-4)


2)   SO we can make a decent guess that ULL just might not have the FULL FOCUS of Miss St.....

BUT......can ULL compete here?
  * can they RUN the ball / move the chains / avoid 3rd - longs > get new QB killed?
  * can they slow MSU down at least?

LY QB Nunez was just OK......so new guy will probably be as good eventually.....game 1 vs SEC D?.....who TF knows
   >> my guess is they'll be OK here......5 5th yr Srs on OL (st every game LY).....plus 3 pretty good RB's....they bleed clock here / screen MSU to death....keep them off balance > hit a few big plays maybe.....

Can an improved  but still really weak ULL D not get steamrolled by a Joe Moorhead O ?
  > he's pretty sharp

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/7/17/17453332/joe-moorhead-mississippi-state-offense-philosophy

Depends on the development of QB Stevens (likely starter at Penn St before transfer).....if he starts Thompson (worse passer than Nick F).....working Stevens in later ......ULL can hang here
  $    BUT if Stevens is lighting it up (definite possibility).....the problem for a ULL bet will be magnified....as they will likely leave him in late in game (needs the reps)

For me a strong lean ULL for sure....look at the UNDER too...


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Posted: #49

Thanks for the info Bookieassasin an_cheers

 
 
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Posted: #50

I am looking alot at the ole miss Memphis game, and the bookies have it currently at -6 to -6.5 on Memphis.

Memphis in in 1015 while playing them in Memphis won 37-24 and ole miss was favored by -10. 

ole Miss has lost their last 3 true road openers, and my question is do you guys think it will continue or do you think that ole miss will pull out a win or loose by 3 or 4.... with the team back up to 85 scholarships and the bowl bann finaly gone can their players pull of an early win on the road with only 3 players returning on offense?

 

and will Memphis's loses of their star RB Henderson and WR Pollard hurt them as well as only returning 2 Ol starters on the line.

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