week 1 lines...links...notes

165 East Carolina
166 North Carolina State  -23
  * NCSU > FCS...won 58-3 LY     
     > ECU maybe much better?
+
167 Akron
168 Illinois  -18
  $ UI  > @ UConn
     >>  UI big game / few chance for feel good W       
 
 
169 Ball State
                  * Lucas Oil Indy
170 Indiana  -16
  $ UI > FCS...won 38-10 LY     
 
   
171 Toledo
172 Kentucky  -12
  $$  UK > @ FLA > @ Miss St > @ S Caro !! (4-11 run non-conf)
   $  TU > FCS     
 

173 Mississippi State  -20'
174 Louisiana-Lafayette     
  $ MSU > SMiss / W 56-10 LY


175 Mississippi
176 Memphis  -5
  $ Miss > Ark > SELA
  $  Mem > FCS > S Ala     
 

177 Georgia State
178 Tennessee  -27'
  $ UT > BYU     
     >> Offense MUST get confidence here

179 Eastern Michigan  -7
180 Coastal Carolina     
  $ EM 12-2 non-conf / @ Kentucky next
     >> next to DUKE best in non-conf games
     $$ covered 69% of games L3 years

181 South Carolina  -8'
                    * Charlotte / BOA stadium
182 North Carolina     
  $ SC > FCS > BAMA
   >> maybe stay away from UNC early....MACK is HIGHLY motivated to show he can still coach

183 Duke
184 Alabama  -28
  $ A- NMex St
  $ D- 11-3 non-conf / FCS on deck     
    >>  Cutcliffe BEST in non-conf
   
185 Northwestern
186 TREE  -3'
  $$$ Tree > @USC > @ UCF > Oreg          
  >> maybe pass here (screams NW)....a slow starter
   
187 Virginia Tech
188 Boston College  -2
  $ BC > FCS > Kansas > Rut
  $ VT > Old D > FCS > bye
     >> ZERO to suggest VT favored here

189 Syracuse  -20
190 Liberty     
  $ S- @ Terps > Clem


191 Boise State
               * JACKSONVILLE
192 Florida State  -3
  $ FSU > ULM
  $ B- Herd > FCS     
 

193 Southern Methodist
194 Arkansas State  -2'
  $ ASU 4-10 NConf....new OC / DC     

195 Middle Tennessee St.
196 Michigan  -35
  $ UM - Army > BYE
     
 
197 Miami (OH)
198 Iowa  -22
  UI > Rut > Iowa St > bye
 
 
199 Georgia Southern
200 LSU  -24
  $ LSU  > @ TEXAS
   >>  LSU (new) passing attack (show here?)      
 
201 Georgia  -20
202 Vanderbilt   
  $  Ga- FCS > Ark St > NDAME
 

203 Virginia  -2'
204 Pittsburgh     
  * Pitt won 23-13 LY
 
205 Missouri -13'
206 Wyoming     
  $  UM > W Virg

     
207 Oregon
  * at Jerry's Stripper Palace
208 Auburn  -3     
  * A- Tulane > G Flashes
    O- Nevada > Montana > Tree

209 Louisiana Tech
210 Texas  -21
  $  T- LSU next     
  $$ LT / Skip tough road dog (14-4 run)
       >> Bob Diaco new DC
   *** Horns likely cover?...but stay away here for the love of GOD

211 New Mexico State
212 Washington State  -35
  $  W > FCS
     NMSU > @ Bama     
 

213 Fresno State
214 Southern Cal  -9'
  $  2 TD swing from LY = PASS on this one
  USC > TREE > @BYU > @Wash > Utah >bye/ NDame  !!!     
 
   

PREVIEWS

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-team-previews-2019
https://collegefootballnews.com/category/features/2019-preview
https://theathletic.com/college-football/
https://philsteele.com/product/2019-college-football-preview/
https://experts.covers.com/ArticlesArchive/Marc_Lawrence (free)
https://www.ipsports.net/ecps/ecapper_store/product_info.php?PRODUCT_ID=1197&SITE_ID=0
  $ Marc Lawrence's Playbook
https://athlonsports.com/
https://www.goldsheet.com/index.php  (will start soon)



GENERAL CFB

https://www.ncaafootball.com/
https://espn.go.com/college-football/
https://theathletic.com/college-football/
https://www.si.com/college-football
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/
https://www.athlonsports.com/college-football
https://www.lindyssports.com/college-football/
https://fansided.com/ncaa-football/
https://collegefootball.ap.org/
https://bleacherreport.com/college-football
https://www.nationalchamps.net/
https://heismanpundit.com/
  *rosters and depth chart for each team
  https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/
https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/TransferPortal/
https://gradtransfertracker.com/
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/create


POWER RATINGS

https://www.goldsheet.com/product.php (weekly newsletter)
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/3/31/11336856/ncaa-football-2019-conference-projections-predictions
https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
https://thepowerrank.com/college-football/bowl-subdivision-rankings/
https://www.cfbanalytics.com/ratings
https://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
https://www.dunkelindex.com/football_level/ncaa-college/
https://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/superlist/
https://knology.net/~brucepayne/
https://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfpred.txt
https://powerratings.com/cfootball.htm
https://www.compughterratings.com/FBS/ratings
https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/current_congrove_rankings.html
 


STATS

https://www.cfbstats.com/2017/national/index.html
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
https://www.cfbanalytics.com/2018-stats
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/stats/
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
https://www.statfox.com/
https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/NCAAF/
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/
https://football.stassen.com/



ATS

head to head / vs conf / off or before bye etc..
  https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database
situational
  https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/
spread > winnning %
  https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
spread > ML conversion
  https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/spread-ml-converter/
team overall
  https://www.statfox.com/cfb/teamreport.asp?sortby=team


INJURIES


https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/
https://www.philsteele.com/miscpages/Injuries/prior_to_ssn.html
https://www.sportsinsights.com/college-football/injuries/0
https://scores.goldsheet.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=goldsheet2&page=cfoot/indexpic.htm
https://newsday.sports.gracenote.com/football/ncaaf/injuries
https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/
https://www.rotoworld.com/sports/cfb/college-football

You've come out of hibernation early this season , my friend .

You must be anxious to get this thing started. Me Too   

Hope all is well with you .

Blessings and Good Luck this season         

GENERAL WAGERING

https://www.covers.com/
https://www.vegasinsider.com/
https://www.goldsheet.com/gs_new/index.php
https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/
https://www.handicapper.net/
https://www.sportsnetwork.com/
https://www.playbook.com/
https://www.ncsports.com/
https://www.pickmonitor.com/how-to-bet-on-sports
https://www.scoresandodds.com/index.html
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds
https://www.bettingtalk.com/
https://www.thespread.com/ncaafb
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/index.php
https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ (Kelly criterion calculator)
https://www.covers.com/sportsbetting/money_lines.aspx (winning probablity / ML calculator)
https://www.casinoreview.org/resources/caculator/spreadml-converter/ (spread to ML_
https://www.vegasinsider.com/live-odds/line-originator/nevada/ (Vegas lines originate)

 
COACHING STUFF

https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/coaching_changes.html
https://footballscoop.com/
https://coachingsearch.com/
https://coacheshotseat.com/


NEWSLETTERS

https://www.playbook.com/
https://www.ncsports.com/
https://www.goldsheet.com/gs_new/product.php
https://winningpoints.com/football.html
https://www.pointwisesports.com/
https://www.sportsreporter.com/



SCHEDULES / LINESHEETS

https://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/2018-college-football-schedules.php
https://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm
https://www.ncsports.com/schedule_logs.html
https://www.ospublications.com/
https://www.gridirongold.com/football-line-sheets.htm
https://www.linesheet.com/footballnextweek.htm



FCS


https://www.fcs.football/fcsfront.asp
https://www.fcsinsider.com/
https://www.philsteele.com/FCSINFO/TeamPages/FCS_Direct.html
https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fcs
https://herosports.com/colleges/sports/fcs-mens-football
https://www.theunderdawg.com/
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football



Football Nerds only

https://smartfootball.com/
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/
https://www.sbnation.com/users/Ian%20Boyd
https://www.footballxos.com/
https://www.xandolabs.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=featured&Itemid=101
https://www.solidverbal.com/
https://www.blitzology.com/
https://brophyfootball.blogspot.com/
https://coachhuey.com/

articles / books...

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't / Nate Silver
Thinking, Fast and Slow / Daniel Kahneman
Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management/ Joseph Buchdahl  
Sharp Sports Betting / Stanford Wong
Fooled by Randomness/Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Illusion of Conscious Will/ Daniel M Wegner < I DARE you (double dog) to read this one ha
The Obstacle Is the Way: The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into Triumph / Ryan Holiday  

https://qz-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/qz.com/967554/the-five-universal-laws-of-human-stupidity/amp/?usqp=mq331AQA&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fqz.com%2F967554%2Fthe-five-universal-laws-of-human-stupidity%2F
https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/11863567/betting-five-biggest-cognitive-biases-impair-sports-bettors-most
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Psychology/the-importance-of-patience-in-betting/WZ52LN9NV97SRDHC
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/staking-one-method-to-improve-your-betting/2962VHE9W3JPJ7X7
https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/01/howard-marks-psychology-is-the-most-important-discipline-in-investing/

https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/03/19-for-19-offseason-topics-no-17-every-power-five-teams-letdown-game
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/3/6/8157709/college-football-advanced-stats
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2019/4/22/18508178/when-running-the-dang-ball-goes-wrong-how-mississippi-st-showed-clemson-alabama-rpo-spread
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2019/1/25/18194869/stopping-players-not-formations-the-next-shift-in-defensive-strategy-pattern-matching-belichick
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2019/6/4/18649511/stopping-players-not-formations-part-ii-matchup-quarters-tcu-4-2-5-ruffin-mcneil-texas-oklahoma

WARNING :  what follows is not for the WEAK...the TIMID...the human SHEEP type

But for those interested in actually having the guts to do their best!
     $ maybe less than 5%...with apologies ha

THE PROCESS


1)  GET YOUR MIND RIGHT
      *understand your strengths / LIMITATIONS .....as a handicapper

While it would do my heart good to do THIS to each and every one of ya'....time will simply not allow it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-EN_QplYYU

The problem with knowing / UNDERSTANDING your limits > capabilities?
  * an incredible IGNORANCE of how our subconscious thoughts effect our actions

HINT:  we THINK we are in total control...actually we are in (conscious) control of VERY little

KEY >>>  18-22 yr old CFB players?...in control of NOTHING......therefore their thoughts / actions are HIGHLY variable week to week >> you MUST take psychological factors into account
 

great article:
https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/11863567/betting-five-biggest-cognitive-biases-impair-sports-bettors-most



2)   ESTABLISH HOW GOOD / BAD A TEAM WAS LAST YEAR
        * forget all the media hype > public perception...what makes sense?

3)   FACTOR IN CHANGES
        * the pain in the azz ha transfers / coaching changes

Returning starters?.....the most misunderstood / misused factor ever...
  $  look for PREDICTABILITY.....as that's all starters back means anyway

KEY:   avoid UNCERTAINTY....most key parts gone? >> you have NO IDEA how they will perform = STAY AWAY

 
If you have most key elements back you will (probably) look a whole like what you did last year.....
    *  head coach / QB / both coordinators / majority key contributors on O & D

        $$ maybe the guy replacing the former starter is BETTER?.....perhaps he is a helluva lot worse....   

    
Don't forget assistant coaching changes / change in schemes or philosophies
   $ total players :  got a weak D? > moving to up-tempo could be a gold mine if you catch it before market adjusts   

4)     DIRECTION THE TEAM IS HEADING

   $$$  most likely to improve...stay the same...or get worse?

Most/ many are obvious...the ones that aren't? >>> stay far away


5)     ONCE YOU HAVE ESTABLISHED A CLEAR IDENTITY FOR A TEAM...LOOK FOR SPOTS (in schedule) IN WHICH ARE FAVORABALE / UNFAVORABLE
         * you can do this BEFORE the season begins

         $$$$$  "write' the story for a team of interest...how will their season play out?....AND what NUMBER will you look for?
                 >>>  and WHEN will you be able to get this number?....opening or closing or in between ???    
 

 

It's f'cking June, BA!  ...... believe you arrived in late August for 2018. Great to see you around so early in the offseason!   

 

Roger that...Welcome BA!   Hook em'!  

You're threads should be required reading. 

 

It seems I have the correct mind-set in September...and then October comes and the books start to get some of their money back. So it becomes gambler vs the book...it's personal..."get that money back". It's that damn Lizard-Brain. It formed a million years--give or take--- before the part of the brain that controls patience. The lizard brain needs to be fed by beating the book!

 

If you don't mind, I'd like to add a book to your reading list: "What's Luck Got to Do with It? The History, Mathematics, & Psychology of the Gamblers Illusion" It's such a long title, it has to be educational. Anyway, I'm reading reviews to figure out how to put the point of the book in a sentence: One reviewer wrote "it's not a mathematician telling us we'll never hit a million-dollar jackpot--it's a mathematician telling us why we continue to hope to hit that jackpot."

 

Hope springs eternal. It would be great to pay off the mortgage this year. If we try to do that, we'll be broke by week 3 and living under a bridge in October. (Now I just got to remember this before placing every bet.)

 

Hah. Well, "beat the book this year assassin!" will always sound better than "make a small profit & look for small advantages" but...good luck making a small profit this year. 

Well , Bud.  Now that BC is not associated with SB Nation but
with ESPN , I wonder what the masses are going to do this
season for information. I would expect this to escalate in light of
Sports Betting going " National " and brands like ESPN looking to
profit in the future on the dissemination of Sports wagering info.

I pays for all who Cap sports to make sure thay have alternate
sources for access to the data they need to cap effectively.

BA ,       

Correction  

Honored and privileged to have your posts on covers 

50% at best. He even disappeared for a couple of weeks. He will not win the first week.

Thanks BA!! been looking for better ways of getting info on games than what I've been doing hopefully this helps me win a little more lol

TD -------  1/2 azzed it (really) the last 2 years.....don't enjoy mediocrity > plus need the $$ ha.....BOL buddy......

Brent ---- enjoy your work man BOL.......

UNI ------ tough read and depressing to polyanna types...but worthwhile.........
            $  Michigan a big time 'play on' as I suspect? / Sparty bounceback as Dantonio always does off 'bad' year?


              $ I have no idea >  but my 'regression' style.. leaning towards 8-4ish rather than 12-0 / 11-1....might get their azz kicked week 2....BR suicide to lay points vs Tom tho.......

CUSE LJ --  looking to 'play on' THE CUSE this year....agree?.....don't see Dino allowing a back-slide...how much (if any) drop-off with DeVito?........

WG ------  man would you stop hatin' on my man Bill C ?.....
            $ where else can you go for stats (efficiency) based.....adjusted for SOS?

D-UP ----  good man all the best this year buddy..........


UPS -----  a valid concern off weak 2018 effort.....finished 138-126 / probably my 2nd worst season (with 2007)....and that's with essentially giving up on my 'one unit' plays say week 7-8....but still posting picks to FADE intentionally ha / only play my 'smallers' from here on out (still kept record)

Mickey --  thanks man BOL TY.............     

BA ,   I'm not hatin on your boy Bill C. I am sorry to see him
leave for ESPN.   It's gonna leave a lot of " Cappers " to struggle
this season I think. Kinda like I said in Post # 13, sources that deal
in disseminating Capping information are likely to be bought out
as sports Betting goes National , making capping data harder to
find that someone doesn't charge for.

Blessings and Good Luck this season , Buddy      

BA - Agree about Dino. He has his program in place now. Probably 7-8 wins. The season will look strange to Syr fans who think he wants to throw it 60x a game. Need much more balance...maybe even the RB's will have to lead this year.

Great to see you back this season - and so soon! All the respect in the world to you OG!

BA—great to see you for another season my man! A must read and a source of infinite cfb wisdoms. Not telling you guys anything you don’t already know!! Happy to have back in the grind!