Quote Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:
And no matter what the talent level has been, TCU has beaten Baylor. The 2007 team lost to Wyoming and still managed to beat Baylor...VERY comfortably, in Andy Dalton's first ever start. Yes the BU talent is much better...so is TCU's. The 2007 team was starting two freshmen at DT for most of the season. The current roster is lightyears better top-to-bottom than it was in 07; can't stress that enough.
There is a reason why Texas Tech hired TCU's safeties coach, who honestly did VERY little while he was here (Patterson works the safeties and linebackers over in practice...the safeties coach is really just a spirited observer). TTU wants a 4-2-5, because if executed properly, it's easily the best method of stopping the spread offense.
In the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin had sustained success on the ground because the Badger OL was not only big, but athletic. Guards could pull across the line and catch up to safeties, blowing holes wide open. Baylor is all about speed. TCU has that in spades.
It will always be a bad matchup for BU as long as Briles is running his offense. You mention the losses for TCU...Baylor had 2 guys go in the first round of the NFL Draft, BOTH along the line of scrimmage. Remember how bad the Bears got dominated there last year, with Phil Taylor on D and Danny Watkins on O?
I guess you're correct in that IF it could happen any year, it is this year...but that's an awfully big IF. A program that has experienced zero success against another program pulling off a SU upset?
Also SatNight, not sure where you're getting your info but a freshman is not starting at C. Jr. James Fry should be starting there on Sept. 2. It's possible you might see Sr. Spencer Thompson or Soph. Eric Tausch there as well. By far the biggest question on the offense is LT, where there isn't a true starter and both of the main competitors struggled. But as far as I know, Baylor has no real pass rush threat either.
I think you're looking at anywhere from a 8-14 point TCU win. Not saying it'll be a blowout, which is why this game will very likely be a no-play for me. There should be many more appetizing plays on the board.
very convoluted response to my ONLY point.....Frogs will not have the same emotional edge...they enjoyed LAST year...
so....when handicapping any of their games (esp early)....in addition to the significant losses in talent/leadership.....this should be
considered .....OF COURSE....this does not mean they lose to Baylor ....necessarily
BUT......since you bring them up....let's discuss other issues
Briles may draw plays up in the dirt....but not really a simple wild ass spread guy....
QUICK.....who ran the ball more EFFECTIVELY last year....TCU or Baylor?.....Frogs right............WRONG
facing the nations
49th toughest schedule of rush D's.....(Steele)
Bears av 5.4/rush....5.25 vs winning teams
Frogs faced the
93rd toughest run D's..... av bout the same ..5.36....but 4.8 vs winning teams......so slight yes...but Bears were better...
* Bears in fact very balanced.....running 468X....passing 471X
Frogs 598 plays rushing....331 passing
* Bears have 8/10 OL back...so while losing a star in Watkins.....should be as good or better...they do lose leading rusher Finley....so may not run as well....
* DL returns 8 guys that have started...so while losing Phil (Houdini) Taylor.....who was actually decent last year....but FAR from being a dominant player ...... should see no decline
The improvement in TCU teams from 2008 to 2010 was due... not to their defense....but to offense.....as they steadily improved each year....largely due to effectiveness of Dalton
* DEFENSE ?....peaked in 2008.....gotten slightly worse each year (even though facing OU and Stanford in '08)....
yds /rush....1.7 > 2.6 > 3.3.....yds/play....3.8 > 3.9 > 4.2....
* with 5 starters or so back.....we can safely project a (probable) further decline this year.....difference being.... instead of an offense showing a large improvement ....as we have seen each year since '08.....>> a (probable) significant decrease in production
couldn't run .....or stop the run vs Wisky because they were getting their ass whipped......won game largely due to play calling genius Chryst....possibly having wager on Frogs himself...
* only teams having fewer yds rushing than TCU (vs Wisky)...were Austin Peay and S Jose St.....on defense ....Purdue.....Iowa...Ohio St...Mich St and Ariz St held Wisky to fewer rushing yards...(mighty S Jose St also but doesn't really count)
* Frogs won because they WANTED it more.....reinforcing my point.....Wisky just kinda showed up.......didn't they?
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
thorpe
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