week 1

Went 2-1 with the Hoos and the Tarheels winning and the Rainbow Warriors blowing the cover in the last minute.

Cavaliers looked incredible and keep in mind that teams that outrush yard their opponent when the line is between -14 and +14 points cover around 70% of the time, and when teams outrush attempt their opponent the cover percentage is very slightly less than that.  

Is there any doubt that the Wahoos are gonna run the ball this season?  They'll be covering their fair share of games this season in playing 1940s style football.

AND, the big favorites had some problems.  Home favorites over 24 points that will be a dog their next game in early season games cover only 43% of the time, which related to the Seminoles burning people's bankroll this past weekend.

Query text.....line <-24 and n:D and week < 5 and game number < 3 ......197-262-10 ATS, 42.9% (-2.4).....using gimmethedog.

Away dogs of less than 13 points who will be a favorite their next two games before game number 3 have covered 62% of the time.....269-165-11 ATS (+2.7)....average line in those games +5.77......teams qualifying this week....Liberty, Clemson, Toledo.

Those teams win 40.4% of the time, and if we estimate that the moneyline for those dogs will be +195, the return on investment for taking those underdogs straight up is 19%, which shows no real advantage over taking those teams on the pointspread.

Query text.....AD and site and game number < 3 and line < 13 and n:F and nn:F......gimmethedog

Plays:

1)  San Jose +3

2)  Toledo +9'

3)  Colorado +6'

4)  Colorado/Georgia Tech UNDER 51

5)  Baylor +7'

6)  Baylor/Auburn UNDER 58'

7)  Liberty +7

8)  Liberty/J Madison UNDER 51

9)  Boston College +7

10) Boston College/Cinci UNDER 49

11) Colorado State/Wyoming UNDER 46

Yes sir…unders were def the theme of week 0…. And the usc’s and Florida st games… said favorites are taking it easy.     USC has most returning players in nation I read….    Appreciate your time n efforts. 

@Indigo999

 Looks good, BOL 

@Indigo999

 Nice card I like A few especially San Jose state and thanks for thed insight 999

Thanks guys and gals.....looking at ACC futures....the Virginia Cavaliers are at +1400 to win the ACC....they avoid Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville this season.....they could be unbeaten when going to SMU in mid-October, where right now they're predicted to be about a 7 point underdog.....if one pulls the trigger, you would likely hedge on the Mustangs to win that one straight up.....with no harm, no foul if  SMU were to win.  

SMU goes to Louisville and Notre Dame and plays Virginia Tech at home this season.....a much harder road than the Cavs.....even if they beat Virginia they won't get in the ACC Championship game with more losses than Virginia.

Assuming that the Miami Hurricanes get to the grand finale is not a given, as they have consistently stubbed their toe for the last 20 years, and have never won the ACC Championship.  Of course if they do and met the Cavaliers one can hedge then too.

Thinking about it.......