week 1

Went 2-1 with the Hoos and the Tarheels winning and the Rainbow Warriors blowing the cover in the last minute.

Cavaliers looked incredible and keep in mind that teams that outrush yard their opponent when the line is between -14 and +14 points cover around 70% of the time, and when teams outrush attempt their opponent the cover percentage is very slightly less than that.  

Is there any doubt that the Wahoos are gonna run the ball this season?  They'll be covering their fair share of games this season in playing 1940s style football.

AND, the big favorites had some problems.  Home favorites over 24 points that will be a dog their next game in early season games cover only 43% of the time, which related to the Seminoles burning people's bankroll this past weekend.

Query text.....line <-24 and n:D and week < 5 and game number < 3 ......197-262-10 ATS, 42.9% (-2.4).....using gimmethedog.

Away dogs of less than 13 points who will be a favorite their next two games before game number 3 have covered 62% of the time.....269-165-11 ATS (+2.7)....average line in those games +5.77......teams qualifying this week....Liberty, Clemson, Toledo.

Those teams win 40.4% of the time, and if we estimate that the moneyline for those dogs will be +195, the return on investment for taking those underdogs straight up is 19%, which shows no real advantage over taking those teams on the pointspread.

Query text.....AD and site and game number < 3 and line < 13 and n:F and nn:F......gimmethedog

Plays:

1)  San Jose +3

2)  Toledo +9'

3)  Colorado +6'

4)  Colorado/Georgia Tech UNDER 51

5)  Baylor +7'

6)  Baylor/Auburn UNDER 58'

7)  Liberty +7

8)  Liberty/J Madison UNDER 51

9)  Boston College +7

10) Boston College/Cinci UNDER 49

11) Colorado State/Wyoming UNDER 46

Yes sir…unders were def the theme of week 0…. And the usc’s and Florida st games… said favorites are taking it easy.     USC has most returning players in nation I read….    Appreciate your time n efforts. 

@Indigo999

 Looks good, BOL 

@Indigo999

 Nice card I like A few especially San Jose state and thanks for thed insight 999

Thanks guys and gals.....looking at ACC futures....the Virginia Cavaliers are at +1400 to win the ACC....they avoid Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville this season.....they could be unbeaten when going to SMU in mid-October, where right now they're predicted to be about a 7 point underdog.....if one pulls the trigger, you would likely hedge on the Mustangs to win that one straight up.....with no harm, no foul if  SMU were to win.  

SMU goes to Louisville and Notre Dame and plays Virginia Tech at home this season.....a much harder road than the Cavs.....even if they beat Virginia they won't get in the ACC Championship game with more losses than Virginia.

Assuming that the Miami Hurricanes get to the grand finale is not a given, as they have consistently stubbed their toe for the last 20 years, and have never won the ACC Championship.  Of course if they do and met the Cavaliers one can hedge then too.

Thinking about it.......

Here's an interesting angle......

Western Kentucky is an away favorite this week at Nevada....their next two games, at Georgia and at Indiana they will be at least 30 point dogs.

Teams that are favored by less than 10 points in September, that will be at least 15 point dogs their next two games have gone 9-45-2 ATS, losing to the pointspread by an average of 11.2 points/game, and losing outright 67.9% of the time, including losing SUATS 6 out of 7 games as an away favorite.

query text....month = 9 and F and n:line > 15 and nn:line > 15 and line>-10 and division = FBS and site.......killersports

Michigan State is a home favorite to Toledo this week.....in their game after next they play at Notre Dame and using Sagarin power ratings they are projected to be around a 30 point underdog.

Small home favorites that will be at least a 20 point underdog in at least one of their two next games have performed badly against the pointspread,  covering only 37% of the time before week 6, losing to the spread by an average of 3.6 points/game, and losing straight up 43.7% of the time.

Query text......HF and (n:line > 20 or nn:line > 20) and game number < 6 and line > -13                                  killersports 

I can see Toledo but W Ky has 2 ranked teams ahead which effects your listed query.  

month = 9 and F and no:rank<20 and nno:rank<20 and line>-10 and division = FBS and site

and if those teams are at least 15 point dogs in the next two games as the Hilltoppers will be, those teams have been 3-6 ATS, losing against the spread by an average of -6.1 points/game.

What is your point?.....if you don't like the data, then by all means lay off, or play Western Kentucky......

@Indigo999

 Not negative towards you.  I like to discuss some of my findings.  The last thing I want to do is iratate and or create a negative experience between us.   

Point is alot of the data results are with unranked teams ahead.  Wky has ranked teams ahead so while it's still relevant and at 3-6, and 66% success rate the results are limited.  College football queries I find more difficult to sort and remain consistent.  I have more success after week 5.  I am trying to get better early season (weeks) results.

Again im just communicating with you.  I love and support what you're doing.  You bring, share new and fresh angles and ideas. 

I will share this premise with you.  

College Football has a lot of past successful teams that are not currently able to leap these spreads.

Week 0 has once again proven that 

USC and FSU hit that list. Most notably FSU as they have been pretty average the last few seasons and are not ranked. USC is ranked but has not shown the ability to stay highly ranked and unranked some weeks In recent history.  Until USC can elevate i will always look to take advantage of their recent poor ATS record. 

This week one of my targetsis Florida Gators. See if they can elevate?  History says the Gators fail. 

Anyways I do appreciate your mind and efforts.  Thats the reason I join your thread.

Best wishes. 

Ok, then,....our approaches are slightly different...yours is more right brained, and mine, more left brained.

I am all for sharing, and in this forum you and I are sharing methodologies,  which about 5% of this forum do.  I wouldn't expect those methodologies to be alike and you wouldn't either.

You came across as  "you are wrong", or "you can't be serious!", and in life we have things that will trigger us, and you hit the trigger bullseye.

So, I appreciate your comeback, it's all good.

Appreciation and greatfulness go along way.  Im down with those too.

Best wishes this week and let's find a way 

Here>>>>

Opening Weekday games game number one.  The only thing that's not congruent with other seasons, these games are in September.  Does August or September make a difference?  I think game 1 is most powerful for unders. 

https://killersports.com/query?token=eNpLT8xNVcgrzU1KLVKwVTBUSMxLUXADkymJlYq2wYklpUVAFkLENz8PhR9cisoPT03JSy2GCRWnJhbn59kZGRiagvn5VimZZZnFmfl5tm5OwWChkoJgjXBNG0MDME_XxC4nMy_VTtfYVC25oDI7tdLWNDE0xyk3IjDDoNwIABNcObM%3D&filter=NCAAFB&_qt=games&init=1

like it? Fine good use it. 

Too descriptive or not to your liking no problem too

Plays:

1)  San Jose +3

2)  Toledo +9'

3)  Colorado +6'..........................................winner

4)  Colorado/Georgia Tech UNDER 51............winner

5)  Baylor +7'

6)  Baylor/Auburn UNDER 58'

7)  Liberty +7

8)  Liberty/J Madison UNDER 51

9)  Boston College +7

10) Boston College/Cinci UNDER 49

11) Colorado State/Wyoming UNDER 46

Adding....

12)  Tulsa +13'

13)  Nevada +105

Colorado gets the Dubya.....followed the blueprint of Virginia, running the other team into the ground......too bad the quarterback is terrible for them.....I'll look to back them as small dogs this season.

Georgia Tech, who lost their stud quarterback and their offensive coordinator, looks like a big-time fade this season.  I'll be surprised if they win more than 5 games.

Good job on Colorado.  Those side and total sweeps are the best. 

1)  San Jose +3..........................................winner

2)  Toledo +9'............................................loser.....(will count as a loss, though I did get the Rockets at +10 yesterday)

3)  Colorado +6'..........................................winner

4)  Colorado/Georgia Tech UNDER 51............winner

5)  Baylor +7'

6)  Baylor/Auburn UNDER 58'

7)  Liberty +7

8)  Liberty/J Madison UNDER 51

9)  Boston College +7

10) Boston College/Cinci UNDER 49

11) Colorado State/Wyoming UNDER 46

12)  Tulsa +13'

13)  Nevada -104

Eastern Michigan looks like a 4 win team this season.....they got a defensive touchdown and not much of anything else the second half.,,,,no real run game as usual, and no game breakers on offense.  They usually are stellar as underdogs and bad as favs.    Should be about a 17 point away underdog at Michigan State next week and I won't be biting on that line.

1)  San Jose +3..........................................winner

 2)  Toledo +9'............................................loser.....(will count as a loss, though I did get the Rockets at +10 yesterday)

3)  Colorado +6'..........................................winner

4)  Colorado/Georgia Tech UNDER 51............winner

5)  Baylor +7'............................................winner

6)  Baylor/Auburn UNDER 58'......................winner

7)  Liberty +7...........................................tie

8)  Liberty/J Madison UNDER 51..................winner

9)  Boston College +7...............................loser

10) Boston College/Cinci UNDER 49............tie

11) Colorado State/Wyoming UNDER 46

12)  Tulsa +13'.......................................winner

13)  Nevada -104

@Indigo999

Keep it going !!  

1)  San Jose +3..........................................winner

2)  Toledo +9'............................................loser.....(will count as a loss, though I did get the Rockets at +10 yesterday)

3)  Colorado +6'..........................................winner

4)  Colorado/Georgia Tech UNDER 51............winner

5)  Baylor +7'............................................winner

6)  Baylor/Auburn UNDER 58'......................winner

7)  Liberty +7...........................................tie

8)  Liberty/J Madison UNDER 51..................winner

9)  Boston College +7...............................loser

10) Boston College/Cinci UNDER 49............tie

11) Colorado State/Wyoming UNDER 46....loser

12)  Tulsa +13'.......................................winner

13)  Nevada -104...................................winner

8-3-2 for the day......10-4-2 season-to-date.....

Watched the end of the Michigan game....feel bad for Western Michigan....sick feeling when you get screwed.

Played in championship church league softball game once, so in theory everything should be on the up-and-up, as we all know everyone in church is pious and honest.

No umpire showed up, so a guy from the opposing team's church volunteered(?!) to umpire.

Last inning we're up a run with two outs with a couple of men on base and their last batter hits into an out, so we win right?.... we're celebrating....except the umpire said the pitch was made before he was "ready" and we have to replay the at-bat.

I am so mad I go off the field....our pastor tells me to go back out, which I regret doing now,  and then of course the next pitch their guy hits a double and we supposedly lose......lol.

Yes… that was sure disappointing for the broncos… they deserved the victory…. Accountability… what to do now…fraud is fraud… I’m sure Michigan will spin it another way… but the clock ‘we’ were looking at… said zero…. Good picks this week sir… I benefitted some …tip my cap.   

Ja, sure, thinking this might be a pretty good year.