These wins pay for those losses, the juice is profit.
Sometimes the book takes a hit on a big game or swing/surprise...But many times they don't. There is a lot of money played and by and large, the public do not make good/sound betting decisions.
My 2 cents.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheFavoriteDog:
These wins pay for those losses, the juice is profit.
Sometimes the book takes a hit on a big game or swing/surprise...But many times they don't. There is a lot of money played and by and large, the public do not make good/sound betting decisions.
It's a well known fact that books will take a position on a game, not always by choice either....however, generally speaking they're trying to get close to 50/50 action...
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It's a well known fact that books will take a position on a game, not always by choice either....however, generally speaking they're trying to get close to 50/50 action...
It's a well known fact that books will take a position on a game, not always by choice either....however, generally speaking they're trying to get close to 50/50 action...
that! Thank you!...sometimes they cant avoid it...its going to be very hard to get exactly 50/50 action BUT IN MY OPINION it doesnt make sense for them to purposely try to get all money on one side
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Quote Originally Posted by tboon:
It's a well known fact that books will take a position on a game, not always by choice either....however, generally speaking they're trying to get close to 50/50 action...
that! Thank you!...sometimes they cant avoid it...its going to be very hard to get exactly 50/50 action BUT IN MY OPINION it doesnt make sense for them to purposely try to get all money on one side
I didn’t want to call the thread originator out, but you are exactly correct…The Wise Men in Vegas manipulate line movement both ways…Mickey Tettleton Jr. (The Gamer) gets in done tonight in prime time and this game fly’s over the Total…
I dont want to call you out but I HIGHLY doubt you have any reason to believe this other than your own brain telling you that is how it works.
I dont understand what makes you think this way. If that was true why wouldnt you just bet against the line movement every game and be a millionaire?? Because no body knows the outcome of the game thats why. Including Vegas.
Are you telling me that if BG wins tonight then your theory will be busted? Because line movement alone will not tell you who is going to win the game...
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Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
I didn’t want to call the thread originator out, but you are exactly correct…The Wise Men in Vegas manipulate line movement both ways…Mickey Tettleton Jr. (The Gamer) gets in done tonight in prime time and this game fly’s over the Total…
I dont want to call you out but I HIGHLY doubt you have any reason to believe this other than your own brain telling you that is how it works.
I dont understand what makes you think this way. If that was true why wouldnt you just bet against the line movement every game and be a millionaire?? Because no body knows the outcome of the game thats why. Including Vegas.
Are you telling me that if BG wins tonight then your theory will be busted? Because line movement alone will not tell you who is going to win the game...
The ONLY reason lines move is because vegas is trying to get 50/50 action and they have lopsided money on one side (BG) so they need to lower the line to get more money on the other side (Ohio).
Vegas does not try to purposely get a lot of money on one side because they dont know what the outcome will be either (your username might mean you disagree with this)
The people that are betting BIG money on the underdog can be wrong and are wrong a lot, but that doesnt mean vegas wins or losses because of this. It is usally all 50/50 money and vegas wins every time because of juice. Simple as that.
[/Quote
Very naive statement my friend…Bobcats have 80% of all the money riding on them now…With your logic, they are lowering the line to attract more Bobcat dollars?You have the concept down pat, but you aren’t applying good reasoning…
Don’t be fooled, the Wise Men in Vegas know the outcome of each game 90% of the time before the intial whistle (sometimes, not all the time, the fix is in - history has shown us players, coaches and referees will take a suitcase full of money in New York minute to alter the outcome of a game).Sometimes the public is right i.e. Arizona State/Oregon, Wake Forest/Clemson, USC/Oregon (few recent plays that come to mind).Something to think about…
you, my friend, have just proved to me your an idiot. Where ever you got that 80% number (there are multiple sites) are talking about the PERCENTAGE of bets coming in on that side. Let me explain for you.
When you look at a game that says:
Side 1: 20%
Side 2: 80%
It is saying that out of all the bets coming in on that game about 80% of those bets are on side 2 and 20% of those bets are on side 1.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PERCENTAGE OF MONEY ON THE GAME.
If you think any book ANY BOOK would ever release their money split you are a moron. A book would never tell anyone how much money they have on a certain side. Hence all the discussion of if books take sides. No one knows because nobody knows the books money splits.
Please, next time do some more research before you call someone naive and make yourself look stupid
0
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
Quote Originally Posted by kn0wn:
there is no such this as fake line movement.
There is no such thing as trap lines.
The ONLY reason lines move is because vegas is trying to get 50/50 action and they have lopsided money on one side (BG) so they need to lower the line to get more money on the other side (Ohio).
Vegas does not try to purposely get a lot of money on one side because they dont know what the outcome will be either (your username might mean you disagree with this)
The people that are betting BIG money on the underdog can be wrong and are wrong a lot, but that doesnt mean vegas wins or losses because of this. It is usally all 50/50 money and vegas wins every time because of juice. Simple as that.
[/Quote
Very naive statement my friend…Bobcats have 80% of all the money riding on them now…With your logic, they are lowering the line to attract more Bobcat dollars?You have the concept down pat, but you aren’t applying good reasoning…
Don’t be fooled, the Wise Men in Vegas know the outcome of each game 90% of the time before the intial whistle (sometimes, not all the time, the fix is in - history has shown us players, coaches and referees will take a suitcase full of money in New York minute to alter the outcome of a game).Sometimes the public is right i.e. Arizona State/Oregon, Wake Forest/Clemson, USC/Oregon (few recent plays that come to mind).Something to think about…
you, my friend, have just proved to me your an idiot. Where ever you got that 80% number (there are multiple sites) are talking about the PERCENTAGE of bets coming in on that side. Let me explain for you.
When you look at a game that says:
Side 1: 20%
Side 2: 80%
It is saying that out of all the bets coming in on that game about 80% of those bets are on side 2 and 20% of those bets are on side 1.
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PERCENTAGE OF MONEY ON THE GAME.
If you think any book ANY BOOK would ever release their money split you are a moron. A book would never tell anyone how much money they have on a certain side. Hence all the discussion of if books take sides. No one knows because nobody knows the books money splits.
Please, next time do some more research before you call someone naive and make yourself look stupid
The ONLY reason lines move is because vegas is trying to get 50/50 action and they have lopsided money on one side (BG) so they need to lower the line to get more money on the other side (Ohio).
Vegas does not try to purposely get a lot of money on one side because they dont know what the outcome will be either (your username might mean you disagree with this)
The people that are betting BIG money on the underdog can be wrong and are wrong a lot, but that doesnt mean vegas wins or losses because of this. It is usally all 50/50 money and vegas wins every time because of juice. Simple as that.
[/Quote
Very naive statement my friend… Bobcats have 80% of all the money riding on them now… With your logic, they are lowering the line to attract more Bobcat dollars?You have the concept down pat, but you aren’t applying good reasoning…
Don’t be fooled, the Wise Men in Vegas know the outcome of each game 90% of the time before the intial whistle (sometimes, not all the time, the fix is in - history has shown us players, coaches and referees will take a suitcase full of money in New York minute to alter the outcome of a game).Sometimes the public is right i.e. Arizona State/Oregon, Wake Forest/Clemson, USC/Oregon (few recent plays that come to mind).Something to think about…
wrong, with my logic 80% OF BETS are on Ohio but yet the line is still dropping. Why? Logic would tell you that they want more money on Ohio. Why would they want that if 80% of people are already bettin on Ohio? Because BIG money is coming in on BG.
That is what all the discussion is about man, if this is really how it works or not. People can argue that those sites have fake numbers and all that but this is what logic would tell you.
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Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
Quote Originally Posted by kn0wn:
there is no such this as fake line movement.
There is no such thing as trap lines.
The ONLY reason lines move is because vegas is trying to get 50/50 action and they have lopsided money on one side (BG) so they need to lower the line to get more money on the other side (Ohio).
Vegas does not try to purposely get a lot of money on one side because they dont know what the outcome will be either (your username might mean you disagree with this)
The people that are betting BIG money on the underdog can be wrong and are wrong a lot, but that doesnt mean vegas wins or losses because of this. It is usally all 50/50 money and vegas wins every time because of juice. Simple as that.
[/Quote
Very naive statement my friend… Bobcats have 80% of all the money riding on them now… With your logic, they are lowering the line to attract more Bobcat dollars?You have the concept down pat, but you aren’t applying good reasoning…
Don’t be fooled, the Wise Men in Vegas know the outcome of each game 90% of the time before the intial whistle (sometimes, not all the time, the fix is in - history has shown us players, coaches and referees will take a suitcase full of money in New York minute to alter the outcome of a game).Sometimes the public is right i.e. Arizona State/Oregon, Wake Forest/Clemson, USC/Oregon (few recent plays that come to mind).Something to think about…
wrong, with my logic 80% OF BETS are on Ohio but yet the line is still dropping. Why? Logic would tell you that they want more money on Ohio. Why would they want that if 80% of people are already bettin on Ohio? Because BIG money is coming in on BG.
That is what all the discussion is about man, if this is really how it works or not. People can argue that those sites have fake numbers and all that but this is what logic would tell you.
Games like this I dont pay attention to all this Ohio talk. I simply cant put money on a team that struggled with UMASS, trailed buffalo and played awful . The defense is weak compared to previous years. My point is i dont see the stats, figures, info to back any kind of Ohio play here at all. Im seeing GOY picks on Ohio and my question is why and where is the writeup.
Good luck Known. On BG beginning to the end
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Games like this I dont pay attention to all this Ohio talk. I simply cant put money on a team that struggled with UMASS, trailed buffalo and played awful . The defense is weak compared to previous years. My point is i dont see the stats, figures, info to back any kind of Ohio play here at all. Im seeing GOY picks on Ohio and my question is why and where is the writeup.
I'm just trying to help you become a better prognosticator, but you want to start throwing around insults…As my Father told me years ago, some people just ain’t going to listen so stop wasting your voice…Good luck with your plays this evening Sir.
Hey by all means if your trying to help thats fine, but calling me naive for reasons that you were wrong about anyway isnt the way to do it....
0
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
I'm just trying to help you become a better prognosticator, but you want to start throwing around insults…As my Father told me years ago, some people just ain’t going to listen so stop wasting your voice…Good luck with your plays this evening Sir.
Hey by all means if your trying to help thats fine, but calling me naive for reasons that you were wrong about anyway isnt the way to do it....
I'm just trying to help you become a better prognosticator, but you want to start throwing around insults…As my Father told me years ago, some people just ain’t going to listen so stop wasting your voice…Good luck with your plays this evening Sir.
I will listen if you can explain to me your right and im wrong?? I am definitely listening now....
0
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
I'm just trying to help you become a better prognosticator, but you want to start throwing around insults…As my Father told me years ago, some people just ain’t going to listen so stop wasting your voice…Good luck with your plays this evening Sir.
I will listen if you can explain to me your right and im wrong?? I am definitely listening now....
The ONLY reason lines move is because vegas is trying to get 50/50 action and they have lopsided money on one side (BG) so they need to lower the line to get more money on the other side (Ohio).
Vegas does not try to purposely get a lot of money on one side because they dont know what the outcome will be either (your username might mean you disagree with this)
The people that are betting BIG money on the underdog can be wrong and are wrong a lot, but that doesnt mean vegas wins or losses because of this. It is usally all 50/50 money and vegas wins every time because of juice. Simple as that.
[/Quote
Very naive statement my friend…Bobcats have 80% of all the money riding on them now…With your logic, they are lowering the line to attract more Bobcat dollars?You have the concept down pat, but you aren’t applying good reasoning…
Don’t be fooled, the Wise Men in Vegas know the outcome of each game 90% of the time before the intial whistle (sometimes, not all the time, the fix is in - history has shown us players, coaches and referees will take a suitcase full of money in New York minute to alter the outcome of a game).Sometimes the public is right i.e. Arizona State/Oregon, Wake Forest/Clemson, USC/Oregon (few recent plays that come to mind).Something to think about…
LOL
0
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
Quote Originally Posted by kn0wn:
there is no such this as fake line movement.
There is no such thing as trap lines.
The ONLY reason lines move is because vegas is trying to get 50/50 action and they have lopsided money on one side (BG) so they need to lower the line to get more money on the other side (Ohio).
Vegas does not try to purposely get a lot of money on one side because they dont know what the outcome will be either (your username might mean you disagree with this)
The people that are betting BIG money on the underdog can be wrong and are wrong a lot, but that doesnt mean vegas wins or losses because of this. It is usally all 50/50 money and vegas wins every time because of juice. Simple as that.
[/Quote
Very naive statement my friend…Bobcats have 80% of all the money riding on them now…With your logic, they are lowering the line to attract more Bobcat dollars?You have the concept down pat, but you aren’t applying good reasoning…
Don’t be fooled, the Wise Men in Vegas know the outcome of each game 90% of the time before the intial whistle (sometimes, not all the time, the fix is in - history has shown us players, coaches and referees will take a suitcase full of money in New York minute to alter the outcome of a game).Sometimes the public is right i.e. Arizona State/Oregon, Wake Forest/Clemson, USC/Oregon (few recent plays that come to mind).Something to think about…
kn0wn, first off- I agree w/ you almost 100% in terms of line moves & "fixes" & pre-determined outcomes. Most of this talk is simply ridiculous. But, consider this scenerio:
Team A is playing Team B
Joe's SportsBook opens w/ Team B -3. From early on, the public hammers Team B w/ hundreds of small wagers. The book's position becomes uneven & they move the line to 3.5 to balance the action. Immedialtely, runners for respected bettors start placing 10 dime wagers on Team A. The book has succeeded in moving towards a balance, but fears a run of "smart money" on Team A. They move the line back to 3 and allow the public to hammer away. They have no choice but to take a position. They're stuck w/ lop-sided action on Team B, but consider it better to be pitted against the at-large betting public than against whomever they consider to be "sharp" or "smart" money.
I agree that their goal is not to outsmart people and to gamble on games themselves, balanced action IS the perfect world result. But they don't always get it, and SOMETIMES we can glean something from how much they move (or don't move) a line.
This is almost purely a devil's advocate position, I DO agree w/ you in almost all cases. Thanks, GL
0
kn0wn, first off- I agree w/ you almost 100% in terms of line moves & "fixes" & pre-determined outcomes. Most of this talk is simply ridiculous. But, consider this scenerio:
Team A is playing Team B
Joe's SportsBook opens w/ Team B -3. From early on, the public hammers Team B w/ hundreds of small wagers. The book's position becomes uneven & they move the line to 3.5 to balance the action. Immedialtely, runners for respected bettors start placing 10 dime wagers on Team A. The book has succeeded in moving towards a balance, but fears a run of "smart money" on Team A. They move the line back to 3 and allow the public to hammer away. They have no choice but to take a position. They're stuck w/ lop-sided action on Team B, but consider it better to be pitted against the at-large betting public than against whomever they consider to be "sharp" or "smart" money.
I agree that their goal is not to outsmart people and to gamble on games themselves, balanced action IS the perfect world result. But they don't always get it, and SOMETIMES we can glean something from how much they move (or don't move) a line.
This is almost purely a devil's advocate position, I DO agree w/ you in almost all cases. Thanks, GL
kn0wn, first off- I agree w/ you almost 100% in terms of line moves & "fixes" & pre-determined outcomes. Most of this talk is simply ridiculous. But, consider this scenerio:
Team A is playing Team B
Joe's SportsBook opens w/ Team B -3. From early on, the public hammers Team B w/ hundreds of small wagers. The book's position becomes uneven & they move the line to 3.5 to balance the action. Immedialtely, runners for respected bettors start placing 10 dime wagers on Team A. The book has succeeded in moving towards a balance, but fears a run of "smart money" on Team A. They move the line back to 3 and allow the public to hammer away. They have no choice but to take a position. They're stuck w/ lop-sided action on Team B, but consider it better to be pitted against the at-large betting public than against whomever they consider to be "sharp" or "smart" money.
I agree that their goal is not to outsmart people and to gamble on games themselves, balanced action IS the perfect world result. But they don't always get it, and SOMETIMES we can glean something from how much they move (or don't move) a line.
This is almost purely a devil's advocate position, I DO agree w/ you in almost all cases. Thanks, GL
Very true sir
I like your way of thinking and def. agree with this. I think this does happen too. Like you said, sometimes taking a position is unavoidable and I can definitely see that they would want to be lopsided towards to generally betting "public" vs who they consider "sharps" when this happens.
Good point my man
0
Quote Originally Posted by c_had38:
kn0wn, first off- I agree w/ you almost 100% in terms of line moves & "fixes" & pre-determined outcomes. Most of this talk is simply ridiculous. But, consider this scenerio:
Team A is playing Team B
Joe's SportsBook opens w/ Team B -3. From early on, the public hammers Team B w/ hundreds of small wagers. The book's position becomes uneven & they move the line to 3.5 to balance the action. Immedialtely, runners for respected bettors start placing 10 dime wagers on Team A. The book has succeeded in moving towards a balance, but fears a run of "smart money" on Team A. They move the line back to 3 and allow the public to hammer away. They have no choice but to take a position. They're stuck w/ lop-sided action on Team B, but consider it better to be pitted against the at-large betting public than against whomever they consider to be "sharp" or "smart" money.
I agree that their goal is not to outsmart people and to gamble on games themselves, balanced action IS the perfect world result. But they don't always get it, and SOMETIMES we can glean something from how much they move (or don't move) a line.
This is almost purely a devil's advocate position, I DO agree w/ you in almost all cases. Thanks, GL
Very true sir
I like your way of thinking and def. agree with this. I think this does happen too. Like you said, sometimes taking a position is unavoidable and I can definitely see that they would want to be lopsided towards to generally betting "public" vs who they consider "sharps" when this happens.
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