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***UCLA @ Oregon...Large Play***

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by soonabooma:

The under looks good, I don't know why considering how explosive Oregon is on offense, but it just seems like overall they should stay under the number.   But I think the best play in this game might just be Oregon -14, 1st half.   UCLA is NOT Stanford, and this is a totally different game.  It's Oregon at home on a Thursday night when all eyes will be watching.   Keyword.....HOME, the Ducks are a different beast at home,  UCLA could very well get the backdoor cover, but I'm guessing Oregon will be up pretty big at half.    GL   



boom
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by tt62836:



We have three guys who think Oregon will cover the total by themselves...that's scary.
UCLA isn't the Pittsburg Steelers, but they also aren't the freaking school for the blind. "This is Division I football" You guys should consider the alternate line Oregon -55 @ +155

 

UCLA is not the Pittsburgh Steelers, you are right, but they also are not the Stanford Cardinal and see how Oregon spotted them what 17 points and then just destroyed them.... this is Autzen Stadium TT..... on a Thursday night when the students had all day to drink and get ready..... you also have to realize that Oregon needed that bye week much more than UCLA did. They will be well rested....

Now I definitely do not see them scoring 60 points but I am looking at a Oregon 42  UCLA 21  score with the Bruins covering +25 and the over

 

BOL THO 

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by wilk704:

 

UCLA is not the Pittsburgh Steelers, you are right, but they also are not the Stanford Cardinal and see how Oregon spotted them what 17 points and then just destroyed them.... this is Autzen Stadium TT..... on a Thursday night when the students had all day to drink and get ready..... you also have to realize that Oregon needed that bye week much more than UCLA did. They will be well rested....

Now I definitely do not see them scoring 60 points but I am looking at a Oregon 42  UCLA 21  score with the Bruins covering +25 and the over

 

BOL THO 



I realize that Oregon is rested. I realize that Oregon is playing at home on a Thrs night and the students will be drunk. But do you not think all of that is already factored in to the both the line and total? You're not giving novel news, right? How do you quantify a team being motivated? Do you think the total was made with the impression that Oregon will play unmotivated with a docile crowd? Just by saying this is a Thrs home game and the fans will be drunk doesn't convince that the right side of the total is the over. Good luck either way...just saying, motivation does not automatically = Over
 
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Posted: #29
As a side note, if both offenses have their way with each other and perform to their peak average performance, I have capped a 45-19 Oregon win

If both defenses have their way with each other and perform to their peak average performance, I have capped a 30-14 Oregon win.

Therefore, I have 64 as the top-end of the total and 44 as the bottom-end of the total.

However, the most likely outcome I am projecting is a 37-16 Oregon win. 53 points and Under the total of 61.5

Good luck to all.
 
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Posted: #30
tt - seems to me you obsessed with stats.  Honest question... how long have you been at sports wagering, for real cash?

best of luck buddy, there is plenty of room for us to not see things the same way.  That is why there is a betting line, with roughly even action on both sides.  I cannot see it any other way than the ducks scoring pretty much at will, while knifing into the interior offense of UCLA making their first downs few and far between = blowout.

speed kills, and the ducks have more speed than any and every team in the country.
 
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Posted: #31
alright guys i am a diehard bruin fan and I myself will be on the oregona ducks tomorrow, ucla will be overwhelmed with the crowd in autzen stadium . also i believe ucla will be playing with their backup QB rich breheaut and let me tell u this guy is NOT a D1 QB and of everyone on the team this guy will be the most overwhelmed of all . i actually dont see ucla scoring more than 14 with this guy at the helm and oregon will easily torch ucla D for at least 49 pts. so i see a final somewhere in the neighborhood of 56-10
 
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Posted: #32
can anybody say Oregon gets style points?

however, what is this i am hearing about Ducks QB is questionable or something? can somebody fill me in please.

-Chef
 
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Posted: #33
Yeah, where is the deal with the Ducks QB?

I knew the Bruins had issues with their QB, maybe it was a typo?
 
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Posted: #34
UCLA Outright!

 
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Posted: #35
Alright here's the deal.  Whoever said Oregon's QB was doubtful is full of shit. 

Oregon QB Darron Thomas received a clean bill of health late last week after nursing a bruised shoulder suffered in a win over Washington State two weeks ago.

https://arizona.247sports.com/Article/Pac-10-Preview-Week-8-Football-3640

The uncertainty swirling around the status of UCLA's starting quarterback continues Wednesday with word that further testing was performed on Kevin Prince's injured knee.

Prince underwent an MRI earlier in the week, and the QB attempted to quash reports that the current knee injury is related to an ACL tear he suffered while in high school.

However, the Los Angeles Times reports that Prince has undergone a second MRI on his right knee.  This MRI was performed by the same doctor who repaired Prince's high school injury.

https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/10/20/ucla-qb-princes-status-for-no-1-ducks-placed-further-in-doubt/
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by radiotokyo:

Yeah, where is the deal with the Ducks QB?

I knew the Bruins had issues with their QB, maybe it was a typo?


"Oregon saw its starting quarterback Darron Thomas leave in its last game against Washington State with a shoulder injury. But Thomas reportedly showed no signs of the shoulder giving him problems at practice this week and is expected to start.

Unlike the Bruins, the Ducks do have a seasoned backup in senior Nate Costa. He played well after taking over for Thomas against Washington State, completing 13 of 15 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown.

Also unlike the Bruins, Oregon’s quarterback will be surrounded by a bevy of offensive weapons, most notably running back LaMichael James"
 
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Posted: #37
before Oregon put Az. St. away they were in a struggle. Their defense was not particularly impressive that game but their offense saved them.  UCLA looked very good upsetting TX on the road, so be careful here.
 
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Posted: #38
Ducks put up 55.
 
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Posted: #39
First Half Over......   

Second Half Under...... 
 
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Posted: #40
Too much plays on OREGON..
Teasing UCLA +31/Over 54

UCLA 21
Oregon 38
 
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Posted: #41
Would be a great spot for Oregon to look ahead to USC except it's on national TV and Oregon is fighting for a National Championship.... I locked in Oregon at 21.5 when the line first came out!
 
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Posted: #42
Under 61.5. Oregon 44/ UCLA 17.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

tt - seems to me you obsessed with stats.  Honest question... how long have you been at sports wagering, for real cash?

best of luck buddy, there is plenty of room for us to not see things the same way.  That is why there is a betting line, with roughly even action on both sides.  I cannot see it any other way than the ducks scoring pretty much at will, while knifing into the interior offense of UCLA making their first downs few and far between = blowout.

speed kills, and the ducks have more speed than any and every team in the country.


SF, I'm not "obsessed" with stats, but I think they are a more- unbiased predictor than your perception, especially for totals. Also, there is no way they are getting anywhere close to even action on this game--it's Oregon and the Over at ~ a 70% clip. Aren't you somewhat scared that you "cannot" see it any other way than "Oregon knifing into..and scoring at will." Good luck, as Oregon is a scary team because they can score so quickly....but, usually, the best games for me to bet are the ones that scare me because I know everyone else is scared to pull the trigger as well.

Oregon cruises 37-16
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

             Ducks QB situation is up in the air, so no telling how this game goes.  Only thing I do know , is Oregon has USC on deck, away.  Don't see this team spending, "needless energy" against UCLA if one of the only games that can derail their undefeated season is next. Trend this year has been for the Ducks to step on the gas pedal 2nd half, but if they have a 3 td  lead going into the final period,  can't see them playing for style points and getting anyone hurt.  Early lead, bring in the reserves, and give Wazzu the backdoor cover.  Wazzu might be the door mat of the PAC 10, but have been playing better as of late.  Cashed last week backing them, and will go back to the well once again this week. Think that Oregon has their eyes on the big prize, so this game is basically a scrimmage, and a chance for minutes for everyone.  Why would you open up your playbook to give "Kiffin the Dope" any recent film to watch.  Lord knows he's not smart enough to look at the games they had to play hard in, he's not the sharpest tool in the shed.   Ducks 37  Wazzu 17.  BOL

Great analysis 222.  I would have to agree but, if the Oregon D is as swarming as they were against Stanford in the 2nd half, I see some turnovers leading to some points here.  It is a game that if I had a gun to my head I would choose the "dog" here but there is no gun to my head so I'm savin my cash for better bets this weekend.   Good luck as always

 
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Posted: #45
Does anyone know anything about the replacement for Price?
 
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Posted: #46
playing the under and Oregon at the half.. two best plays in my opinion.. I see the Ducks putting up around 40, but UCLA not holding up their end to cover the over.. I don't think that Oregon will have much trouble with the 1st half like the past couple weeks, as they had a bye week.. I think the number 1 ranking will motivate them, as they don't wanna be the 3rd straight number 1 ranked team to lose.. Oregon is usually better in the 2nd half, but with SC on deck, they might rest their starters, especially with their QB kinda shaky already, leaving the backdoor open.. 
 
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Posted: #47
tt-

My expertise is college hoops but I still bet football and carouse the football forums. With that being said, I really like what your statistical analysis is spitting out. I often say you have to separate perception from reality when gambling. The reality is that Oregon is not going to put up 50-60 points every week even if "they want to impress voters/computers" as some people in this thread think. UCLA may not pass it 15 times, especially if Prince is out, in an effort to try and shorten the game as much as possible. I see Oregon maxing out at no more than 42 points and UCLA anywhere between 10-17. BOL on your play.

 
 
 
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Posted: #48
[Quote: Originally Posted by soonabooma] The under looks good, I don't know why considering how explosive Oregon is on offense, but it just seems like overall they should stay under the number.   But I think the best play in this game might just be Oregon -14, 1st half.   UCLA is NOT Stanford, and this is a totally different game.  It's Oregon at home on a Thursday night when all eyes will be watching.   Keyword.....HOME, the Ducks are a different beast at home,  UCLA could very well get the backdoor cover, but I'm guessing Oregon will be up pretty big at half.    GL    agreed ]
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