3* Troy/MTSU Under (63.5) - Looks like “over” on the surface as Troy has some strong “over” trends (11-2 L13, 11-2 away) and MTSU returns explosive QB Dasher. However a closer look shows that most of those Troy games involved BCS teams, and while both teams have a good offense, these are easily the best 2 defenses in the SBC. The L5 in this series have gone under the total, the L6 have totaled 54<, and the L3 at Murfreesboro 48, 41, and 47. The Blue Raiders have scored just 14.2 PPG in L6 vs. Troy (never over 20) and at home have held L11 FBS opponents to 27< and 19 of L22 SBC opponents to 24< (17.8 avg.). Both teams have good return men but Troy punter Goggans is 2 time All-SBC and MTSU is #21 in net punting (39.3). Troy 24, MTSU 23. Season to date 30-23-3 (+14.3).
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