Why do you guys hate so much...irondawg is doing everyone a favor and posting the games in NJ Porky's absence. He is just the messenger. The system tells him what to take. He posts the picks..if you guys like the pick, then bet it. If not,then don't bet it. I know irondawg and NJP are not holding guns to your heads and making you bet. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO POST THE PLAYS FOR NJP. Some of us take responsibility for our bets that lose. Don't let these haters get to you man.
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Why do you guys hate so much...irondawg is doing everyone a favor and posting the games in NJ Porky's absence. He is just the messenger. The system tells him what to take. He posts the picks..if you guys like the pick, then bet it. If not,then don't bet it. I know irondawg and NJP are not holding guns to your heads and making you bet. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO POST THE PLAYS FOR NJP. Some of us take responsibility for our bets that lose. Don't let these haters get to you man.
First filter is to cut the number of plays, there are way too many. 2nd is to take a closer at the flip flop lines. A high scoring game doesn't mean it will continue, also the same thing with a team being blown out. Now there is more of a chance of a flip flop on a OU than a side. 3rd as I said early on you have to put the human element into it and sometimes override the system.
Not hating, just giving some pointers. I have been doing 2nd halfs for a very long time. They are profit makers, no doubt.
Here is an example of the flip flop OU's I hit late night.
[2400] TOTAL u28½-110 (2H NORTH TEXAS vrs 2H UL MONROE) [2404] TOTAL u24½-110 (2H FLORIDA INTL vrs 2H TROY) [2370] 2H KENTUCKY -4½-110 [2374] TOTAL u29½-110 (2H IDAHO vrs 2H LOUISIANA TECH) [2376] TOTAL u28-120 (2H KANSAS STATE vrs 2H COLORADO) [2386] TOTAL u26½-110 (2H SAN JOSE STATE vrs 2H NEW MEXICO STATE) [2384] TOTAL u38-110 (2H UTEP vrs 2H TULSA)
Almost everyone of them were a very high scoring 1st half. Or in the case of Kentucky they were down at the half. That fricken' Colorado under was a gift.
Maybe look at a cap on the games. If the middle is over a certain number you axe it.
Anyway, just thought I would point you in a direction.
BOL tweaking it.
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First filter is to cut the number of plays, there are way too many. 2nd is to take a closer at the flip flop lines. A high scoring game doesn't mean it will continue, also the same thing with a team being blown out. Now there is more of a chance of a flip flop on a OU than a side. 3rd as I said early on you have to put the human element into it and sometimes override the system.
Not hating, just giving some pointers. I have been doing 2nd halfs for a very long time. They are profit makers, no doubt.
Here is an example of the flip flop OU's I hit late night.
[2400] TOTAL u28½-110 (2H NORTH TEXAS vrs 2H UL MONROE) [2404] TOTAL u24½-110 (2H FLORIDA INTL vrs 2H TROY) [2370] 2H KENTUCKY -4½-110 [2374] TOTAL u29½-110 (2H IDAHO vrs 2H LOUISIANA TECH) [2376] TOTAL u28-120 (2H KANSAS STATE vrs 2H COLORADO) [2386] TOTAL u26½-110 (2H SAN JOSE STATE vrs 2H NEW MEXICO STATE) [2384] TOTAL u38-110 (2H UTEP vrs 2H TULSA)
Almost everyone of them were a very high scoring 1st half. Or in the case of Kentucky they were down at the half. That fricken' Colorado under was a gift.
Maybe look at a cap on the games. If the middle is over a certain number you axe it.
Anyway, just thought I would point you in a direction.
Noone and I repeat NOONE...has winners each and every single day. Anyone that gambles knows you had good days and bad days...that's the gambling life. The system has been a proven winner over the last 4-5 weeks, so us players who have been following it for those last 5 weeks aren'tgoing to bail out all together after one day of losers...where all day we are down 7.6 units....
If NJPorky's system goes 4-0 or 5-1 tomorrow they will all be back on the bandwagon......the system is the system, you play all games and live with the results, and unless you have something better, please keep the bashing to yourself. If you don't belive in it, then don't come in the threads and read it....let us posters that do believe in it get the info we want and make the plays we want.
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hey rock40237
Noone and I repeat NOONE...has winners each and every single day. Anyone that gambles knows you had good days and bad days...that's the gambling life. The system has been a proven winner over the last 4-5 weeks, so us players who have been following it for those last 5 weeks aren'tgoing to bail out all together after one day of losers...where all day we are down 7.6 units....
If NJPorky's system goes 4-0 or 5-1 tomorrow they will all be back on the bandwagon......the system is the system, you play all games and live with the results, and unless you have something better, please keep the bashing to yourself. If you don't belive in it, then don't come in the threads and read it....let us posters that do believe in it get the info we want and make the plays we want.
cause believe me, id like it too work...and im not really sure why i am being labeld a "hater" but whatever. is it based on the 1st half scores, because like the VT/BC game i jumped on and that had some strange plays that led to a quick 10 points
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cause believe me, id like it too work...and im not really sure why i am being labeld a "hater" but whatever. is it based on the 1st half scores, because like the VT/BC game i jumped on and that had some strange plays that led to a quick 10 points
Also lay the hell off Irondawg, he is just posting what the formula tells him to post. It doesn't make any difference if he or Porky post it. It's the same thing and no one made you play the damn plays.
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Also lay the hell off Irondawg, he is just posting what the formula tells him to post. It doesn't make any difference if he or Porky post it. It's the same thing and no one made you play the damn plays.
1st off i dont need a lecture from u. 2nd i am behind the system. The thing i am tryin to figure out is if its actually effective or is it as useful as asking my dog to pick a winner.
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1st off i dont need a lecture from u. 2nd i am behind the system. The thing i am tryin to figure out is if its actually effective or is it as useful as asking my dog to pick a winner.
Wow awfully sensitive.... im trying to get this thing to work if it in fact works. i have no problem with iron, i dont know why u others ae trying to babysit him.
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Wow awfully sensitive.... im trying to get this thing to work if it in fact works. i have no problem with iron, i dont know why u others ae trying to babysit him.
Guys, don't criticize IronDog. He IS doing the system correctly. I can vouche for that. Just having a bad day. And I agree with Lippsman here. Remember guys, this is the third week of this system, and it began as a trial. You need data before you can tweak a system. Now we have that data, time to tweak the college.
I have said for at least a week and a half, that college ball is much more unpredictable than the pros. Therefore, time to look at some things. Road vs. home teams, is the favorite covering by more than 2x the game time ATS line, hence they will start to sit 1st stringers out, etc.... Lots of variables here. So just be patient......
One bad week and sh*t hits the fan. I actually approve of the contrarian system, we just have to use it a better way.
GL to all!!!!
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Guys, don't criticize IronDog. He IS doing the system correctly. I can vouche for that. Just having a bad day. And I agree with Lippsman here. Remember guys, this is the third week of this system, and it began as a trial. You need data before you can tweak a system. Now we have that data, time to tweak the college.
I have said for at least a week and a half, that college ball is much more unpredictable than the pros. Therefore, time to look at some things. Road vs. home teams, is the favorite covering by more than 2x the game time ATS line, hence they will start to sit 1st stringers out, etc.... Lots of variables here. So just be patient......
One bad week and sh*t hits the fan. I actually approve of the contrarian system, we just have to use it a better way.
Do you think it would help, if scores like blocked punts or scores like that were takin out of the equation? cause like i said VT/BC had an odd start that led to a quick 10-0 lead. Then the 2nd half went under.
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Do you think it would help, if scores like blocked punts or scores like that were takin out of the equation? cause like i said VT/BC had an odd start that led to a quick 10-0 lead. Then the 2nd half went under.
We're all big boys here. Like texast said, "if you like the pick, than bet it. If not, than don't bet it". I jumped on late today, and happenened to pick the 2 O.T. games, that lost. I posted about my timing, but not the fact that the "system" sucked, it was my OWN choice to bet them. The NHL forum has some REALLY hot cappers right now, even if you don't know much about hockey. And, from what I've seen over ther, there really isn't a bunch of haters. Check it out. Best of luck to all.
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We're all big boys here. Like texast said, "if you like the pick, than bet it. If not, than don't bet it". I jumped on late today, and happenened to pick the 2 O.T. games, that lost. I posted about my timing, but not the fact that the "system" sucked, it was my OWN choice to bet them. The NHL forum has some REALLY hot cappers right now, even if you don't know much about hockey. And, from what I've seen over ther, there really isn't a bunch of haters. Check it out. Best of luck to all.
Updated YTD numbers, with 1 total play outstanding:
(I won't post units... I'll let Porky do that. When I post units, I post them from my actual plays, since the lines aren't always -110. It makes it easier to assume the unit plays if you do assume -110, though, so I'll just let Porky handle that.)
Sides YTD 33-29-1 Win 52%
Totals YTD 31-28-2 Win 51%
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Updated YTD numbers, with 1 total play outstanding:
(I won't post units... I'll let Porky do that. When I post units, I post them from my actual plays, since the lines aren't always -110. It makes it easier to assume the unit plays if you do assume -110, though, so I'll just let Porky handle that.)
But Rocky, how the hell are you going to know if a punter suddenly blacks out on a play, falls unconscious fumbles the ball and is picked up and run back for a touchdown or if the quarterback plays with a broken thumb, says here "defensive back" I'll throw you a gift, score! Ya just don't know! That's gambling!
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But Rocky, how the hell are you going to know if a punter suddenly blacks out on a play, falls unconscious fumbles the ball and is picked up and run back for a touchdown or if the quarterback plays with a broken thumb, says here "defensive back" I'll throw you a gift, score! Ya just don't know! That's gambling!
The NHL forum has some REALLY hot cappers right now, even if you don't know much about hockey. And, from what I've seen over ther, there really isn't a bunch of haters. Check it out. Best of luck to all.
On fire is an understatment. Newyorker35 has won his last 12 posted games. It takes me almost a fricken' hour to do the leaederboard.
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Quote Originally Posted by sjewell29:
The NHL forum has some REALLY hot cappers right now, even if you don't know much about hockey. And, from what I've seen over ther, there really isn't a bunch of haters. Check it out. Best of luck to all.
On fire is an understatment. Newyorker35 has won his last 12 posted games. It takes me almost a fricken' hour to do the leaederboard.
I understand that, but I mean like if a 1st half is loaded with goofy plays, blocked kicks/ deflections/ NO Penalties etc. That should be taken into account, just cause its rare. That could tweak the system... Im not saying they cant also happen in the 2nd half, but certainly are less likely of occuring.
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I understand that, but I mean like if a 1st half is loaded with goofy plays, blocked kicks/ deflections/ NO Penalties etc. That should be taken into account, just cause its rare. That could tweak the system... Im not saying they cant also happen in the 2nd half, but certainly are less likely of occuring.
Well, the Cal/Zona Over had a good start... a TD 1:45 into the 3Q.
Ultimately, it would be difficult to take "fluke plays" into account, especially when you have 10 games or more hitting a halftime within a 5-minute time span, and you have to quickly make calculations and decisions on each one. There's just not enough time to do all the research on every game.
The important thing is not to panic and change everything when you have one bad week. Go back and look at last week's NFL thread. NJPorky backtested his system for the NFL, and found that there was one week earlier in the season when he would have gone 0-4. But he was still hitting close to 60% for the season.
Don't panic... tweak where appropriate. But don't necessarily make wholesale changes just because you had one bad week out of 6 other good ones.
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Well, the Cal/Zona Over had a good start... a TD 1:45 into the 3Q.
Ultimately, it would be difficult to take "fluke plays" into account, especially when you have 10 games or more hitting a halftime within a 5-minute time span, and you have to quickly make calculations and decisions on each one. There's just not enough time to do all the research on every game.
The important thing is not to panic and change everything when you have one bad week. Go back and look at last week's NFL thread. NJPorky backtested his system for the NFL, and found that there was one week earlier in the season when he would have gone 0-4. But he was still hitting close to 60% for the season.
Don't panic... tweak where appropriate. But don't necessarily make wholesale changes just because you had one bad week out of 6 other good ones.
On fire is an understatment. Newyorker35 has won his last 12 posted games. It takes me almost a fricken' hour to do the leaederboard.
Thanks Lippsman!!!!! I've not eve had a chance to check out Newyorker. I've been tailin" ----------- wobble, but they don't fall down". I don't want to mention his name, and jinx him, cause I've made more money the last 3 days tailin him, than ever before in that amout of time.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:
On fire is an understatment. Newyorker35 has won his last 12 posted games. It takes me almost a fricken' hour to do the leaederboard.
Thanks Lippsman!!!!! I've not eve had a chance to check out Newyorker. I've been tailin" ----------- wobble, but they don't fall down". I don't want to mention his name, and jinx him, cause I've made more money the last 3 days tailin him, than ever before in that amout of time.
Heavin: I'll have to go back and look at it. I think it was 15 points for totals. The tweaks made the system more complicated, so I was going to watch tomorrow while NJP posted the plays.
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Heavin: I'll have to go back and look at it. I think it was 15 points for totals. The tweaks made the system more complicated, so I was going to watch tomorrow while NJP posted the plays.
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Very good input. 
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