UGA + 17
Huge write up and more to follow!
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Sorry fellows,
Ok, here we go…..
Trends:
I do not like trends. I do not believe in trends. But, for those who do, I will state a few facts and some interesting trends in this game. I pulled these trends from Covers:
· Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
· Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
· Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
UGA has never lost to fl coming off a bye week in which fl was undefeated. Great example of this was back in 2007 when Georgia was a huge underdog to then undefeated FL. UGA won.
The 19 year theory:
Between 1931 and 1951, Georgia and Florida met 20 times. During that period, the Bulldogs won 17 of 20 series showdowns while the Gators won three.
Between 1952 and 1970, Georgia and Florida met 19 times. During that period, the Gators won 13 of 19 series showdowns while the Bulldogs won five. (There was one tie in that span.)
Between 1971 and 1989, Georgia and Florida met 19 times. During that period, the Bulldogs won 15 of 19 series showdowns while the Gators won four.
Between 1990 and 2008, Georgia and Florida met 19 times. During that period, the Gators won 16 of 19 series showdowns while the Bulldogs won three (King, K).
The cycle starts over in 2009 in favor of the dawgs.
THE REAL STATS AND ANYLASIS:
I am going to touch on a few intangible points first. The rivalry. Obviously this is one of the top 3 rivalries on all of college football. This is always a close game. Over the last nine meetings (throw out last years game) the average margin of victory for Florida was only 8.8. Include last years FL victory and the number increases to 12 points average margin of victory for Florida. This game is Always close.
Everyone I have talked to says UGA needs to run the ball to beat Florida. I disagree. I am looking at the passing game closely. FL has not played any team with a good passing game, with the exception of Arkansas. Mallet threw for 230 against FL. Arkansas also rushed for over 100 hundred yards against the FL D. I can see GA having very similar numbers. UGA has better receivers than Arkansas and I am still waiting on Caleb King and Richard Samuels to have a break out game. FL gave up 100 yards a game rushing in their last two games. I believe GA will rush for 100+ setting up Green and Moore on the outsides. I can easily see GA rushing for 100 plus yards and throwing for 200+. If they do this, not only will they cover the spread but they could win out right.
Sorry fellows,
Ok, here we go…..
Trends:
I do not like trends. I do not believe in trends. But, for those who do, I will state a few facts and some interesting trends in this game. I pulled these trends from Covers:
· Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
· Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
· Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
UGA has never lost to fl coming off a bye week in which fl was undefeated. Great example of this was back in 2007 when Georgia was a huge underdog to then undefeated FL. UGA won.
The 19 year theory:
Between 1931 and 1951, Georgia and Florida met 20 times. During that period, the Bulldogs won 17 of 20 series showdowns while the Gators won three.
Between 1952 and 1970, Georgia and Florida met 19 times. During that period, the Gators won 13 of 19 series showdowns while the Bulldogs won five. (There was one tie in that span.)
Between 1971 and 1989, Georgia and Florida met 19 times. During that period, the Bulldogs won 15 of 19 series showdowns while the Gators won four.
Between 1990 and 2008, Georgia and Florida met 19 times. During that period, the Gators won 16 of 19 series showdowns while the Bulldogs won three (King, K).
The cycle starts over in 2009 in favor of the dawgs.
THE REAL STATS AND ANYLASIS:
I am going to touch on a few intangible points first. The rivalry. Obviously this is one of the top 3 rivalries on all of college football. This is always a close game. Over the last nine meetings (throw out last years game) the average margin of victory for Florida was only 8.8. Include last years FL victory and the number increases to 12 points average margin of victory for Florida. This game is Always close.
Everyone I have talked to says UGA needs to run the ball to beat Florida. I disagree. I am looking at the passing game closely. FL has not played any team with a good passing game, with the exception of Arkansas. Mallet threw for 230 against FL. Arkansas also rushed for over 100 hundred yards against the FL D. I can see GA having very similar numbers. UGA has better receivers than Arkansas and I am still waiting on Caleb King and Richard Samuels to have a break out game. FL gave up 100 yards a game rushing in their last two games. I believe GA will rush for 100+ setting up Green and Moore on the outsides. I can easily see GA rushing for 100 plus yards and throwing for 200+. If they do this, not only will they cover the spread but they could win out right.
UGA has an awful defense. However, I believe Florida will use the same strategy offensively that they did against LSU. They will pound the ball up the middle and run a lot of time off the clock (good if you have a lot of points +17). Tebow admits to playing bad lately. He is only averaging 170 yards passing. He can’t throw this year. He has 8 tds and 4 ints this year. I do not think FL will go to the air game. The fact that they will not attack through the air is another perfect reason for UGA to cover.
Only two teams have rushed for over 100 yards against FL. Both times the games were close. I know that UGA will rush for 100+.
Both teams have turned the ball over a lot this season. If UGA can get Tebow into throwing situations, I can see Tim throwing two INTS in this game.
THE MAJOR FACTOR WILL BE SPECIAL TEAMS. You would think that the edge in this category would be in FL favor. However, UGA has returned several punts and kickoffs for touchdowns this year. I am looking for Boykin to give UGA great field position to start drives. The field position game should help with keep the score low and the cover in check.
Georgia has nothing to lose in this game. The UGA defensive coordinators job is on the line this week. I hope the dawgs can pull one off for him.
Final Score Prediction:
UGA 17
Florida 24
Small Money Line Play
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UGA has an awful defense. However, I believe Florida will use the same strategy offensively that they did against LSU. They will pound the ball up the middle and run a lot of time off the clock (good if you have a lot of points +17). Tebow admits to playing bad lately. He is only averaging 170 yards passing. He can’t throw this year. He has 8 tds and 4 ints this year. I do not think FL will go to the air game. The fact that they will not attack through the air is another perfect reason for UGA to cover.
Only two teams have rushed for over 100 yards against FL. Both times the games were close. I know that UGA will rush for 100+.
Both teams have turned the ball over a lot this season. If UGA can get Tebow into throwing situations, I can see Tim throwing two INTS in this game.
THE MAJOR FACTOR WILL BE SPECIAL TEAMS. You would think that the edge in this category would be in FL favor. However, UGA has returned several punts and kickoffs for touchdowns this year. I am looking for Boykin to give UGA great field position to start drives. The field position game should help with keep the score low and the cover in check.
Georgia has nothing to lose in this game. The UGA defensive coordinators job is on the line this week. I hope the dawgs can pull one off for him.
Final Score Prediction:
UGA 17
Florida 24
Small Money Line Play
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