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The Contrarian- line movements to be wary of

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Posted: #1
There are many quality x's and o's cappers in covers land... much better than myself. Im a numbers guy.
 
I do believe that there is inherent value in knowing where the public money is, and where the books seem to be welcoming the heavy public action; or, seen another way, where the big money is going, offsetting the heavy public pounding of a certain side.
 
The following are some of the contrarian line movements Ive been watching for this opening week. There are a few others I will be keeping tabs on. I will deem these leans for now; but almost never (never say never) will I side with the public when the line moves against the current.
 
The % listed is the number of bets.
 
Wake @ Baylor:  87%  on Wake (fave); Line has moved from         -12.5 to  -12.
 
Syr @ Northwestern:  73% on Northwstrn(fave); Line moved from    -12 to -11.5
 
Memphis @ Miss.:  76% on Miss(fave) ; Line from -8 to -7.5
 
Miss St @ La Tech:  87% on Miss St (fave); Line from -8.5 to -7.5
 
Mich St @ Cal:  55% on Cal (fave); Line from -5.5 to -4 *
 
*usually 55% does not attract my attention, but the 1.5 point line movement (on less than a TD line to start with) certainly does.
 
As of now... Baylor and Michigan St. are leans; the other games I just dont know enough about to play them... yet.
 
Any X & O insights or other news on these games is appreciated.
 
I'll update any other peculiar line movements as we approach        T minus 0. 
 
GL all     Lets make this a profitable season   
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
I myself was looking at line movements on wagerline and was asking why the hell did the line drop when the percentages being bet on the favorite were enormous.  Wake/Baylor the best example. 
 
However thru my research on Wake and Baylor, Looking at Power Rankings, Coaches, Systems, returning starters, previous match ups if any, Spread trends etc,  I still have Wake winning by 16. 
But then again I am new to trying to cap games.
 
Thanks for the post lonetree
 
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Posted: #3
La Tech is my biggest play of week 1.  They have a really good core of players returning and should be improved on both sides of the ball.  They will be a contender in the WAC this year.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by billieman:

La Tech is my biggest play of week 1.  They have a really good core of players returning and should be improved on both sides of the ball.  They will be a contender in the WAC this year.

i like these guys a lot in that game too.

 
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Posted: #5
ramsfan, billieman, clowninmyside
 
...just trying to get a whiff of where the smart money is headed.
 
Thx for the input.
 
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Posted: #6
LVSC open line for WF@Baylor  has it at -10.5 not like you stated above lonetree....very misleading...
 
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Posted: #7
Smart money is def on Michigan State in Vegas...hence the contrarian line movement.  I would have loved to get them at 5.5.  But will still take them anything over 3.  Javon Ringer is a stud.... and Cal has to replace their entire receiving core and no Justin Forsett this year.  Much improved MSU team that lost by only 3 @ Wisconsin and 7 @ Ohio State last year... both harder places to play than Cal.
 
Dantonio has a new culture believing in the Spartans in East Lansing.  I look for an undefeated showdown with the Buckeyes on October 18th.
 
Good Luck all
 
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Posted: #8
hacmao
 
...and Bet Cris opened at -13.
 
I am quoting all opens and current lines from Pinnacle as they are consistently in line with the mean.
 
There is no intent to mislead.... and it is not unusual for individual bookmakers to come out with a line (opening or not) that is not in line with the majority.  The %'s are compiled from a slew of books (sportsinsights.com) and the movements I quote are consistent with most of the books. They will not match all of the books all the time.
 
Dont let this thread stop you from taking Wake. 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by lonetreejj:

hacmao
 
...and Bet Cris opened at -13.
 
I am quoting all opens and current lines from Pinnacle as they are consistently in line with the mean.
 
There is no intent to mislead.... and it is not unusual for individual bookmakers to come out with a line (opening or not) that is not in line with the majority.  The %'s are compiled from a slew of books (sportsinsights.com) and the movements I quote are consistent with most of the books. They will not match all of the books all the time.
 
Dont let this thread stop you from taking Wake. 

 

 jj~ I was getting ready to defend you before I saw that you addressed it yourself,you are right on point.  

 
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Posted: #10
correct me if i'm wrong...but isn't LVSC is the one who came out with the lines first...then different books adjust the lines later???
 
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Posted: #11
As far as I know, LVSC is a front runner in setting lines.
And those lines are as volatile as an IPO over the counter. They want to have a balanced book to guarantee profits. So the opening of the broader market is a more accurate indication when weighing public interest %'s.
 
Fk, I'm certainly not infallible... but I dont post a lot, and I try not to post B.S. for the sake of reading my own thoughts...
 
Im certainly not trying to mislead... altho I am sure that there are some in these threads who may intentionally misguide or confuse, and many more who are simply misguided and confused.
 
 
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Posted: #12
More important to think about key numbers than the number of points a line moves.  5.5 to 4 is much less of a move than 4  to 2.5.  5.5 to 4 is pretty much the same as 4.5 to 4 because an extremely small number of games end up on 5.  12.5 to 12 is almost completely irrelevant a move because even fewer games end on 12.
 
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Posted: #13
Line History:
BookMaker

Game: 
Wake Forest
vs
Baylor

 
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Posted: #14
POINTSPREADS
08/05 09:24AM: -13 -110 / +13 -110
08/10 05:58PM: -13 -110 / +13 -110
08/12 11:59AM: -12½ -110 / +12½ -110
08/18 03:02PM: -12 -110 / +12 -110
08/20 11:17AM: -12½ -110 / +12½ -110
08/20 10:00PM: -12½ -110 / +12½ -110
08/21 01:40PM: -12½ -110 / +12½ -110
08/21 02:11PM: -12 -110 / +12 -110
 
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Posted: #15
Thorpe
 
Nice perspective. That doth warrant consideration.
 
 
 
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Posted: #16
Great post, lonetrejj.  Very interesting information. 

I'm already on Memphis and Baylor, and was considering LT for the reasons already mentioned by others in this thread, so your numbers are great supporting material for that, too. 

I'm looking forward to seeing your posts for each week as the year progresses.
 
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Posted: #17
dawg
 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by UpFiveHundy:

Smart money is def on Michigan State in Vegas...hence the contrarian line movement.  I would have loved to get them at 5.5.  But will still take them anything over 3.  Javon Ringer is a stud.... and Cal has to replace their entire receiving core and no Justin Forsett this year.  Much improved MSU team that lost by only 3 @ Wisconsin and 7 @ Ohio State last year... both harder places to play than Cal.
 
Dantonio has a new culture believing in the Spartans in East Lansing.  I look for an undefeated showdown with the Buckeyes on October 18th.
 
Good Luck all


No, the public is pounding the snot out of Michigan St.

Notice that all lonetree's numbers have the favorite drawing a large % of the public support? No matter where you get the numbers, the pattern is the same. You have to normalize the numbers to account for it. Fact is, 56% is a very low public support number for a solid favorite, well below average. Besides, to characterize the sports betting scene as public vs sharps is a little too simplistic. Better is a three class model, public, public that bets, and sharp money.

Those % numbers are largely determined by people that have zero impact on betting lines financially (class 1). The second group actually bets in the 3 to 4 figure range, and cumulatively they can drive line movements but are outnumbered by class 1 when it comes to measuring public sentiment. You are getting classic group 2 action on MSU. How do you track this? Best way is to read a public forum like this one. Clear majority favor MSU, and some of them actually bet. Meanwhile the sharps are poised to swoop in on Cal -4, one of the easiest plays on the board this week......


 
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Posted: #19
Good Thread....Why doesn't somebody look at the last 5 years ATS numbers and see how the line movement theory has done!
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by YouOnlyLiveOnce:

Good Thread....Why doesn't somebody look at the last 5 years ATS numbers and see how the line movement theory has done!


Good idea. How about YOU?


 
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Posted: #21
Phil Helmuth is absolutely correct, in that there are many factors to be considered, and its rarely simple.
 
But the statement that the public is pounding MSU is not true.
 
The %'s are an accurate depiction of public sentiment because they are a % of actual wagers (agreed that 55% is not an overwhelming statement)... but the number of wagers is what it is and the line movement is what it is.
 
There may be a lean (in general) from Covers-nation.... but there are many occasions where the sentiment w/in Covers is opposite the general public sentiment.   
 
It remains to be seen as to what the sharps will do- if anything; and what the linesmakers will do if'n the sharps do do.
 
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by PhilHelmuth:



Good idea. How about YOU?


 

  That'd be research worthy of a Thesis for a PHD.

anybody want to be called Doctor.

 
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Posted: #23
Fact:

More than half of all online sports wagers are for $10 or less.

I have an advantage over people who are "waiting to see what the sharps will do." I AM one. I'm goddamn Phil Helmuth, for chrissakes! You donkeys want to piss your money away on MSU, go right ahead.....


 
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Posted: #24
Sorry Phil
 
Seriously, I will watch line and %'s closely. I'll wait to pull the trigger if at all on this one. Theres only about 100 other games to choose from after all.
 
Your counter-contrary slant is appreciated. 
 
 
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Posted: #25
why anyone would want to lay 12+ points on the road with a team that is offensivley challneged is beyond me, i think Wake wins a low scoring game 23-13 and Baylor covers
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