EAGLES OVER PARLAY $300/$1250
JETS -4.5 $360/$300
UCF -5.5 $330/$300
Tonight I am locked and loaded on WVU. The thing I love about any websites posting public consensus is that these percentages do not come from the actual sportsbooks. Weather it be on here, V**asI***der, T**Spr*** T***X or any other website the percentages come from the free contests held on the website. For example, if I go an into Wagerline Contests, which I do, and put in a pick for this game weather it be on Survivor, Office Pools or the Main Contest whatever, I contribute to the public consensus. Now many a time I see people posting reverse line movement, highly backed public dogs, any of those angles, they could be serverly misled. Look around you, to the right there is an AD for Bet365, above me there is an AD for BetED and to either side of me are girls in referee uniforms advertising for another sportsbook. There is no way these books are releasing their information to a website as popular as this. Its a great marketing strategy and makes this website the busiest on the web, but its not the truth.
This game opened at -11 or -11.5 nearly everywhere. It has since dropped to -10 across the board or -15 (+240) at 5Dimes, why they post their lines like that, I have no idea. The reason this has happened is because there are more people and more money on South Florida tonight then WVU. Today at work anytime I had a bet on WVU of $250 or more, the juice went up 2-5 cents. Since the lines here move at -25 per half point we saw a line move every $1000-$1500 of difference. However, on the other side, I fielded over $8500 of bets on South Florida where the line didnt even flinch. At the end of the day I put in 9 hours and processed 57 bets on South Florida for $8500 and and 18 on West Virginia totaling $5300. At the days beginning when I got there the line was -9 (-105). When I left it sat at -10.5 (-110) despite the heavy difference in wagers.
How can you like USF in this matchup. I know Devine has turf toe but he barley played last week and has had plenty enough time to sit out and let this heal up. USF has upset WVU in the past because of their defense. For those of you keeping track, 5 players have departed that defense from last season to the Pros. This is the same USF team that got out "battled" 13-9 by SYRACUSE last weekend. The only slip up for the Mountainers this season was in Baton Rouge where they lost by only 6 points to the Tigers.
For those of you saying that the underdog is "due", the only thing that is ever "due" is library books in high school and your bills at the end of the month. At the end of every year its between 48-52% fav/dog ratio, dont think it works that way every week. Everytime I read somewhere that a dog or a favorite is DUE to win reminds me of a guy I saw in the Casino after my shift at the roulette table continuously doubling up on red after he saw black hit seven straight times. I asked why he was doing that, he said because it has to hit, the odds are 7 to 1! Six more blacks in a row later he lost just over $850 and walked out empty handed.
WVU is too fast and can score far more points then these Bulls. Put that together with the fact its 40 degrees and even the usually spot on reporter girls for ESPN on the sidelines are having trouble reading their lines, let alone these kids from Florida infront of screaming fans excited to see their Mountainers in the Big East Opener.
WEST VIRGINIA -10 $330/$300