Sports Investors Group College Football Week 10

CFB Record: 0-0


First time posting. Will try some college football today and see if other sports should be posted on this forum. Not a tout, not a service, just couldn't find any other username that wasn't already taken. It's catchy right?



Illinois Fighting Illini +3

The public is split on this game today and the right investment is on Illinois. Michigan has lost three straight games, they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and the Wolverines are now 0-6 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record away from home. Michigan is also 0-6 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss the game before, they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, they are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 Big Ten Conference games and they are only 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games coming off a spread loss the game before. Illinois is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 Big Ten Conference games and they have one of the toughest defenses in college football so far in 2010 which is a huge surprise. Don't go against a hot team versus a team with a Head Coach who's head is on the chopping block.

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Oregon Ducks -35

There is absolutely no reason to back the Huskies on the road with QB Jake Locker out even if it means eating the 35+ points on the spread. Oregon knows how close the race is for top spot in the BCS right now and scoring as many points as possible is all they can really think of. Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on Field Turf, they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and the Huskies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a game where they accumulated less than 100 rushing yards in their previous games. In other words when this team goes cold and they go cold and with an inexperienced QB at the helms this week against the #1 team in the Country, this could be a complete disaster. Washington is also 1-5 ATS in their last six road games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and they are only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog. If you liked the Ducks before Locker was announced OUT, then you like them even more right now as the Huskies have always been a great team to fade away from home, LOCKER or NO LOCKER. Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last four home games (all as favorites mind you), they are one of the streakiest teams in college football with a 7-1 ATS record in their last eight games coming off a game where they accumulated 450+ total yards of offense and the Ducks have covered the spread in 20 of their last 26 games versus teams with a losing record on the season. Oregon is also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a visiting team with a losing record away from home, they are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 PAC 10 Conference games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. As if it wasn't already bad enough that QB Jake Locker is out, Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Eugene, Oregon is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and the Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings now. Don't forget Oregon is probably going to put some 70 points on the board in this one because they need the BCS points and this is one of the worst defenses they are going to see all season. No Locker, No Chance.

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Utah Utes +4.5

College GameDay is hyping this game up like the BCS Championship Game or something but what it really is in the eyes of real fans is a BCS Contention Elimination Game because the loser can forget the BCS and the winner still has a very small outsiders chance of playing in the big game or at the very least a BCS Bowl Game. There is no point really talking about this game all that much because TCU is 1-2 ATS away from home this season while Utah is an impressive 3-0-1 ATS at home. EDGE UTAH. For some reason TCU has never been all that consistent and they are known for their letdown games. Proof of that lies in the fact that Texas Christian University is 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they score 40+ points and it probably wasn't the best of ideas to put so many points on the board last weekend. Other than that TCU has been somewhat of a goldmine in Mountain West Conference betting but playing on the road in such an important game is going to be tough and you have to be somewhat concerned seeing how they stumbled at both Colorado State and at SMU (allowing 24 points on the road). Utah is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games dating back to last season, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog and they are now 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games played on the Field Turf surface. The Utes are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games dating back to the 2009 season, they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus Mountain West Conference opponents, they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the Month of November and most important of all, the Utes are a very impressive 27-7-1 ATS in their last 35 games overall as an underdog. Incredible if you ask me. The last five times these two teams locked horns (no pun intended of course), the Home Team is 4-1 ATS in those five games and there is no reason to believe that the best Home Team in college football is about to lose at home in what is arguably the biggest game in Utah Utes Football Program history, let alone fail to cover the 4.5 points as an underdog. Utah is ready for this, they have been here and done that before and it's time to finally go against TCU in a big game that matter. Utah has all the power at home.

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South Carolina Gamecocks -4.5

If it's not QB Ryan Mallett, it's WR Greg Childs. Just as the Razorbacks star QB returns from injury, out goes their second best offensive player as Childs tore a tendon in his knee and is gone for the year. His 46 catches are going to be sorely missed by the #2 passing offense in the Nation. At some point you have to evaluate what is on the line for these two teams. Arkansas is already Bowl Eligible which is great but they are out of contention for the SEC Conference's West Division as they sit behind Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama and Auburn with only a few games left. South Carolina on the other hand leads the SEC East Division by one game on the Florida Gators and it's pretty much their Division and Conference to lose at this point seeing how they are the ones who knocked off Alabama earlier this year. It's tough to go against an Arkansas team that has been so good at covering spreads against SEC Conference opponents (they have covered in 7 of their last 8 or something like it) and the Razorbacks have always been good when they carry momentum (9-2 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win) but they did a bit too much for my liking in their win over Vanderbilt last weekend and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they allowed less than 275 total yards of offense. Pardon the term but they kind of blew their load a bit early. Now they have to go to Columbia, one of the hottest destinations in the Country right now to face a Gamecocks team that wasn't all that sharp at home against Tennessee last weekend but that were obviously looking ahead to the end of this season a bit and it cost them. The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning record away from home which is a great example of how well this team plays versus good teams as opposed to losing teams like they did against the Volunteers last weekend. South Carolina is a good bounce back team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game and they are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Winning and covering these types of spreads has been a problem for Steve Spurrier and his Gamecocks team in the past but this is his best team ever as Head Coach of this program, he holds all the cards in terms of winning the SEC East Division and playing in the title game later this month and I am going to back the Favorite in this one seeing how the Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. That's good enough for me to believe South Carolina bounces back from that shaky game against Tennessee.

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Good writeups dude...lots of trends are good but sometimes dont translate to shit....Yes Washington is bad, but Oregon is not up to playing this game . Still could be a 54-10 game though...GL Dude

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Kansas State Wildcats +3.5

Now how does this make any sense. We've already established that Texas is not a good football team in 2010 yet somehow they continue to earn the respect of the boys in Vegas and I will continue to go against a team that is 2-6 ATS this season. I see where the oddsmakers are coming from because in their only two away games of the season, Texas has won (Texas Tech and Nebraska) and Kansas State is only 1-4 ATS in five home games this season but this is the Super Bowl for the Wildcats and the faithful of Manhattan know it. The Wildcats are one win away from their first College Bowl Game since the 2006 season when they made the Texas Bowl (ironically) and with their poor play at home (blowout losses to Oklahoma State and Nebraska), this is the one game these guys feel they can win. Why not? You have to understand that those backing Texas in this game more likely than not were the same ones who bet on them against Nebraska and against Texas Tech, two big wins away from home but those wins and spread covers came as an underdog. Texas is a pathetic 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite, they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and the Horns are only 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall so unless they are underdogs like they were in Lubbock and Lincoln this year, stay away from the Horns and lines that look too good to be true. Texas is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on the Field Turf surface. Kansas State on the other hand have struggled at home this season and it has cost them a few times and possibly a chance to go bowling if they can't win this one but Kansas State is angry at their loss at home to Oklahoma State last weekend and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss and an ATS loss for that matter. The Wildcats are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in the Big 12 Conference and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games coming off a game where they score less than 20 points the game before. The Road Team has been successful in this series but let's make one thing very clear, this is not a good matchup for the Horns, I hate that they are favored on the road because Texas is now 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings between these two football teams. The UNDERDOG has covered the spread in five straight meetings between these teams and although playing on the road has been successful, Kansas State is not missing out on a chance to put away the big boys who are by no means guaranteed to make it to a Bowl Game this season. The Wildcats are too much for a Texas team that has been notorious the last few seasons as a favorite, let alone a favorite on the road.

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Thanks phark. the question I ask myself here is...do I see Oregon scoring anything less than 60 points? Not really. Can Washington counter with 30, probably not. I love the Ducks in this spot. Chip Kelly knows he needs tons of points for the BCS and he'll go after him. All the best and GL Saturday.

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Missouri Tigers -4

One of two things happened last week in Missouri's 31-17 loss at Nebraska as a +8 point road underdog. Either the Tigers are going to show that they are the real deal and that they belong in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game if the cards fall into place or b) they are going to fold like cheap tents and a good 75% of the public is going to join the sheep herd as they tumble over that large cliff in Lubbock. It makes senses to go against Texas Tech because of the way they have played and because Tommy Tuberville is so overrated as a head coach, always has been, but the win and cover probably won't be that simple. Having said that it's hard not to back Mizzou knowing that they beat Texas Tech by 31 points in 2007, they beat Texas Tech by 17 points here in 2006 and they beat Texas Tech by 31 points in 2003. How can you not fade the no defense Red Raiders? Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on the Field Turf surface and they may want to reconsider using this stuff down the line because they clearly can't get used to it in 2010. I also don't see the point of betting on a team like Texas Tech knowing that they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games versus Big 12 Conference opponents and they are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in the Month of November. Having said that, Texas Tech has covered the spread in five straight games as an underdog of this range at home and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up loss but Missouri is the real deal in 2010 and they are now 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points which completely takes away the edge Texas Tech has at home as an underdog of the mid-range. The Tigers are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite, they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they are 14-6 ATS now in their last 20 road games dating back to the last few seasons. Missouri has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two schools and I expect them to prove their worth in the Big 12 and in the TOP 25 rankings this week with a huge road win over a flailing Texas Tech program that just can't seem to stop anyone recently. I'll go with speed and ability to strike fast.

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Wishing all the best to everyone this week!

Good Writeups

Like the write-ups, but have to disagree with Texas.  They are my largest play this weekend.  

thanks for the comments rlp...great analysis, should be a good game man. I just don't see the Utes losing at home and certainly not by more than a field goal. too much on the line and they have BCS experience.

Illinois +3 =

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Oregon Ducks -17.5 ---2nd Half---

Not much explanation needed. The Ducks moved the ball on a conservative basis in the first half and are up 18-6. I am already on the full game so I figure this is either going to be very close to a full game cover and we have a difference of almost a touchdown between the full game and the 2nd half. Ducks need a good showing for the BCS because right now winning by anything less than 30 points is a complete joke in the eyes of the computers. Sit down for this one, down a few cold ones and let's make some money in the second half of this game. This is a hedge wager if anything of sorts but at the same time should have a chance to win both the full game and the second half if Oregon decides to show up.

RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 2 of 5

Why does Chip Kelly needs tons of points for the BCS?  Its pretty simple for Oregon, win out and they are playing for the title.  They aren't Boise, Utah or TCU trying to impress people.

Week 10


Illinois +3 =

Oregon -35 =

Oregon -17.5 ---2nd Half--- =

Utah +4.5 =



3-1 this week

Style points my friend and he got them...