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Sept 13, 2008, The Biggest Game...

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by -Chase-:


1) Ohio St has the best team coming into the season so I have no idea what would be surprising about them beating USC.

2) If the line is any higher than 3.5 it is solely because of public perception. At a neutral site I would put the line at a pk or Ohio St as a very small fav. It's easy to talk shit now, but just wait till Sept. 13th when you're wondering why your bankroll is empty after the OSU/USC game.

Can't really argue with you too much. I'm not an OSU fan.........not in love with the Trojans either. On paper, OSU is loaded, while USC seemed to have lost some of its swagger last year. BUT...........I remember USC lost like 3 starters in the game vs Washington, which put them down 5 starters going into the Stanford game the next week. I don't think they were completely healthy again til the Rose Bowl...........& we saw what happened there. Mendenhall ran for a chunk but got half of that by busting one long one. It was never close.
  USC has a few holes to fill..............but they fill holes pretty well. I think we'll have to wait until August to see who is injured, jailed, etc. before making any real calls on this one.
 
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Posted: #27
1. Chase you sound like a real reasonable guy.
2. I don't care who was injured for USC, if they fielded their backups or 3rd stringers they still should have waxed Stanford at home, and that is a fact.
3. USC has had edges in the Rose Bowl because of the home considerations, no travel, familarity or whatever. They have always had an edge. During the season the edges aren't the same, so don't think because they whipped Illinois the same thing will happen to OSU.
4. A big factor early in the season is # of returning starters, Good cappers will use this to find sleeper teams early on, typically if a team has 14 or more ret. starters that will be a good thing as you would rather not have new starters at key spot because they are ??
 
     So OSU has I believe 19 returning starters which is unheard of and many of these guys were All Big 10 or some All Americans even or award winners, anyway this will be a very stron team, and if you bet on OSU in some of their great seasons, they have put up some great ATS records as they will do nothing but cover games.
 
   So non-believers if you hate OSU that bad just bet against them all year and see how really broke you become by the end of the year.
 
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Posted: #28
1. Chase does sound like a reasonable guy.
2. What was OSU's excuse for losing at home to Ill? They were completely healthy, yes?
3. I'm not saying USC will demolish OSU like they did Illinois..........but they do have two weeks to prepare..........& the atmosphere for this game will be more like a Rose Bowl, not a mid-season game vs Stanford.
4. Good cappers will also realize that returning a bunch of starters doesn't always guarantee a team will be better than the year before..........particularly if that team was a bit fraudulent.

  The season is still 4 months away.........a lot can happen between now & then.
 
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Posted: #29
Mugg - There was no excuse for OSU losing to Illinois. Now ill. was obviously a much better team than Stanfvord though. OSu didn't play their game and ill. played perfect.
 
     There are no guarantees but the returning starters angle predicts very well teams that will cover the spread. Also 9 times out of 10 a team retuning 14 + starters WILL be better than last season. And  if you look at the returning starters for OSU many of them were award winners and will be top picks so this is not like Duke or Baylor returning a lot of starters.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

Mugg - There was no excuse for OSU losing to Illinois. Now ill. was obviously a much better team than Stanfvord though. OSu didn't play their game and ill. played perfect.
 
     There are no guarantees but the returning starters angle predicts very well teams that will cover the spread. Also 9 times out of 10 a team retuning 14 + starters WILL be better than last season. And  if you look at the returning starters for OSU many of them were award winners and will be top picks so this is not like Duke or Baylor returning a lot of starters.

 

Do you really consider returning starters as an angle when related to point spreads?

 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
returning starters, early in the year, of course. If ou have a new QB the team may struggle early in the year. They are probably playing a cupcake but they will be favored pretty high and it may be tough to cover that spread. Would you rather have all new players, or all players that have experience ? Typically players are much better as an upperclassman then they were as an underclassman.
 
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Posted: #33
This is true, but the lines are set with these things in mind. If they aren't they are quickly pounded into shape.
 
I done some quick research for you. The following are all the teams from the major conferences who entered last season with 16 or more starters(ATS record). South Carolina (5-6),Vandy(5-6),Wisky(4-7),Purdue(5-5-1),Illinois(7-4),NW(4-7),Indy(7-4),V.T.(7-5),Miami(4-8),UVA(5-7),B.C.(6-6),USC(6-6),UCLA(8-4),Oregon St.(7-4),Arizona(6-5),Stanford(5-7),USF(7-4).
 
ATS record 98-95-1  An amazing 50.777 winning percentage.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

 Would you rather have all new players, or all players that have experience ? 

Good question. It depends on the group of players. If we're talking about this group of Suckeyes that are returning coming off of back-to-back embarrassing bowl games, then I would rather have a new set of players that could enter a big game with confidence.

All USC has to do is stop Wells, which is not hard. All they have to do is watch the LSU film. After the 1st quarter, LSU used man-to-man coverage against OSU's WRs and put 8 in the box and shut Wells down. Therefore shutting the Suckeyes down.

 
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Posted: #35
d14 - I think this group of Buckeyes has a ton of confidence , after all they have won as many or more games than any other college team the last 3 years. And they've won some big games too.
 
kaplan, impressive stats, but early in the year this trend is gonna be more useful. Later on line value is going to be lost. 10 years ago and before this trend was more solid but the books have caught up to it. But with your stats you can see most of those teams went to bowls and almost all of them had improved seasons from the year before.
      I would say also look at the quality of starters returning, when you have some ALL Americans, award winners, All Big 11, and guys who would have been top draft picks, and you have 19 returning starters, you have a powerful combination. After all, most teams in this situation would have their teams ravaged by the draft.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

d14 - I think this group of Buckeyes has a ton of confidence , after all they have won as many or more games than any other college team the last 3 years. And they've won some big games too.
 
kaplan, impressive stats, but early in the year this trend is gonna be more useful. Later on line value is going to be lost. 10 years ago and before this trend was more solid but the books have caught up to it. But with your stats you can see most of those teams went to bowls and almost all of them had improved seasons from the year before.
      I would say also look at the quality of starters returning, when you have some ALL Americans, award winners, All Big 11, and guys who would have been top draft picks, and you have 19 returning starters, you have a powerful combination. After all, most teams in this situation would have their teams ravaged by the draft.

Godfather16, I agree that they have plenty of confidence when playing in the Big 10, but history with this group of players gives them no reason to feel confident going into a big game such as the USC game.

 
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Posted: #37
The big 10 has held it's own in the bowls and in non conf games, but people think they aren't any good. Well 10 of the 11 teams were bowl eligible last year, showing the depth and balance of this conference. Most of the top and average teams have home fields where not too many teams want to travel to either. I understand that the SEC has it's TV deal with CBS, so the Big 10 and all the other BCS teams have to split time with ABC and ESPN. The SEC gets a lot of hype. So keep overlooking the Big 10. By the way anytime you travel to Texas, Michigan, or Penn st and dominate that will give you some confidence.
 
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Posted: #38
MY BUCKEYES ITCH
 
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Posted: #39
Ohio St wins this one
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

Well 10 of the 11 teams were bowl eligible last year, showing the depth and balance of this conference. 

What was their bowl record again?

 
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Posted: #41
I feel quite comfortable with my linemaking ability and can assure anyone that if USC is posted as a 2 1/2-point favorite in this game, it will resemble a "Who" concert as people make a mad rush with double-fisted cash to the windows.
 
In all seriousness, USC opens as a 6-point favorite here. Fair, unfair or somewhere in between, the betting public _ as a whole _ does not respect the Buckeyes in this type of setting.
 
Good luck and let's check back on this one,
Paul
 
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Posted: #42
Paul, that's fine, put USC -6 and you will get tons of both sharp and square action on OSU. The Buckeyes are going to hyped a lot this summer and will likely be the #1 ranked team. So you wanna give the #1 team 6 points? OK. The fact is that USC has underachieved the last 3 seasons, they had what was touted as the best team ever, and they lost to Texas in 2005. In 2006 they struggled at times, and 2007 they struggled for 1/2 of the year. And last year they struggled vs some pretty bad teams. S basically USc looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane.
 
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Posted: #43
again....speed kills
ohio states speed-or lack of
 
USC rolls
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

Paul, that's fine, put USC -6 and you will get tons of both sharp and square action on OSU. The Buckeyes are going to hyped a lot this summer and will likely be the #1 ranked team. So you wanna give the #1 team 6 points? OK. The fact is that USC has underachieved the last 3 seasons, they had what was touted as the best team ever, and they lost to Texas in 2005. In 2006 they struggled at times, and 2007 they struggled for 1/2 of the year. And last year they struggled vs some pretty bad teams. S basically USc looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane.

This might be the funniest post by you, maybe even more funny than your comment about Boeckman being a potential 1st round pick. Sorry people think so highly of USC.

 
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Posted: #45
people in S Cal think highly of USC, that's about it. But when you lose to Stanford, you are chumps. And your backups should have beaten Stanford. And when you struggle to beat Wash at your place, a team that OSU dominated, then you are chumps. And when you almost lose to Arizona, you are punks.
 
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Posted: #46
USC -6.5 Just a guess
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

people in S Cal think highly of USC, that's about it. But when you lose to Stanford, you are chumps. And your backups should have beaten Stanford. And when you struggle to beat Wash at your place, a team that OSU dominated, then you are chumps. And when you almost lose to Arizona, you are punks.

OSU dominated Washington? They were fuckin losing at the half! Threw a fluke td in the 4th & then on what should've been a kneel-down on the last play of the game, they hand it off & break one for 40 yds...............they didn't dominate anything.
  When you lose to Illinois at home, a team USC dominated, you ain't shit.
 
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Posted: #48

usc rolls here

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

Paul, that's fine, put USC -6 and you will get tons of both sharp and square action on OSU. The Buckeyes are going to hyped a lot this summer and will likely be the #1 ranked team. So you wanna give the #1 team 6 points? OK. The fact is that USC has underachieved the last 3 seasons, they had what was touted as the best team ever, and they lost to Texas in 2005. In 2006 they struggled at times, and 2007 they struggled for 1/2 of the year. And last year they struggled vs some pretty bad teams. S basically USc looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane.

 

You sure use that phrase a lot. How many best teams ever are there?

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

135 days until the big game, OSU at USC, the biggest early - season game in a long time. It will be #1 vs #2. In what order who knows. Who wants to go out on a limb and say the Buckeyes get whipped? They are loaded, perhaps more so than any other team ever.

 

The Buckeyes are loaded more than any other team ever?  I hope you were trying to make a joke.

 

USC has outrecruited Ohio State every year.  Ohio State is not onlt NOT the most talented team ever, but they will not be the most talented on the field when they play USC.

 

Recruiting services spread their stars around, so every region gets so many "5 star" recruits.  hoestly, Norhern 5-stars are often not as good as other areas 4-star recruits. 

 

NFL teams have more players from Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, etc. than Ohio.  Yet Ohio has all those supposed 5-star recruits.  Then Ohio State gets to the MNC game, and those super recruits get whipped.

 

California has a lot of goo players and USC gets who they want.  USC will be far more talented, and should wipe the floor with tOSU depending on how USC's new QB comes along.

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