When you really think about it, SD was over valued here. Think about this for a sec. They beat Fresno State 17-3 earlier in the year. So they win by 14 vs maybe the worst team in the conference on the road. 10 was as high as you could have possibly made this spread. Hence, there was no value. Between 7 and 9 is probably where it should have been. Maybe 8. That's about where I would have had it I think. So if you get a line of -4 or -5 there is some value. One thing I think I need to do is start making my own lines and comparing them to Vegas, and if Vegas is off by a significant margin bet it.
As an fyi, I have the WV game at WV -2. That game I would ignore the spread and take them money line. I would project they win this game more than 50% of the time and you're getting plus money if you bet them ML so there is value there.
And look Wyoming beat Boise. While Wyoming is not that good obv, the fact of the matter is they are clearly better than the likes of UNLV, Utah State, Colorado St, etc who SD St has played this year. Wyoming is better on D than those teams, despite a bad performance last week. And more consistent on offense. They had a chance to win this game outright and they did. You can't lay 10 to a team who you can see actually winning the game.
The big shock of the day is really Oregon winning at Utah. Oregon is a bad, bad team. They are one of the worst defenses in Div 1 football. And Utah has played pretty well overall this season. That was a bizarre outcome.
They do think for themselves.
But feel bad for them if they don't follow my picks after thinking, not if they do follow.
The rowboat got us to shore and anyone who didn't play that year long scouting of UNM on my part and their dumpster fire of a performance tonight, were out to sea while we were on the shore waving a white hanky at them with our winnings.
Juice lost tonight and tomorrow it's coming back with a +ML hit and two good angles.
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