Sam Hst. and Why

We had 2 positive weeks then hit a little bit of a snag.   Fiu - didn't do it, Af/Wyo  under came thru as well as a 3 team small parlay - then Flaat came out flat - then took the lead and thought we had a chance but no.  West Va/Tcu didn't get the over - but Kent St came thru.    We lost some lunch money last week in posted plays.   Let's look at some numbers:  

  Sam Hst.   119 55 155 108

-6   Mizzst   90 129 152 99

Mizzst opened at -6 and is currently around 6 at most places (madduxsports.com) .    Mizzst is better in Total off. at 90 vs 119;   Sagarin rank at 152 vs 155 and sched strength at 99 vice 108.   Sam Hst. is only better in Total Def at 55 vs 129.    Based on prev games with an opening line of -6 for the home team and this scenario - history tells us the away team keeps it close and sometimes wins it straight up.   Recently we had Wyo pull it out in ot against SJ st. 16-13 and a while back Wk pull it out against Marshall   23-26  - and a couple of others.   My Play tonite:

1.  Sam Hst  +6    

Good luck all.    

@TheBuddah

 BOL on SHSU 

@sportschat

 Thanks bud and back at ya

@TheBuddah

 Bol tonight Bro

@TheBuddah

 GL I been on Sam Houston the last few weeks  & they haven’t come through, hopefully the tonight is the night, these little schools are more unpredictable 

@ULLafayettekid

 It’s because they’re god awful. Aint no way anyone should be capping these games. 

@drewski124

 I strongly disagree - Kent state last week is a good example .     I look at every game - if there is data supporting it - and I have rationale ,  I bet it - if not I don’t .    Every day there’s a possible opportunity - just need solid rationale .    

@ULLafayettekid

 I hope so .  Bol to ya . 

@Maukaboy

 Back at ya bud . 

@vankiep_0007

Thanks bud - back at ya .  

@Capppro69

 Thanks bud back at ya 

@TheBuddah

 This game is going over 

@WidespreadPanic

 Some of the data I collect indicated that some not - so avoided that - either Bol to ya