An 8-8 (.500) outcome here last week. Over fourteen weeks; just four were losers. However, the overall record was less impressive (97-86-1, .530). The historical database does not allow the box to do neutral site games so, relegated to the four conference games on home turf, it likes none this week. It liked KennesawSt earlier in the week when it was a small dog, but not now at -2.5. So it goes -- the Human Administrator forever a slave to that rote output.
The algorithm’s top pick did bring-value in 2025 (9-5, .643) but, said prior, the lack of intrinsic system rank-value this year was disappointing. It has been present in all recent years. Anyway, some (boring) final tech thoughts in departing:
2025 CATEGORIES
Over 745 FBS non-neutral site games, Home Favs went 231-217-12 (.516), and Home Dogs went 137-139-9 (.496). So, we’d be challenged to find any strategic direction in those numbers. As we know, such percentages all go to .500 over time. Making it a tough game to play.....
ARTIFICIAL INTEL
SpreadMargin (SM) is the amount a team covers by -- or fails to cover. Over the last eleven seasons (7583 games), the average SM was 12.23 points. Over this season thus far, the average SM is 12.08; a comparative reduction of one percent. When I did that analysis following week 10/4, the SM was 11.51 (six percent). That suggests The Man was considerably less-proficient setting his line during the latter-part of the season. I did not expect that to happen. Nonetheless, if we’re all betting into a line that improves by one-percent annually – we’re riding a horse that eventually won’t be worth hefting a saddle for.
LARGE JUICE
Consider standard juice (-110) as an additive absolute value. In such a case, -110 equals 220 for talking purposes. I currently utilize four outlets; one good (216), and two standard (220 & 221). While a fourth outlet went super-greedy on me this year (228), which is NG and largely unsustainable in terms of any profit-making. I know folks are reluctant to reply here, but I would like to know other experiences & opinion on such drift. Like the casino floor replacing tables with higher-margin slot machines, I’m not liking the new look.
NIL & PORTAL IMPACT
I have friends who kindly assuage my non-stellar 2025 performance onto one or both of these elements. In short though; I’m not a believer. Rather, I believe the NIL and the Portal are micros that feed the macro. And that towering macro remains the line (see AI above). So, in the end, that challenging line is what has to be overcome; large and imposing in every game.
As I take my leave, I hope you found this corner of the forum mildly entertaining; and occasionally insightful/helpful. I will now slide back into the dungeon for my off-season research, bringing a new RoboCap version to the fore in 2026.
Good luck,
TheKingfish
Hot Forum Topics
