Public Indicator Calculations 2025

19% profit is a pretty good slice of the bookie's pie. Keep it up, Hoo!

@HooAlum

 Have a Friday Update?

@HooAlum

Friday Afternoon Update.  Do not know if I will be back by a computer before the 8pm kickoff in the ACC.  As a note, this week some of the data feeds are coming in funky.  It happens but usually corrects (it is also why favorites or often early choices that settle out).  I have not see na recalibration yet the week so watching closely and feel some of the favorites might be overvalued at this stage.  Unfortunately, it might affect the games tonight but true to teh numbers I have to stick with them for now at what seems an elevated level.  (I do not see the choices changing, just the unit/confidence amounts)

Florida State (6 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator, lopsided wagering, reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

UNLV (2 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, outweighs bye week return

NEW GAME: Ohio State (7 units - feels very bloated and expect this to change): low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp indicators outweighs over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweighs line movement

NEW GAME: Louisville (2 units): sharp indicators outweighs low handle favorite bye week return

NEW GAME: Kansas (1 unit): line movement 

Oregon (3 units): low ticket handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

CHANGE: Kentucky (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh bye week return

Syracuse (2 units): lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze, bye week return outweighs style points, bye week return

Pittsburgh (8 units): SKS, sharp indicators

Cincinnati (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

NEW GAME: Colorado (4 units): home underdog low handle, sharp indicators, bye week return

Very hard to believe sharp money is backing Florida State. They're 0-7 on the road in conference games in past 2 seasons. And, Castellanos is such a Jekyll & Hyde quarterback. They should do to FLA St what they did to Georgia Tech 

I agree.  Not a single sharp I know is on Fl St.  

I’m all over Florida State -6.5 @HooAlum.  Looking forward to cash in tonight!

@HooAlum

 Late night update, Florida St unfortunately kept its 6 unit.  They can still pull it out but a frustrating watch as they have been the better team but cannot finish.  I'll post Saturday over the next hour

UNLV (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators, outweighs bye week return

@incognegro

 The sharps are on NC State (cut and paste was off from earlier in the week but you can see the outweigh language) but the other tells have been strong this year outweighed them.  Sharp at present look prescient for tonight.

@HooAlum

Late night for tomorrow

Ohio State (6 units);   low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators outweighs over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators outweighs line movement

Louisville (2 units): sharp indicators outweighs low handle favorite bye week return

Kansas (1 unit): line movement

Oregon (2 units): low ticket handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

CHANGE: Vanderbilt (3 units):low ticket favorite, bye week return

Syracuse (2 units): lopsided wagering, over/under squeeze, bye week return outweighs style points, bye week return

Pittsburgh (8 units): SKS, sharp indicators

Cincinnati (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Colorado (5 units): home underdog low handle, sharp indicators, bye week return

Even the sharps are capable of dropping passes.

GL 

@HooAlum

 Morning Update.  1-1 but lost the bigger game last night.  A few big bets pulled back and looks like Atlanta is where the action is on this weekend.

Ohio State (3 units);   low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

@HooAlum

Afternoon update

Southern Cal-Oregon (No Bet): line movement balanced by sharp indicators

Vanderbilt (3 units):low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, bye week return outweighs sharp indicators

Syracuse (2 units):  over/under squeeze, bye week return lopsided wagering outweighs style points, line movement

Utah (3 units): sharp indicators, style points

@HooAlum

Decent morning with a profit made to make up for last night so running about equal.  The call is on the visitors in Atlanta.  Pitt better show the Irish game was an aberration and not their usual.  This is likely the last update given travel this evening

Pittsburgh (6 units): SKS, sharp indicators outweighs low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Nebraska (2 units): reverse movement, bye week return

CHANGE: Cincinnati-BYU (No Bet): sharp indicators balanced by low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Colorado (1 unit): sharp indicators, bye week return outweighs low ticket and handle favorite lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Pittsburgh saved the week in style.  Got a little nervy but definitely the correct call.  A LOT of games already have hit the requisite handle this week.

LAST WEEK RECORD: 8-7

SEASON RECORD: 114-80 (58.76%)

LAST WEEK REVENUE: 39.9 units on 35 units wagered

SEASON RECORD: 750.7 units on 626.5 wagered (19.82% profit)

************

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Early Body Clock: 77.78%

SKS: 65.45%

Lopsided Wagering: 63.08%

Steam: 62.50%

Sharp Indicator: 60.63%

Style Points: 60%

Low Ticket Favorite: 59.05%

Low Handle Home Underdog: 58.62%

Low Handle Favorite: 54.81%

Line Movement: 52.7%

Bye Week Return: 42.11%

Over/Under Squeeze: 38.71%

Reverse Movement: 35.29%

************

EARLY WEEKLY UPDATE (things are likely to change)

Memphis (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Ole Miss (1 unit): low ticket favorite outweighs home underdog low handle

Iowa (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicator outweighs home underdog low handle, lopsided wagering

Kansas (3 units): early body clock, line movement, home underdog low handle, reverse movement outweighs sharp indicators

Georgia (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Texas-Texas A&M (No Bet): No indicators

Purdue (1 unit): home underdog low handle, over/under squeeze, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Louisville (1 unit): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp indicators

Clemson-South Carolina (No Bet): No indicators

Ohio State (2 units): sharp indicators

Miami (7 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators

Tennessee (4.5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, SKS

LSU-Oklahoma (No Bet): Sharp Indicators balanced by over/under squeeze, lopsided wagering

NC State (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Auburn (2 units): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Stanford (1 unit): home underdog low handle, over/under squeeze outweighs style points

Finally, I had an input error that is quite embarrassing, I simply never input Penn St's sharp indicator in favor of the Nittney Lions.  It was simply left blank from the composite sharp sheet to the master sheet.  Not a huge deal but it did change a modest Husker play to a single unit PSU play.  Sorry for those that were misled by a bad data entry.  The last similar mistake went the opposite way where the incorrect data led to a winner so proof it cuts both ways.

Thanks and good luck this week

Line movement from 5.5 to 4.5 Memphis v Navy.

@Brewmeister

I seeing the line now at -3.5 

@HooAlum

Here is a Wednesday night update before the big weekend begins

CHANGE: Navy (1 unit): line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Ole Miss (2 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs home underdog low handle

Nebraska-Iowa (No Bet): line movement, sharp indicator balanced by home underdog low handle, lopsided wagering

Kansas (6 units): early body clock, line movement, reverse movement sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Georgia (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Texas-Texas A&M (No Bet): No indicators

Purdue (1 unit): over/under squeeze, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators

Louisville (2 units): low ticket favorite

Clemson (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Ohio State (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh home underdog low handle

Miami (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators outweigh reverse movement

Tennessee (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, SKS

LSU-Oklahoma (No Bet): Sharp Indicators balanced by over/under squeeze, lopsided wagering

NC State (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Auburn (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite

Stanford (1 unit): home underdog low handle, over/under squeeze outweighs style points

@BoatRace

 yep, and that Memphis play disappeared just like that line margin did

@HooAlum

 Morning Update as thanksgiving will likely take up most of the day.  At present Navy still the 1 unit call due to line movement, sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite and lopsided wagering.  No guarantee of an update closer to gametime

I'm liking that Navy play. Their Wing-T offense has been wreaking havoc in the AAC and don't be surprised to see Horvath air it out a bit against a vulnerable Memphis secondary that ranks in the bottom fifth nationally in passing success rate. On top of that, the Middies will be in a must-win scenario to have a shot at the AAC title game.  

Of course having said that I could well have just put a pox on them. Forgive the departure from Hoo's indicator logic (though it now supports my blathering) and as usual BOL everyone either way...

Happy Thanksgiving. 

@HooAlum

Thursday night update

Ole Miss (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicator

Nebraska-Iowa (No Bet): line movement, sharp indicator balanced by home underdog low handle, lopsided wagering

Kansas (6 units): early body clock, line movement, reverse movement sharp indicators outweigh low handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Georgia (5 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Texas-Texas A&M (No Bet): No indicators

Purdue (3 units): over/under squeeze, home underdog low handle, sharp indicators

Louisville (1 unit): low ticket favorite outweighs sharp indicators

CHANGE: South Carolina (1 unit): sharp indicators outweigh lopsided wagering

Michigan-Ohio State (No Bet): sharp indicators balanced by line movement, home underdog low handle

Miami (6 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp indicators outweigh reverse movement

Tennessee (6 units): Sharp indicators, SKS

Oklahoma (2 units): Sharp Indicators, line movement balanced by over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Washington (1 unit): sharp indicators outweighs low ticket and handle, lopsided wagering

NC State (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators

Auburn (4 unit): sharp indicators, home underdog low handle

Stanford (1 unit): home underdog low handle, over/under squeeze outweighs style points