Posted:
#326
Sharp money on Duke? More like the entire Duke coaching staff on the take …
Public Indicator Calculations 2025
Posted:
#328
@HooAlum
Looking an 0-3 afternoon in the face. Hopefully the evening is better. Big play will be TCU in dome form late night. Might even supersede the failed Duke pick.
Utah (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering outweighs sharp indicators
Florida (2 units): reverse movement, line movement, outweighs sharp indicator
Texas (2 units): sharp indicator, line movement, steam, bye week return outweighs low ticket and handle favorite
Missouri (3 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicator
Posted:
#332
@JSN2Deep
actually, my bank roll is pretty good, but if you actually educated yourself instead of blindly being loyal to his plays, you'd see what i mean. use your brain next time and do your research, you're going to find that his stuff is outdated. his analytics are wrong. Also I think you also need to learn how to read because nowhere did i say i lost a lot of money.
Posted:
#333
@Boisestateand8
Im actually here trying to get you all to understand and to do your own research instead of blindly betting his plays. blindly betting his the make of someone who doesnt put in the work. you guys are way too funny thinking im crying, im here trying to help everyone and Hoo. you need to learn
Posted:
#335
Quote Originally Posted by hailbrady:
@Boisestateand8 Im actually here trying to get you all to understand and to do your own research instead of blindly betting his plays. blindly betting his the make of someone who doesnt put in the work. you guys are way too funny thinking im crying, im here trying to help everyone and Hoo. you need to learn
@Boisestateand8 Im actually here trying to get you all to understand and to do your own research instead of blindly betting his plays. blindly betting his the make of someone who doesnt put in the work. you guys are way too funny thinking im crying, im here trying to help everyone and Hoo. you need to learn
You don't like his thread? Then why are you here? And for the record I don't tail anyone. I'm actually on Ole Miss and Georgia tonight. And UCLA.
Posted:
#349
@HooAlum
Not the best week with a losing week and Duke and TCU were disappointing (Clemson was good if you got on early in the weeknd). Hope for better this week. Just so folks know there is a regression analysis done throughout the season on the weights to the degree it affects the 5 year average on an indicator (for example less emphasis on reverse movement and more on lopsided wagering given the performance of each this year) . Though the biggest regression analysis is done in the offseason with all the data from the prior season blew to be sliced and diced.
I give the reasoning behind each game not just for transparency but also so you can make your own analysis. If there is an indicator you do not like or feel uneasy about this thread's analysis then by all means stay away. If there is an indicator you really like then by all means lean into it (though that burned all of us with Cincinnati this week).
Each week at this time, I post the performance of indicators for the season to date so you can see for yourself and make your own calls. My weights are simply tied to past performance and are constantly adjusted but are far from infallible. Thuds, I do encourage folks to do their own work but hopefully you can use some of my findings to help.
WEEKLY RECORD: 7-8
WEEKLY REVENUE: 32.3 on 38 wagered
SEASON RECORD: 107-74 (59.12%)
SEASON REVENUE: 710.8 units on 593.5 wagered (19.76% profit)
****************
Style Points: 100%
Early Body Clock Start: 77.78%
SKS: 64.15%
Lopsided Wagering: 63.64%
Steam: 62.50%
Sharp Indicators: 62.36%
Home Underdog with Low Handle: 58.62%
Low Ticket Favorite: 56.70%
Line Movement: 54.55%
Low Handle Favorite: 53.68%
Bye Week Return: 43.75%
Over/Under Squeeze: 41.18%
Reverse Movement: 40%
**********
WAY Too Early Look at Week 13 - (remember favorites pop early in the week but many will shift to underdogs as the week goes along)
Florida State (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp indicator outweighs home underdog low handle
UNLV (2 units): low ticket low handle favorite, lopsided wagering, outweighs sharp indicators, bye week return
Oklahoma (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators
Oregon (4 units): low ticket favorite, sharp indicators
Vanderbilt (3 units sharp indicators, bye week return
Syracuse-Notre Dame (No bet): Sharp Indicator, style points outweigh over/under squeeze, bye week return
Pittsburgh (3 units): SKS
Cincinnati (1 unit): home underdog low handle
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