Nailed the Syracuse write up last week, as we all got the "Brohm game". Fell short on the Purdue total and Houston, thanks to their Swiss cheese defense late in the game. On to this week!
Tennessee @ South Carolina (-2.5)
If you believe in "stinky lines", this is one. Tennessee is coming off their smothering defensive performance vs Alabama in a huge home spot. Their defense was really impressive. Tennessee out gained Bama 347 to 201 and were +2 in the turnover battle. Alabama committed 4, yes, 4 turnovers in that game. Now Tennessee travels to South Carolina, where they match up against the #13 adjusted EPA offense in America led by extremely talented, and experienced, LaNorris Sellers. I love the way this offense is operating with a near 50% success rate and 7 yards per drop back. Sellers has 12 TDs to 4 INTs and has the mobility to avoid the UT DEs. Tennessee's offense, however, doesn't scare me. They were gifted 4 turnovers last week and struggled to pull away from Bama until late. They're 44th in adjusted metrics and just don't have anything they do overwhelmingly better than South Carolina. South Carolina is coming off the huge road win @ Florida, building momentum & having the bye week to digest it, and Tennessee is coming off the huge home win vs Bama and likely reading the news clippings from the prior week. I like the team that's coming in with their backs against the wall, 1-3 in conference, with motivation to get another massive win. Give me the Gamecocks -2.5 to put together another solid performance and beat UT at home.
4*** South Carolina -2.5 (-109)
Best of luck!
NC424
NightCap424
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Nailed the Syracuse write up last week, as we all got the "Brohm game". Fell short on the Purdue total and Houston, thanks to their Swiss cheese defense late in the game. On to this week!
Tennessee @ South Carolina (-2.5)
If you believe in "stinky lines", this is one. Tennessee is coming off their smothering defensive performance vs Alabama in a huge home spot. Their defense was really impressive. Tennessee out gained Bama 347 to 201 and were +2 in the turnover battle. Alabama committed 4, yes, 4 turnovers in that game. Now Tennessee travels to South Carolina, where they match up against the #13 adjusted EPA offense in America led by extremely talented, and experienced, LaNorris Sellers. I love the way this offense is operating with a near 50% success rate and 7 yards per drop back. Sellers has 12 TDs to 4 INTs and has the mobility to avoid the UT DEs. Tennessee's offense, however, doesn't scare me. They were gifted 4 turnovers last week and struggled to pull away from Bama until late. They're 44th in adjusted metrics and just don't have anything they do overwhelmingly better than South Carolina. South Carolina is coming off the huge road win @ Florida, building momentum & having the bye week to digest it, and Tennessee is coming off the huge home win vs Bama and likely reading the news clippings from the prior week. I like the team that's coming in with their backs against the wall, 1-3 in conference, with motivation to get another massive win. Give me the Gamecocks -2.5 to put together another solid performance and beat UT at home.
I did not get the best number here, but holy cow is this West Virginia defense bad (135th EPA nationally) and allowing nearly 8 yards per play. TCU? 9th with only a 38% success rate against opponent offenses. West Virginia have allowed 42, 52, 45, 41, 27 and 24....they can't stop a nose bleed. This is just what TCU's inconsistent offense needs at home. Could be a blood bath. I wish I got in on the earlier number, but this feels like a 20 point+ win.
NightCap424
Adding on...
1*** TCU -10.5 (-110)
I did not get the best number here, but holy cow is this West Virginia defense bad (135th EPA nationally) and allowing nearly 8 yards per play. TCU? 9th with only a 38% success rate against opponent offenses. West Virginia have allowed 42, 52, 45, 41, 27 and 24....they can't stop a nose bleed. This is just what TCU's inconsistent offense needs at home. Could be a blood bath. I wish I got in on the earlier number, but this feels like a 20 point+ win.
LETS GET IT!
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